Introduction to United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a federation of seven emirates, located along the eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, bordering Oman and Saudi Arabia.1 The vast majority of its population of 9.44 million2 reside in urban regions (88%3 ), with more than one-third of the total population located in Dubai alone.4  Inequity is a pertinent issue in the UAE, with a significant gap between wealthy citizens and lower-income expatriate workers, wherein 2022, the top 10% of Emiratis held approximately 76.4% of the nation’s total wealth, while the bottom 50% of Emiratis held only 0.3%.5 The emirates experiences a desert climate, characterized by hot summers and mild winters, with climate patterns significantly impacted by its proximity to the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Geographically, it consists of vast deserts, coastal plains, mountain ranges and scattered oases.6 The discovery of oil in the 1960s transformed the UAE's economic and demographic landscape, demanding a large, low-wage expatriate workforce upon which the nation depends–as of July 2020,  87.9% of the total population are international migrants (largely from India, Bangladesh, Nepal ,and Pakistan), the highest proportion of migrants relative to its population in the world, and a population that is not afforded adequate worker rights and protections.7  The UAE is considered a high-income country, with its economy largely reliant on the oil and gas industry, accounting for approximately 15%8 of its GDP of $507 billion.9  The country's history of rapid fossil fuel-driven modernization and urbanization at once exacerbates the climate crisis and contextualizes the intensified climate impacts it faces, particularly increased vulnerability to coastal flooding, water scarcity, and extreme heat.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

While regionally susceptible to the impacts of climate change, the United Arab Emirates ranks relatively well in its overall vulnerability (32 of 185 nations) and readiness (ranked 30 of 191 nations) by the ND-GAIN Country Index.10  Despite this, the UAE faces several climate-related risks, including water scarcity, insufficient natural freshwater resources, land degradation, sandstorms, flash floods from heavy rains, and desertification. Rising sea levels in the coming decades are predicted to create significant coastal depreciation, submerging large portions of Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Over the past decades, the UAE has experienced a notable increase in extreme heat waves, with average annual temperatures increasing by a staggering 1.18° C in just over a century.11  Across the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region heat-related deaths are estimated to be 60 times higher by the end of the century, with rates already more than any other region in the world.12 Parallel to extreme heat in the region is the excessive rainfall and flooding that follows. 85% of the population in the United Arab Emirates live in low-lying, flood-prone regions13 that are especially vulnerable to extreme flooding, and such regions uniquely endangered by rising precipitation rates are expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%.14  In 2017, disaster-induced displacements affected 850 individuals, and in 2019, there were 220 more displacements, with 20 people still displaced by the end of the year.7  In April 2024, heavy rains displaced many people and killed 25 people across the UAE and Oman with unprecedented conditions that exceeded previous records of daily rainfall from the last 75 years, when records began.15 The population most vulnerable to climate harm in the United Arab Emirates are migrant workers, despite the fact that they are indispensable in advancing the UAE’s adaptation efforts to the country’s increasing extreme heat as the backbone of the country’s infrastructure, agriculture, and security sectors.16   

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The UAE is projected to incur a total GDP loss of $27 billion between 2022 and 2050 as a result of extreme droughts, floods, and storm conditions. The agricultural sector, in particular, faces significant threats, with an anticipated annual output decline of 0.5% due to water-related risks.17 The extreme flooding in April 2024 caused $544 million USD of damage to housing infrastructure alone, with an overall cost estimated at nearly $1 billion USD.18  Future costs to coastal regions and expatriate labor populations are also likely to be significant. In 2012, a sea level rise risk assessment study for Abu Dhabi estimated the urban area loss for various scenarios. A rise of half a meter would submerge 1.46% of the city, increasing to 9.45% with a 1.5-meter rise and 15.89% with a 2-meter rise. While the exact costs have not been determined, the potential damage could amount to billions of US dollars, given Abu Dhabi's significant economic role, contributing to two-thirds of the UAE's $400 billion economy.19  Water scarcity in the region also poses high economic costs, with recent desalination developments already costing the Emirati government over $2 billion USD in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Umm Al Qaiwain.

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways 

In November 2023, the UAE hosted 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Conference of the Parties (COP28 UAE), where the UAE Consensus, a historic agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, was produced.20 In July 2023, the UAE revised its third nationally determined contribution (NDC), setting a new goal to reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent by 2030, an increase from the previous target of 31 percent.21 Further, the UAE intends to mitigate current challenges by investing heavily in renewable energy projects, such as the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, which aims to generate 5,000 MW by 2030. Alongside neighboring Gulf countries, the UAE has channeled significant political and economic resources towards water scarcity mitigation and desalination. Water stress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—is primarily rooted in limited supply,  and is an issue that has been intensified by rapid population growth, which has nearly doubled over the past 20 years due to mass labor demands. With this scarcity in mind, the UAE invests heavily in desalination, a process that provides 42% of drinking water across the country.22 To address the aridity in the region, the UAE has also used a sophisticated cloud-seeding system since the 1990s, employing 1,000 hours of seeding missions per year. However, some have attributed unique flooding events to interceding impacts of the climate crisis and cloud seeding.23 The UAE has also led the region in the development of infrastructure to predict extreme weather by investing in early warning systems. The system has effectively predicted extreme weather events 24 hours in advance, including essential information regarding sea level rise, changes in wave height, and direction, increased precipitation rates, coastal erosion, and heightened seawater acidity.24

Necessary Changes 

The United Arab Emirates already has a robust framework for resilience and mitigation pathways, and there is significant political will to address climate challenges on the horizon. However, it is necessary for the country to enhance its attention to the disparate impacts of the climate crisis on its migrant population and the need for long-lasting solutions to water and infrastructure needs. For example, while the UAE and its neighbors lead the world in desalination efforts, brine discharge from desalination plants is altering the Gulf's ecology, making it one of the most anthropogenically impacted regions globally, with approximately 55 percent of the world's brine produced by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar.25 In addition to these ecological concerns, the UAE must address intersecting climate and labor rights concerns. The COP28 meeting sites themselves were associated with significant abuses against migrant workers. Rights organizations have documented that Expo City Dubai, the venue for the majority of events, was constructed under conditions involving illegal recruitment fees, nonpayment of wages, passport retention, and discrimination. Additionally, employers at COP28 sites have violated the government’s summer midday work ban, which prohibits outdoor work between 12:30 p.m. and 3:00 p.m. from mid-June to mid-September, by forcing workers to labor in extreme heat.26 Addressing occurrences such as this must begin with creating comprehensive pathways of justice for low-income expatriate workers, including improved living and working conditions and access to resources for climate adaptation. As an initial measure, the UAE should adopt and enforce the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index27 as the standard for imposing work limitations during periods of extreme heat. Mandating occupational heat safety and health measures28 to protect workers and abolish the abusive kafala system, which grants disproportionate power to employers, are also essential measures needed to address the labor and climate failings of the region. Internationally-backed demands for workers’ rights and protection must be heeded, and mitigation efforts should support ongoing work on the ground29 to ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of this needed transition.