Introduction to Timor-Leste

Located in the Southeast region of Asia, Timor-Leste occupies the eastern half of the Timor island as well as a small enclave in west Timor known as Oecussi. Timor-Leste has a population of 1.3 million1 and is 68% rural.2 It is estimated that 42% of the population, as of 2014, lives below the national poverty line and 30.9% of the population is undernourished.3 Timor-Leste has a tropical climate and is influenced heavily by the West Pacific Monsoon climate and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).4 As of 2017, Timor-Leste’s GDP is dominated by   agriculture (10.4%), industry (45.8%), and  services (44.1%).5 Its main exports are oil, coffee, sandalwood, marble, comprising 61.1% of its GDP. In terms of oil, this accounted for 90% of revenues in 2017, dropping to 70% of revenues in 2018 and accounting for 36% of GDP.6 However, the revenues from oil specifically put into the state’s Petroleum Fund is expected to run dry by either the late-2020s or mid-2030s, creating a future potential budgetary disaster for Timor-Leste.7 Currently, the coffee industry accounts for 85% to 90% of Timor-Leste’s non-oil exports.8 Moreover, Timor-Leste imports 60% of its food9 and over 70% of the population relies on subsistence agriculture for survival.10 Having just gained formal independence in 2002 from Indonesia, Timor-Leste has experienced postcolonial effects, fragility as a country due to its economic and political transition, and instability due to a history of political conflict.7 Due to its reliance on a declining oil industry, a limited and developing economy, the prevalence of subsistence agriculture, elevated poverty levels, the aftermath of colonial independence, and a precarious political state, Timor-Leste finds itself susceptible to the effects of climate-related impacts.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Timor-Leste ranks 81 out of 191 countries in terms of overall climate vulnerability, and ranks 49 out of 191 in lack of coping capacity.11 Currently, Timor-Leste is ranked 43rd in risk for tropical cyclones3 and its exposure to natural disasters is only increasing in intensity and impact. For example, from 2008 to 2022, a total of 105 reported disasters occurred with storms making up a majority of the types of disasters. More specifically, between 2001 to 2011, 20,000 individuals were estimated to have been affected by natural disasters and 10,000 houses damaged in the process.12 The disasters occurring between 2008 and 2014 in particular resulted in 3,600 internal displacements, followed by an additional 17,000 internal displacements between 2015 and 2022.13 In 2021, significant flash floods and the impact of tropical cyclone Seroja resulted in 30,322 households being affected, with 82% of those households located in the Dili municipality. Additionally, 4,212 houses were damaged nationwide.14 Specifically, the direct consequences of tropical cyclone Seroja included the displacement of 9,779 individuals and the loss of 42 lives in the capital city, Dili.15 Due to Timor-Leste’s history of political conflict and widespread violence during its movement towards formal independence from Indonesia, it is estimated Indonesian military and pro-Indonesian militias destroyed 70% of the country's infrastructure, or buildings, and displaced 450,000 individuals during their departure from the country.16

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Currently, Timor-Leste holds a GDP of $3.2 billion USD.17 The country has been exposed to significant loss due to climate change. For example, in 2020, flooding, along with other factors, was further correlated with an economic loss of 1.3% of GDP.18 Currently, assuming protection for a 1 in 25-year event, the population affected specifically just by flooding is expected to reach 259 individuals yearly with damage costs of around $1.4 million USD. This number is expected to increase to 370 individuals annually affected by floods with $3.9 million USD annual costs expected by 2030 under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway.3 Moreover, Timor-Leste’s agricultural sector has experienced significant economic losses to climate change. Extreme flooding in 2021 led to destruction of 90 sucos (“villages”) where infrastructure was located and damaging of 2,660 ha of rice, 12% of all planted areas, and risking continued losses of 60% of rice yields worth 1.5 million USD annually.19 Along with Tropical Cyclone Seroja in April 2021, total damage to infrastructure was estimated at $100 million USD.20 Looking forward, Timor-Leste could have a decrease in maize crop production by 6% by 2050 and 14% by 2070 due to climate change. One potential stressor is sea level rise, projected to increase by 0.572 meters in 2050 and result in the inundation of 0.4 km² of land in Timor-Leste under the high emissions scenario. By 2100, the sea level rise is anticipated to further increase to 1.287 meters, leading to an expansion of the total inundated land to 1.2 km². In another sector, tourism, under the A1 scenario, Timor-Leste could see a decrease by 30-35% in its tourism revenue by 2100 as a result of climate change. Additionally, the fisheries sector, which provides 7.7 kg/year in 2017 in fish consumption per person, is likely to see a regional decrease of total catch by 7.5% by 2100 under a high emissions scenario.21 Overall, by 2100, Timor-Leste could see a decrease in GDP by 10% by 2100.22

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

While Timor-Leste accounts only for 0.01% of total GHG emissions, it has made significant commitments to reduce its emissions burden. While refraining from a specific quantifiable emissions target, it has enacted a National Climate Change Policy in 2021 coordinating a national approach to climate change adaptation and mitigation. It has also committed to passing a new climate change law by 2023-2024 to provide the legal framework for next steps in Timor-Leste’s climate strategy. The country also intends to develop a National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan allowing for the implementation of its National Climate Change Policy, leveraging financial support from a GCF Readiness grant. Moreover, the country has committed to expediting new and existing land tenure reform projects over the period of 2021-2025 that will create a more favorable environment for implementing nature-based solutions. The Growing Tourism to 2030- Enhancing a National Identity tourism policy, passed in 2017, is currently working to enhance ecotourism and sustainable growth of its tourism sector. In terms of climate displacement, Timor-Leste has additionally allocated resources to integrated water resource management and flood protection. Utilizing its Green Climate Fund, it is working on implementing a $59.4m USD project, aimed to benefit 522,000 people, by enhancing small-scale rural infrastructure to decrease vulnerability to climate-induced disasters. Within this same Green Climate Fund, and with the support of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Timor-Leste is also working on improving its early warning systems to improve climate information and disaster preparedness.23

Necessary Changes

Timor-Leste has taken steps to provide legal infrastructure to its climate commitments, improving land-tenure reform projects, enhancing its ecotourism sector, and improving upon disaster preparedness in especially vulnerable communities. Yet, being an extremely young, independent economy, its government as well as people remain highly cash-strapped and therefore require further monetary support from the international community and an alleviation of economic pressures placing burdens on historically exploitative sectors including oil production. At the national level, Timor-Leste faces the imperative to diminish its reliance on oil exports, especially considering its potential for a future budgetary disaster in terms of its Petroleum Fund. At the same time, it must enhance the diversification of its economic activities. This also requires decreasing its dependence on food imports by building up sustainable agricultural infrastructure for increased domestic consumption and self-sufficiency. This is even more necessary as it is estimated that although the agricultural sector only makes up 2% of the annual budget, 70% of the population utilizes agricultural activity for subsistence.24 Considering over half the population is below the age of 20,25 it also remains imperative that Timor-Leste further adopts a democratic economy that prioritizes the active involvement of its youth, frontline workers, and other vulnerable populations. All together, with the support of the international community and intentional national effort, a just transition becomes more attainable.