Introduction to Tonga

Tonga is an archipelago in the South Pacific Ocean, with a population of approximately 107,000,1 75% of which live in rural regions.2 As the only monarchy in the Pacific, Tonga is one of few Pacific nations that retains its formal Indigenous governance.3 Tonga has a tropical climate, characterized by frequent cyclones and heavy rainfall, and significant variations from year to year due to the El Niño- Southern Oscillation. Geographically, Tonga consists of approximately 170 islands, of which 36 are inhabited. The islands are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its low-lying islands. The economy of Tonga is largely driven by agriculture, fisheries, and remittances, with tourism also playing a significant role. The agricultural sector is the islands’ economic base, contributing approximately 16% of the islands’ GDP of $500 million USD4 and employing 25% of the island’s population.5 The country's dependence on these sectors highlights its vulnerability to climate impacts, which are further exacerbated by its geographic structure, low-lying communities, limited resources and isolation, with its seclusion paradoxically making the islands at once vulnerable but also resilient against the impacts of the climate crisis.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Tonga, similar to many small island states in the region, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme climate events due to its location and susceptibility to extreme climate events. Tonga is ranked as the third most vulnerable country to the effects of climate change, with particular risk attributed to high-impact disasters. The coastal regions and low-lying islands are particularly susceptible, with nearly 80% of the population living along coastlines.6  Over the past decades, Tonga has experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, including cyclones, floods, and storm surges. Between 2008 and 2015, the islands reported 5,700 internal displacements, a figure that more than doubled between 2016 and 2023 to 11,400 reported displacements.7  Cyclone Gita in 2018 caused widespread devastation to homes, infrastructure, and agriculture, damaging 4,000 homes and destroying over 800, displacing over 4,500 people and leaving more than 80% of homes in Tonga without power.8  In Tonga, the frequency of such events and limited recovery resources compound to create a unique crisis, with historical data indicating that there have been at least 85 tropical cyclones developing within or crossing the Tonga region between the 1969/70 and 2010/11 seasons, for an average of 20 cyclones per decade.9  These events are likely to persist, with temperatures across the Pacific  projected to increase between 1.4°C and 3.1°C by 2080, with localized temperature increases expected across Tonga particularly after 2030,9 and sea levels rising 6 mm per year since 1993, significantly more than the global average of 2.8–3.6 mm per year.10  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The economic costs of climate disasters in Tonga are substantial, with event-specific costs running into millions of dollars, particularly due to damage to housing structures, agriculture, and fisheries. Prior to Cyclone Gita, an estimated 15% of the population in the capital city of Nuku'alofa lived in poverty, and in 2016, half of the residents on the island group of ’Eua were unable to afford a basic basket of  essential goods. Economic losses due to the cyclone amounted to approximately $164 million, or nearly 38% of Tonga's GDP. The housing sector suffered significantly, with 5% of the population on Tongatapu displaced and 56% of the housing structures on ’Eua either destroyed or damaged.11 In April 2020, Cyclone Harold caused over $111million USD in damages, further debasing the islands already made vulnerable by the COVID-19 pandemic.12  Largely attributed to its economic base and vulnerability to extreme climate events, Tonga incurs damage costs equivalent to 14 percent of its GDP during a typical disaster year.13 According to the Asian Development Bank, economic losses attributed to climate change could range from 2.9% (reduced emissions scenario) to as high as 12.7% (business-as-usual) of annual GDP across the Pacific region by 2100.14

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

The Tongan government has established several commitments as part of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). Namely, Tonga aims for 13% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2006 through a transition to 70% renewable electricity, the establishment of a forest inventory, and a formal waste collection system as prerequisites to identify a GHG emission target for the 2025 NDC. In regards to adaptation, the government has committed to the preservation of 30% of land in Tonga to be utilized for agro-forestry or forestry by 2025 and to maintain the existing stocks of fish and other marine species through a commitment to expand the area covered by Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Special Management Areas (SMAs) to 30% of the Tonga’sExclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).15 Some of Tonga’s additional adaptation initiatives include: public awareness programs, coastal revegetation, coastal protection, and the expansion of water collection systems.16  The most robust initiatives are community-based, differing from recommendations by the IMF and similar financial entities to take a top-down approach that emphasizes human capital development and continued reliance on loans. These recommendations often lacks essential elements of climate change communication and education, and for Tongans, effective climate action has taken root in local communities.17

Necessary Changes

The populace and government of Tonga recognize the unique vulnerabilities the islands face and display the urgency needed to address them. However, it is necessary for the country and the international community to pivot towards more effective implementation and funding of planned projects.  Tonga’s ability to navigate the climate crisis is well-entangled with its debt status. Over the past 20 years, Tonga's national debt has been largely driven by post-disaster borrowing, placing the country at high risk of debt distress, with sovereign debt presenting 31% of the islands’ GDP and 86% of its total public debt in 2023.18 Finding ways to balance costly climate disasters and the predatory nature of this debt –which limits its ability to address the climate crisis effectively–will be essential in building long-lasting resilience in Tonga. Further, it is important to critically examine the role of the United States throughout the Pacific. In 2022, while the United States benefited from a trade surplus with Tonga of over $17 million, Tongans navigate a poverty rate of nearly 22%.19  Accompanying US economic and political influence–including the establishment of the US embassy in Tonga in 202320 –are environmental hazards due to military operations, past and present, including dumping radioactive waste, nerve agents, and chemical weapons like Agent Orange in Pacific waters.21 It is crucial for both Tonga and the international community to adopt a more inclusive and transparent approach to climate action, one that not only ensures effective implementation and funding but also empowers local communities and addresses the historical and ongoing impacts of international actors in the region.22