Introduction to Tunisia 

Tunisia, located in the Mediterranean coast of Western Africa, has a population of 12.3 million people,1 of which 30% is rural.2 Tunisia’s climate zones vary by geography, with hot desert climate in the South, and hot summer and semi-arid Mediterranean climate in the North.3 The country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly floods, droughts and wildfires. Tunisia’s economy is characterized by a mix of sectors, including agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and tourism, with agriculture playing a significant role contributing 10.1% to the country’s GDP4 and employing 14% of the working population.5 Tourism is an important part of Tunisia's economy, contributing 14% to the country's GDP and providing around 400,000 direct and indirect jobs.6 Tunisia plays a critical role globally for producing phosphate-based fertilizers, with the phosphate industry contributing 4 percent of the GDP and 15% of the country’s total exports. Legacies of Tunisia's colonial-era economy, dominated by export-oriented agriculture and extractive industries, continue to reproduce patterns of dispossession and environmental degradation, and exacerbate the nation's vulnerability to the climate crisis.7  

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Tunisia is vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 97 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.8 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are flood, drought and wildfire, which account for over 92% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.9 The adverse impacts of these climate events on the livelihoods of Tunisia’s rural and underdeveloped communities, mostly in the south and central regions, is driving migration towards the cities. Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 3 years of flood with the number increasing to 5 between 2001 and 2020. In 2018 alone, 30,000 Tunisians were affected by flood, while in 2020, the number stood at 40,000.10 Between 2008 and 2022, 14 disaster events were reported in Tunisia, amongst which floods displaced 15,000 people and wildfire displaced over 2,000 people.11 After four consecutive years of scarce rain, the country’s worst drought on record hit Tunisia in early 2023 forcing the government to cut water supplies to its citizens.12 These restrictions, along with bans on use of portable water for irrigating farmland, threaten to fuel social tensions and climate-induced displacement in a country grappling with inadequate public services, high inflation rates, and a fragile economy.  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Tunisia is US$46.69 billion,13 with more than 16 percent of its population living below the national poverty line,14 and 16.1 percent of the labor force unemployed. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to the coastal region, which accounts for 80 percent of the country's economic activity and is inhabited by two thirds of its population.15 Between 1900 and 2020, floods resulted in damage of more than US$ 278 million in Tunisia.16 Without adaptation measures and under a high emissions scenario, sea level rise and flooding would  impact 78,700 Tunisians annually between 2070 and 2100.17 Increase in the severity, frequency, and duration of floods and droughts in coastal, desert, and urban regions of Tunisia are likely to lead to crop failures and food insecurity. Tunisia's economy is anticipated to experience a decline in output amounting to $2 billion to $2.7 billion from 2000 to 2030, as a result of the combined impact of escalating global food prices and diminishing crop yields.18 The less developed southern and central regions, with poverty rates reaching up to four times the levels observed in the affluent coastal region, face heightened vulnerability to climate impacts due to inadequate infrastructure, institutional capacity, and financial resources. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Tunisia, constituting 0.16 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.05 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.19 Tunisia pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 27% of its greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and 45% with substantial international support.20 Tunisia is concentrating on enhancing governance, strengthening the transparency framework, and promoting capacity building and technology transfer to advance comprehensive mitigation and adaptation initiatives. Identified areas for adaptation and resilience efforts include water resource management, agricultural production, natural ecosystems, coastal zones, health, and tourism. Tunisia is actively advancing climate-resilient agriculture and enhancing the incomes of smallholder farmers through various approaches. These include prioritizing nature-based solutions, integrating climate change considerations into pastoral management plans, and undertaking efforts to restore the natural regeneration capacity of degraded ecosystems.21

Necessary Changes

Tunisia is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. It is now critical for the global community to support Tunisia in a just transition that is inclusive of its underserved, low-income, and at-risk communities. With high dependence on imported gas and 97% of Tunisia’s electricity generated from fossil fuel,22 there is a critical need for Tunisia to expedite the adoption of renewable energy sources and reduce its dependence on natural gas.  Central and southern Tunisia's extreme vulnerability to drought needs to be tackled by increasing international financing support for the region’s adaptation initiatives, including climate-smart agriculture, nature-based solutions, and holistic management plans. Furthermore, while the coastal regions have witnessed higher levels of employment opportunities in the industry and service sector, the inland and southern regions remain largely dependent on agriculture. Therefore, efforts focused on livelihood reconstruction and sectoral diversification should be advanced to bolster the resilience of vulnerable agrarian communities in the largely agrarian economies of Tunisia’s central and southern regions. Finally, it is imperative for the Tunisian government to shift its focus from extractive and environmentally destructive sectors, such as mining, and instead redirect its efforts towards fostering a sustainable, regenerative, and inclusive economy.