Introduction to Vietnam

Vietnam is a coastal country located in the eastern peninsula of Southeast Asia. Its population of 98,186,8561 is about 61% rural.2 From 2014-2020, Vietnam has experienced a sharp decline in poverty3 , but an increase in income inequality in terms of its GINI index from 2014-2020.4 The most recent data in 2015 showed ethnic minorities accounted for 15% of the population, but over 50% of those in poverty.5 Due to the extensive coastline of Vietnam, the country experiences primarily coastal weather with the northern region characterized by its monsoon-influenced humid tropical climate, the central region with a similar tropical monsoon climate, and the south varying between tropical savanna and tropical monsoon climate.6 Along with its annual monsoon season, the country is experiencing an array of increasingly severe weather events including flooding, tropical cyclones, storms, extreme temperatures, epidemics, and droughts.7 In terms of economic dynamics, Vietnam has been defined by its “doi moi'' market liberalization economic policy that has transformed Vietnam into a primarily export-based economy to the benefit of US and Chinese economic interests. Although it has reduced poverty as a whole, this policy has had the effect of displacing the country’s largely self-sustaining, small-scale8 , and ethnic minority9 agricultural workers to urban centers to produce cheap, competitive goods for export.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Vietnam is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, experiencing high levels of risk in terms of disasters and ranks 99 out of 191 countries in the 2023 Risk Inform Index.10 For example, over 70% of Vietnam’s population lives in coastal and low-lying deltas.11 This exposes Vietnam, especially coastline communities, to severe disasters such as typhoons, storms, and flooding. From 2008-2022, there were over 4.8 million internal displacements associated with 172 severe storms and 558,000 internal displacements due to 73 other disaster events such as flooding.12 Vietnam is also at risk for overlapping typhoons and monsoon season which, in 2020, led to the country having its highest amount of internal displacements on record with 1.3 million internal displacements as a result of 7 successive tropical storms and cyclones.13  Most recently, Vietnam experienced another typhoon in September of 2022 known as Typhoon Noru that led to over 400,000 individuals being evacuated and displaced from their homes, significant damage to around 2,700 homes,14 and destruction to agricultural and industrial centers.15 As Vietnam continues experiencing the devastating effects of sea level rise, severe natural disasters, and other climate events, predictive models estimate a worst case scenario of 3.1 million Vietnamese internally displaced by 2050.16

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Vietnam currently has a GDP of 408.8 billion.17 While agriculture only accounts for 13% of national GDP, this industry employs and sustains over 45% of the active labor force in Vietnam.18 Climate change has caused surpluses and deficits of rainfall across Vietnam and also temperature changes. This has significantly affected the agricultural sector in terms of rice cultivation and crop yields.19 Moreover, sea level rise has played a major role in increasing crop damage as well as pollution of local water streams and, by 2030, saltwater intrusion is predicted to affect over 24,000 ha of agricultural land.20 In 2016, the most vulnerable regions, such as the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands, experienced a decline of agricultural GDP to 1.4% as compared to 2.4% in 2015 as a result of climate change. An increase of just 1 meter of sea level would affect 30-40% of agricultural and natural land in 10 provinces of the Mekong Delta and affect 40% of rice cultivation in the area.21 Its impacts are expected to lead to an entire 0.7-2.4% decrease in GDP by 2050.22 As a whole, this is likely to impact food security as well as individual livelihoods due to the prevalence of subsistence agriculture. Overall, due to short-term and long-term climate impacts, Vietnam is estimated to have lost 10 billion, or 2.3% of its GDP in 2020 due to climate change, and this number is expected to rise to between 12-14.5% of GDP by 2050.23

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Vietnam, a country that makes up 1.23% of the world’s population, contributes 0.88% of global carbon emissions. Even with such a small contribution to global emissions, Vietnam, in 2022, committed to 15.8% reduction in emissions by 2030 under the Paris Agreement Business as Usual Scenario (BAU) and 43.5% reduction by 2030 in the case of international support. Vietnam intends to mitigate and adapt to current challenges through focus areas of energy, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry, waste and industrial processes. In terms of deforestation and land degradation as part of its industrial needs, Vietnam joined the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement, the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, to reverse these occurrences by 2030. Vietnam has already made significant progress towards this goal as it has implemented policy that has resulted in the planting of over 4.16M ha of forests in recent years and harvesting of forests has increased from 3M m3 in 2005 to 27M m3 in 2019.24 Moreover, national forest cover has increased from 27% in 1989 to around 42% in 2020.25 In terms of energy and transportation, Vietnam also has a target for net zero emissions by 2050 as defined by the Nationally Defined Contributions of 2022 and a 30% reduction of methane emissions by 2030 based on the Global Methane Pledge. This reduction of methane will come through investment in methane capture, upgrading agricultural processes to reduce emissions, updating water and solid waste management systems, improving upon dissemination of information, etc.26 In regards to displacement, Vietnam has failed to commit or meet international standards for climate migration adaptation. This includes disaster monitoring as well as forecasting systems that have not been updated to meet international regulations, a scarcity of solutions aimed at enhancing the adaptability and disaster prevention capabilities within communities, and financial difficulties to invest in key infrastructure as well as efficient migration strategies.16

Necessary Changes

Vietnam has taken significant initiative to mitigate its emissions, curb land degradation as well as deforestation, and take actionable steps towards adaptive resilience measures in many other sectors. However, there is a gap in Vietnam’s commitments including displacement migration and adaptation strategies. It is crucial that Vietnam takes significant steps to meet international standards for climate change prevention and response measures. 

International pressures have also come at the cost of the efforts for a decentralized, diversified economy as they have historically pushed Vietnam to focus on extractive industries such as manufacturing. From a perspective of recognizing Vietnam’s colonial past, it is crucial for the international community to commit to an alleviation of external pressures as well as potential reparations that can contribute to necessary adaptive measures to Vietnam’s climate crisis, including disaster response. This also requires placing an emphasis on the Vietnamese government to create a democratic economy that develops its policies to prioritize participation as well as demands of self-sustaining laborers in Vietnam’s in their efforts to create an equitable transition. This brings a sense of urgency to not only support a just transition to a regenerative economy, but for the international community to utilize its resources to upend worsening climate impacts as a result of greenhouse gas emissions.

The widespread devastation due to climate change impacts and natural disasters demonstrates the need for a just and sustainable transition that takes into account the needs of those in the most vulnerable regions such as the Mekong Delta. As those, especially in these vulnerable regions, are dependent on the agricultural sector, it remains important to build a local, diversified economy focused on sustaining individual laborers in their daily needs.