Introduction to Vanuatu

Vanuatu is a country situated in Oceania, more specifically Melanesia, and consists of 83 individual islands. Its population is 326,7401 of which 74%2 of the total population is rural. Most recent data demonstrates around 35% of the population earns less than $3.653 a day and 76% earns less than $6.85 a day.4 There is also significant income inequality as the lowest 20% of the population, in terms of wealth, make up only 7.5% of the country’s income.5 Vanuatu is characterized primarily by a tropical rainforest climate with low variation in temperature and high precipitation rates. Due to its precarious nature as many small-islands, exposure to natural disasters, and regions located in low-lying coastal areas, Vanuatu is significantly vulnerable to climate hazards. This includes droughts, flooding, sea-level rise, rising temperatures, tsunamis, earthquakes, and cyclones.6 The country contains a mixed economy with 67% of its GDP provided by the service sector, 22% by agriculture, and 11% by other industries.7 Of that, over 65% of the population rely on subsistence agriculture as source income employment and 61% of households partake in sustenance fishing.8 Vanuatu’s reliance on climate-sensitive industries for national income as well as household survival, compounded with increasing severity of climate change effects, severely expose Vanuatu to potential economic or climate-related fluctuations.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Vanuatu currently ranks 62 out of 191 countries in the 2024 Risk Inform Index.9 As physical labor makes up a significant portion of employment as well as subsistence, a majority of the population is exposed to extreme weather effects such as heat stress.10 Under the A1B emissions model, heat-related deaths per year within the Australiasian region could grow by 437% by 2050.11 These climate impacts have only worsened as reported climate disasters such as flooding have increased in frequency and magnitude. For example, between 2008-2014 Vanuatu experienced 5 reported disaster events that were associated with 1,500 internal displacements. However, between 2015-2022, this increased to over 16 disaster events reported within this period totaling over 174,000 internal displacements.12 Vanuatu is further exposed to worsening cyclones. For example, Vanuatu experienced one of the most intense cyclones ever recorded in the Pacific, Cyclone Pam which, in 2015, left 166,000 individuals affected by the storm, certain islands such as the Erromango Island having 90% of its shelters wiped out, and 95% of food crops being destroyed in affected regions.13 Vanuatu is also vulnerable to simultaneous disasters such as the 2020 Hurricane Harold that took place during Covid-19 outbreak and 2022 with two simultaneous hurricanes of Cyclone Judy and Cyclone Kevin. During the 2020 Hurricane Harold, limited and overcrowding of emergency shelters led to reports of individuals sleeping outside on concrete slabs and caused severe inequity in preventing women as well as marginalized groups from accessing water points or latrines.14

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Vanuatu currently has a GDP of $984 million USD.15 As stated before, Vanuatu is heavily dependent on agriculture as well as fishing for daily sustenance of individual households. Moreover, 40% of Vanuatu’s GDP is tied to tourism, resulting in tourism equating to its largest industry. As a result of climate change, Vanuatu has experienced severe impacts to its economic sectors and economy as a whole. For instance, the economic damages associated with Cyclone Pam were estimated to be equivalent to around 64% of GDP.16 Similarly, the impacts of Hurricane Harold in 2020 led to a 10% decrease in GDP.17 In terms of the agricultural sector, the simultaneous cyclones of 2022 led to 120 million USD in damage to the agricultural sector, certain agricultural households experiencing a 40% loss of income, and food insecurity due to heavy disruption to crucial subsistence agriculture.18 Overall, disasters are estimated to cost 6% of Vanuatu’s GDP yearly.16

Longer-term industry-specific impacts include effects to the tourism industry such as sea-level rise as well as coastal erosion that pose potential threats to coastline beaches and recreational diving spots that would likely reduce Vanuatu's allure within the tourism industry.19 Within the agricultural sector, as most of the arable land lies in coastal areas, sea level rise and saltwater intrusion pose severe risks to food production as well as a reduction in crop efficiency.6 These sustenance industries in fishing and agriculture are also highly susceptible to other climate impacts such as rainfall variability,20 worsening marine heat waves,21 etc, increasing the risk of death and displacement due to short and long term climate impacts.  As many local residents rely on these industries for survival, the vulnerability of these populations are further exacerbated by the prevalence of low salaries further preventing individual climate adaptation capabilities.22

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Vanuatu’s global emissions account for approximately 0.004-0.005% of the global share.23 In its commitments, Vanuatu stands out with a maritime jurisdiction making up 98% of the country’s composition and forests covering 70% of the islands’ terrestrial area. This gives Vanuatu a carbon-negative title as a significant carbon sink for the global community. Vanuatu has further committed under the the National Energy Road Map (NERM) and Second National Communication (SNC) to convert 100% of its electricity grid to renewable energy by 2030. This is further associated with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector by 72Gg by 2030 conditional on international support. In terms of agriculture, one of Vanuatu's highest priorities, it has pledged to integrate climate variability, climate change, and disaster risk reduction into all agriculture initiatives and developments, conditional on securing adequate funding resources. With over 60% of households utilizing fisheries as a source of food and income, productivity of this industry is expected to decrease by 20-50% in Vanuatu by 2100.24 Vanuatu has also committed to 40 coastal management plans implemented by 2030. In terms of migration adaptation strategies, Vanuatu has also implemented a Climate Change and Disaster-Induced Displacement National Policy in 2018 that provides a short term and long term national standard for coordinated planning and response to climate disasters.25 In Vanuatu’s most recent simultaneous cyclones in 2023, with an emphasis on $28,000,000 USD of external support, Vanuatu had taken further initiative for an early action plan for short-term and long-term recovery needs.26

Necessary Changes

Vanuatu has taken significant initiative to mitigate its emissions within its electrical grid, create resilience strategies for sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, and implement national, standardized measures for disaster planning and recovery. Now, international support is crucial. Currently, Vanuatu’s general government gross debt equates to 48.4% of its GDP%.27 In the case of a “worse case scenario” of increased severity and frequency of climate disasters, public debt could reach 75.3% of GDP by 2030. In a cash-strapped nation relying on subsistence industries for survival, significantly low purchasing power of households, and a government in significant debt, loan forgiveness as well as international monetary support becomes imperative to Vanuatu’s ability to sustainably adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis. This becomes more urgent as it is expected that Vanuatu’s capacity to meet its NDC commitments relies on over $1,214,350,000 USD of support for items such as loss and damage needs, mitigation strategies, and adaptive measures.23 The country has called on the historic responsibility of Global North countries to meet such needs, and recently helped secure a United Nations vote for an advisory opinion to establish legal, non-binding responsibilities and consequences of countries to address the climate crisis.28

At the national level, a diversified, local economy is important in supporting a sustainable, just transition of Vanuatu’s economy. This includes a democratic economic transition that bolsters participation of the individual voices of its laborers and low-income households relying on local resources for survival, and maintains the country’s capacity for key industries like ecotourism while retaining local control over such industries. Through an equitable and sustainable transition, Vanuatu’s efforts to develop adaptive measures, mitigate risk of natural disasters, and electrify its energy grid can become fairly implemented.