Introduction to Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan, a land-locked in Central Asia, has a population of 34.9 million people1 , of which 50% is rural.2 Its climate zones vary by geography, between cold desert and cold semi-arid climates, with some hot summer Mediterranean climate in the southeastern region.3 The country is at high risk of drought, heat waves, and floods.4 Uzbekistan’s economy is characterized by a mix of sectors, including agriculture, mining, textile, and tourism, with agriculture playing a significant role employing 24% of the working population5 and contributing 25% to the national GDP.6 Ranked as the world’s sixth largest producer of cotton, Uzbekistan addressed and finally ended the long-standing problem of systemic forced labor and child labor within the industry in 2022.7 In addition to cotton production, Uzbekistan’s economy is shaped by the mining of gold and extraction of natural gas. The second largest producer of natural gas in Central Asia after Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan’s oil and gas sector contributes 5.8% to the GDP and over 6% of the state budget revenue, while the mining industry contributes over 60% of the country’s GDP.8 Once the fourth largest sea in the world, the Aral sea in the north of Uzbekistan largely dried up as a result of a Soviet-era, environmentally destructive intervention in the 1960s geared towards diverting water for the cotton industry. A legacy of its status as a former Soviet territory, Uzbekistan's heavy dependence on climate-sensitive, environmentally degrading, and extractive industries continue to exacerbate the country's vulnerability to the climate crisis.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Uzbekistan is vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 130 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.9 Uzbekistan not only faces significant risks of flood and heat waves but also ranks among the top 20 countries globally in terms of its vulnerability to drought.10 Due to Uzbekistan's arid climate and consistently high temperatures, drought has become an increasingly frequent phenomenon in the region. On average, during the 1980s and 1990s, Uzbekistan encountered a drought every five years, and between 2000 and 2012, the country experienced four separate drought episodes.11 The decrease in river runoff, particularly from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers which once fed the Aral sea, could lead to an increased occurrence of droughts moving forward.12 In 2018, Uzbekistan recorded a total of 79,942 internally displaced people, and this number is projected to increase to 200,000 individuals as the drying up of the Aral Sea continues to generate new climate refugees.13 The vast majority of Uzbekistan faces the threat of both river flooding and flash flooding, but the southern and eastern regions are particularly vulnerable to the latter. Between 1900 and 2013, 3300 flash floods have affected the country.14 The flood situation has been worsening in recent years in Uzbekistan with 119 floods recorded in 2020, 134 recorded in 2021, and 141 recorded between only January and May of 2022.15

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Uzbekistan is US$ 69.24 billion,16 with more than 17% of the population living below the national poverty line.17 The severe drought of 2000 and 2001 had significant economic and social consequences in Uzbekistan. Crop yields declined by 14% to 17% for cereals and 45% to 75% for other crops, resulting in estimated losses of agricultural GDP ranging from $38 million to $130 million. The drought also had adverse health effects, including increased instances of water-related illnesses and malnutrition among children in western regions. Low-income individuals, who depend on subsistence agriculture in arid regions, are especially susceptible to the impacts of extreme weather events and long-lasting droughts exacerbated by climate change. In addition to drought, flood is also a significant threat for Uzbekistan. Following heavy rainfall in April 2022, Uzbekistan once again faced the devastating impact of deadly floods and mudflows, the worst seen in 80 years. The calamitous events resulted in several casualties, led to displacement, and inflicted extensive damage across the affected areas. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Uzbekistan, constituting 0.44 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.37  percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.18 Uzbekistan pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 35 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario.19 In its updated Nationally Determined Contribution, Uzbekistan has identified multiple sectors for advancing climate resilience and adaptation, including water, agriculture, biodiversity, and forestry. In its 2019-2028 National Strategy on Biodiversity Conservation, the country adopted policies to promote the effective and sustainable management of natural resources. Recently, Afghan and Uzbek communities joined forces in a reforestation endeavor initiated by UNDP and UNHCR, and geared towards supporting Uzbekistan in fulfilling its obligations under the Paris Agreement.20 Additionally, for a country heavily dependent on the mining sector, the government now is acknowledging the significance of responsible resource management in achieving long-term environmental sustainability and fostering socio-economic development. In 2022, Uzbekistan adopted the Strategy for Transition to a Green Economy by 2030, which is a comprehensive strategy aimed at tackling present environmental and economic obstacles while fostering a path towards sustainable, resilient, and equitable development.21

Necessary Changes

Uzbekistan is actively promoting the development of a green economy, undertaking significant climate mitigation initiatives to reduce its carbon footprint, and advancing adaptation efforts to build its climate resilience. However, far more needs to be done and it is critical for the global community to support Uzbekistan in a just transition that is inclusive of its underserved, low-income, and at-risk communities. The country continues to heavily rely on the oil and gas sector, and despite its significant potential for solar energy, the country has yet to effectively develop its clean energy sector. It is an imperative for Uzbekistan to divest from its extractive and carbon-intensive fossil fuel industry, while expediting the adoption of renewables. At the same time, the government needs to ensure that workers in the fossil fuel industry are not left behind. By offering retraining programs, facilitating job transitions, and providing social safety nets, Uzbekistan can mitigate any potential negative impacts on affected workers and communities. Furthermore, it is crucial for the international community to provide support in facilitating a shift away from Uzbekistan’s extractivist model of development. Uzbekistan needs to transition towards a sustainable, regenerative, and inclusive economy by diversifying the country's economic activities and promoting sectors that prioritize environmental stewardship, social inclusion, and long-term viability.