Introduction to Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan, located in the southwest of central Asia, has a population of 6.3 million people,1 of which 47% is rural.2 Tunisia’s climate zones vary between cold desert climate and cold semi-arid climate,3 with 80% of the country's land area covered by the Karakum desert. In recent decades, the country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves, floods, and drought. With the world's fourth largest reserve of natural gas, accounting for approximately 10% of the reserves worldwide, hydrocarbons making up 90% of the export revenue,4 and natural gas production increasing by 7.2% in 2021, Turkmenistan’s economy is characterized by a heavy dependence on the fossil fuels industry.5 Agriculture is another important sector, contributing 10.8% to the country’s GDP6 and employing 22% of the working population,7 and is at high-risk due to an increase in drought frequency and uncertainty in rainfall patterns. Given its high reliance on climate- sensitive sectors, the country is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the carbon-intensive and extractive economy of Turkmenistan emits significant greenhouse gasses, exacerbating the climate crisis.   

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Turkmenistan is vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranking 132 out of 180 countries in the Notre Dame Global Index which considers a nation's susceptibility to climate change and other global issues, along with its preparedness to enhance resilience.8  In 1993, Turkmenistan faced one of the most severe incidents of flooding since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, resulting in devastating damages amounting to approximately $200 million.9 The flood left a trail of destruction, affecting critical infrastructure, agricultural lands, residential areas, and the overall economy of the country. More recently, the 2021 drought in Turkmenistan’s southern and southeastern regions was the worst extreme event that occurred in the country in the past decade.10 The adverse effects of climate change, particularly on agricultural output and water resources, is driving migration in Turkmenistan. The situation is expected to worsen as the escalating temperatures and accelerated glacier melting in neighboring regions pose a significant threat to Amu Darya river, potentially causing severe water shortages by the 2040s and 2050s.11 The International Organization for Migration (IOM) initiated a project in 2022 to integrate migration in relation to climate change in the national level planning processes of Turkmenistan.12  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Turkmenistan is US$ 45.2 billion,13 and the country is classified as an upper-middle-income country. Turkmenistan's excessive reliance on the fossil fuel industry rendered it exceptionally susceptible to fluctuations in global energy prices, and led to the worst economic crisis in the country in three decades.14 Vulnerable to climate hazards and primarily due to drought, the region faces significant economic losses, which amounted to approximately US$ 800 million in losses during 2000 and 2001.15 While the average atmospheric temperature increased by 0.8 degree Celsius globally over the past 55 years, the temperature rise for Turkmenistan stands at 1.4 degree Celsius.16 After severe rainfall during the months of April to August, mudflows frequently happen in mountainous regions of the country, including the Kopetdag, Koytendag, and Balhan ranges.17 There is a limited availability of data, but recent mudflow incidents indicate the potential for significant loss of life and extensive damage to infrastructure in these mountainous areas. Turkmenistan finds itself caught in a complex situation concerning climate change, as it not only suffers from its adverse consequences but also contributes to exacerbating the crisis. In 2022, the country was responsible for the largest number of methane leaks from fossil fuel facilities, followed by the US and Russia.18

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Turkmenistan, constituting 0.08 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.14 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.19 Turkmenistan pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 20% of its greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario.20 Acknowledging methane’s significant contribution to global heating and the country’s methane emission contribution, Turkmenistan joined the Global Methane Pledge in order to reduce global methane emissions by 30% by the year 2030.21 In its Nationally Determined Contribution, Turkmenistan is aiming to reduce emissions in its oil and gas industry through improved monitoring methods, regular repair and replacement of equipment, and modernization of flaring facilities.22 In terms of adaptation efforts, the priority sectors identified include agriculture, water and health care.23 The government plans to improve the efficiency of irrigation systems, advance water resource management, and update legal regulation for protection and use of water resources. Turkmenistan has demonstrated exceptional leadership, and reduced climate impacts on stateless people amongst other vulnerabilities, by issuing a presidential decree on granting citizenship to refugees in its territories.

Necessary Changes

Turkmenistan is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. International cooperation and support are now essential for enhancing Turkmenistan's adaptive capacity and resilience to the climate crisis. Addressing the country’s vulnerabilities requires a comprehensive approach, including improved water management strategies, sustainable agriculture practices, infrastructure resilience, and diversification of the economy to reduce dependence on climate-sensitive sectors. However, by recognizing the need for a paradigm shift and redirecting efforts towards fostering a sustainable, regenerative, and inclusive economy, Turkmenistan can overcome these challenges. The country’s involvement in the Global Methane Pledge demonstrates a willingness to address the issue and work towards mitigating methane emissions. However, it is evident that more substantial efforts are needed to effectively combat climate change. Through international support and collaboration, Turkmenistan can strengthen its efforts in curbing methane emissions by sharing best practices and leveraging technological advancements. Furthermore, international cooperation is vital for facilitating the transfer of knowledge, expertise, and financial resources to support the implementation of cleaner and more sustainable technologies in Turkmenistan's energy and industrial sectors.