Introduction to Thailand

Thailand, a tropical, medium-sized state in Southeast Asia, has a population of over 71 million people,1 of which 46% is rural.2 Situated just 15° north of the equator, Thailand experiences humidity year-round, with the southern tip having a tropical rainforest climate while the northern part has a tropical monsoon climate.3 Thailand is no stranger to extreme weather events, especially in the northeastern and southern regions, which face significant vulnerability to floods, storms, tsunamis, droughts, landslides, and forest fires.4 The country has also experienced remarkable economic success recently, boasting the second-largest economy amongst all ASEAN nations.5 The service and industry sectors contribute to 56% and 35% of the Thai GDP, respectively, followed by agriculture at 9%.6 Although agriculture accounts for a relatively small proportion of Thailand’s GDP, over 47% of Thailand’s geographical area is categorized as agricultural,7 and the sector employs over one-third of the Thai labor force, composed mainly of poorer rural communities.8 Following decades of permanent military rule in the 20th century, politically, Thailand now operates as a constitutional monarchy with the prime minister as head of government and the monarch—with significant influence over politics and the military—as head of state.9

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Thailand is highly vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis, ranking 9th on the long-term climate risk index10 for human impact and economic losses. Since 1980, Thailand has faced 78 floods and 39 storms11 and currently ranks as one of the ten most flood-affected countries globally.12 Over 4.4 million people are projected to be affected by flooding by 2100.13 This largely stems from Thailand’s extensive coastline, heavily populated urban areas on flood-prone plains, rising seas, and sinking lands, all of which make the country extremely vulnerable to flooding.14 With half of Thailand’s agricultural land being used for rice cultivation, the climate crisis threatens rice crop failure, which can severely impact international trade and nutrition for the Thai people. Tourism—an industry that makes up over 20% of GDP15 —also faces exposure, as cultural and natural tourism areas like Bangkok and Phuket may see declining visitors with concerns of flooding and waterborne infectious diseases. The 2011 Thailand flood is a significant yet stark example of the country’s climate vulnerability that will go down in Thai history, with extreme flooding causing 815 deaths and 13.6 million being impacted, internally displacing 165,000, and damaging over 20,000 km² of farmland.16 Although it occurred during monsoon season, the climate crisis exacerbated its impacts, with the Thai people facing record rainfall unseen in 61 years, 84% of Thai provinces being affected in some capacity,17 14% of rice paddy fields being eradicated, and 1.5 million homes being damaged.18 Once the flooding reached Bangkok, thousands fled the city to go elsewhere, while almost 800,000 were trapped in their residences with little access to daily necessities and electricity.19  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Thailand is $514.94 billion,20 and the country has achieved tremendous success in alleviating poverty rates, which has gone from 58% in 1990 to 6.8% in 2020.21 However, this triumph may be short-lived, as Thailand is ranked among the top five countries to have the most significant decline in total GDP with the coming of the climate crisis; where if little adaptation or mitigation is done to check its impact, Thailand can lose up to 45% of its GDP by 2050.22 Further, Thailand's average annual loss associated with flooding alone is almost $2.6 billion.23 For example, the 2011 floods amounted to $45 billion in damages and cost $15 billion in insurance loss.23 The flood also caused ripples in the global economy, as it was estimated to set international industrial production back by almost 2.5% and caused private corporations like Sony to experience a net loss of nearly $2.1 billion.24 If no major advancements in tools and technology nor changes in production methods occur, Thailand can face declines in rice production by 13%, sugarcane by 35%, and cassava by 21%,22 which can, in turn, significantly affect trade and unemployment levels. With changes in precipitation and temperature rates, loss based on farmland value and output is projected to be north of $94 billion by 2050.25 Despite this, when looking at agricultural climate resilience, Thailand has spent less than 1% of agricultural GDP on R&D practices.26

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Despite being responsible for less than 1% of global GHG emissions, Thailand will be one of the most impacted countries by the climate crisis. On a domestic level, under Thailand’s 2nd Updated NDC, they pledged to reduce total GHG emissions by 30% from the projected BAU levels by 2030 and have already implemented this target into the Thai National Strategy plans.27 This roadmap includes mitigation measures in the energy sector, through advancements in renewable electricity and energy efficiency; industrial processes, through substituting raw materials in cement production; the transportation sector, through promoting a shift in transportation methods; and the waste management industry.28 ​​ Through their Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) submitted to the UN, Thailand has also set goals to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero emissions by 2065.29 Starting in 2025, Thailand is implementing a carbon tax that will target source emissions like oil products, as they are trying to encourage the domestic growth of EV vehicles—as seen with a 685% increase in sales in 2024.30 The Thai government has also provided frameworks for adaptation, where they are working to develop a climate-resilient society focused on water resource management, agriculture and food security, tourism, public health, natural resource management, and human settlements and security.31 Thailand has established a National Committee on Climate Change Policy (NCCC) that oversees such policies, development, and implementation.22

Necessary Changes

Among efforts to sustain a healthy population and economy in the face of the climate crisis, Thailand must look to improve in new efficient technologies. This includes the development of new and efficient cost-effective renewable energy technologies to be implemented in several sectors, as over 69.6% of Thailand’s total GHG emissions are derived from the energy sector.32 This includes exploring offshore renewable power generation systems, smart transmissions, and smart electricity grid environments.33 Thailand also has to work on implementing electrification of private and public transportation while promoting waste-to-energy technologies.34 Critically, cited barriers to such efforts include a lack of data, financial operating costs, and technology development.22 Another key barrier to effective climate mitigation and adaptation concerns natural resource governance. For example, Thailand’s water management policies involve several organizations and government agencies under different departments, resulting in a range of challenges with no definitive leadership.35 There also continues to be a negative public perception towards climate action by the government, highlighting the importance of both government accountability and climate change education in school core curriculum and media, such that the public can be more informed and support government action.22 To truly move past these obstacles, Thailand needs international cooperation, financial support, technical expertise, data transmission, technology transfer, capacity building, and better water management.36 Unless several of these issues are fixed, Thailand cannot reach its mitigation goals under the current infrastructure and implementation strategies.