Introduction to Zambia

Zambia is a landlocked country in southern Africa, with a population of 19.5 million.1 The country has a rural population of 55%2 and GDP per capita of $1,137.3, with more than 61% of the population living below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day.3 Zambia’s climate varies by geography between tropical monsoon and hot semi-arid, and in recent decades, the country has been experiencing increased severe and frequent seasonal floods, extreme temperature and drought.4 About 1.5 million smallholder farmers in Zambia, producing 80% of the domestic food supply, are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture and are thus extremely vulnerable to climate risks.5 Zambia is endowed with vast mineral resources, being ranked seventh in the world for copper production which contributes to over 70% of the nation’s foreign export revenue.6 While the southern African nation gained independence from British rule in 1964, colonial legacies of investment practices continue to maintain the country’s reliance on export-oriented agricultural and mining industries.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

In Zambia, the major climate hazards are flood, epidemic, and drought, accounting for 94% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.7 In the past four decades, the incidence of natural hazards has been on the rise in the landlocked nation with inadequate infrastructure and a high proportion of rural, low-income population. While the country experienced 3 separate years of intense flooding between 1980 and 2000, that number increased to 12 between 2001 and 2022 and with flood affecting over 700,000 people in 2020 alone.8 Between 2008 and 2021, over 100,000 people have been displaced internally in Zambia as a result of flooding.9 Zambia is also prone to droughts, particularly in the southern and western regions, where rainfall is generally lower than in other areas. In 2019-2020, a severe drought affected more than 2.3 million people and led to an increased risk of cholera outbreak.10 Such epidemics are a recurring hazard in Zambia with outbreaks coinciding with the rainy season from November to April.11

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Zambia is $22.15 billion12 with agriculture accounting for only 3.4%13 of it but employing 50%14 of the country’s workforce. Climate shocks such as severe droughts and floods are having significant impacts on agriculture, natural resources, and human health in Zambia. Intense and prolonged drought during the 2018-2019 rainfall season severely affected crop production leading to emergency levels of food insecurity in four districts and a rise in acute malnutrition to nearly 6%.15 In 2021, excessive rains leading to waterlogging of crop farms combined with high maize prices and pest infestations drove 1.18 million people, 10% of Zambia’s population, into acute food insecurity during the July - September period.16  With rising temperature due to climate change, the habitat suitability is expected to improve17 for crop pests and diseases which thrive in warmer environments. This will increase the likelihood of these pests infesting crops that were not previously at risk, with the potential of significantly increasing crop damage and yield losses. Zambia also faces significant threats from climate change mitigation strategies like increased adoption of clean energy technologies with critical mineral needs. Demand for copper, which accounts for 70% of Zambia’s export earnings, is expected to increase threefold by 2040.18 The Smoke Damage Act of 1935, a colonial-era law that protected mine operators from any liability for damage to human health, continues to shape copper mine development agreements.19 New investors elude legal ramification during stability periods for operating hazardous mines, leading to devastating impacts on human health, including increased incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis.20

Mapping Resilience and Migration Pathways

While the population of Zambia represents 0.25 percent of the world's total population21 , and is responsible for only 0.01 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission22 , the southern African nation is grappling with the destructive impacts of climate change in the form of severe droughts, intense floods and recurring epidemics. Zambia pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 25% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario or 47% with substantial international support estimated at USD $35 billion.23  The adaptation measures in Zambia's Nationally Determined Contribution are focused on increasing the resilience of its agriculture sector and strategic infrastructure, as well as enhancing capacity building and finance for adaptation measures.24 Priority areas include guaranteeing food security through diversification and promotion of Climate Smart Agriculture, enhancing climate information delivery for early warning, conserving water catchment areas, and initializing sustainable land use planning practices.25 Zambia is also adopting natured-based adaptation solutions by restoring wetlands and forests to absorb excess rainwater during floods and provide sources of water during droughts.26 Such initiatives have great potential for advancing climate-resilient agriculture techniques and improving the rural livelihood of frontline communities.

Necessary Changes

The worsening impacts of climate change on Zambia reinforces the need for a just transition that is inclusive of underserved and overburdened communities. It is critical to tackle Zambia’s extreme vulnerability to food insecurity by increasing international financing support for Zambia’s mitigation and adaptation measures, including strengthening climate-smart agriculture practices for small-holder farmers, as well as promoting livelihood reconstruction and diversification.27 In addition, the international community must take into account the social and environmental costs of extracting minerals for use in global decarbonization efforts, and work to ensure that these costs are not borne by the most vulnerable countries.  Inherited colonial economic structures in Zambia have left the state defenseless against world copper prices, and limited formal employment opportunities to a minority of Zambians.28 The mining industry in Zambia continues to perpetuate colonial-era power imbalances, in which risks and harms are disproportionately borne by low-income mining communities.