Introduction to Tajikistan: A Brief Introduction

Tajikistan is a landlocked Central Asian country sharing borders with Kyrgyzstan, China, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. Its population of approximately 10.1 million (2023)1 is about 72% rural.2 Tajikistan has a continental climate with hot summers and cold winters, characterized by its aridity and mountainous terrain, which includes the Pamir and Alay mountain ranges. The country’s topography makes it prone to natural disasters such as droughts, floods, mudslides, and landslides. Agriculture is a dominant sector, employing 45.7% of the workforce and contributing around 22.6% to its GDP3 of approximately $12 billion USD (2023).3 Tajikistan's economy is heavily reliant on remittances, which make up about 32% of the GDP, the highest dependency rate on remittances among European and Central Asian countries,4 highlighting its vulnerability to exogenous economic shifts. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and subsequent civil war in the 1990s have left an enduring effect on the country’s infrastructure, economic stability, and social cohesion, exacerbating its limitations to respond effectively to climate impacts.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Relative to other countries, Tajikistan’s current vulnerabilities are manageable but improvements in readiness are critical in ensuring long-lasting resilience to climate challenges. Tajikistan is the 130th most vulnerable country and the 140th most ready country as ranked in the ND-GAIN Country Index.5 The country’s mountainous regions and rural populations are particularly susceptible to climate impacts. As of 2010, it is estimated that about 20,000 people in Tajikistan are affected by river flooding each year, assuming that existing flood protection can handle events that occur once every 25 years.6 Tajikistan also faces significant risks from glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which occur when dams holding back accumulated water in high altitude areas are breached, which can also occur as a result of, or cause, landslides, and dangerous mudflows. The Central Asian region is known to be a hotspot of vulnerability to GLOFs, with estimates of approximately 6,300 deaths due to GLOFs in the region since 1940, a figure which is likely an underestimate due to limited records. The Pamir region of Tajikistan is believed to have the highest risks, but these are not well understood.6 Juxtaposing these flood risks is Tajikistan's vulnerability to droughts caused by extreme aridity. Compared to the 1986-2005 average, Tajikistan's annual mean temperature is expected to increase by between 1.3°C and 6.3°C by 2080, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.7 Such patterns are directly impacting increasing rates of climate displacement across the country. Between 2008 and 2023, Tajikistan experienced 21 major climate disaster events that included wet landmass movements, floods, and storms. Between 2008 and 2015, there were 11,730 reported displacements attributed to such events, and between 2016 and 2023, these displacements more than doubled to 23,040.8 A notable recent event was the torrential rains of August 2023, which caused extensive flooding, claiming at least 21 lives and displacing over 1000 people.9   

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The political economy of Tajikistan is characterized by its dependence on remittances and agriculture, with limited industrial diversification. Climate change worsens this economic instability by affecting agricultural productivity and increasing disaster-related expenditures. Despite the agriculture and livestock sector's dominance in the Tajik economy, only about 30% of the country's land is classified as agricultural, with just 7% being arable. Of this agricultural land, 81% is rainfed pastureland and highly susceptible to depletion in drought periods and rising global temperatures.10 Tajikistan’s agrarian population is made uniquely vulnerable under worsening climate patterns, with at least 10% of the population already living on degraded lands, while soil erosion affects about 70% of arable land.11 Such eroded soils often become wet landmass movements during torrential rain seasons, with increased frequency of landslides and mudflows causing damage amounting to about $750 million over the past decade.6  Average annual loss (AAL) from flooding alone is $60.8 million in Tajikistan, with over 79% of annual loss from floods occurring in Khatlon Region, where AAL exceeds $48 million. Flood events in 2010 and 1998 caused over $100 million in damage across much of the country. Such events also carry widespread indirect health costs. In 2004, torrential rain resulted in severe flooding throughout much of the country, contaminating water supplies in Dushanbe, leaving 400,000 people in the capital without access to safe drinking water.12

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Tajikistan, constituting 0.13 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.03 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.13  In 2021, Tajikistan submitted its updated first NDC, setting an unconditional target to reduce emissions by 30-40% and a conditional target to reduce emissions by 40-50% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.14 The Tajikistani government also aims to generate 100% of its energy from green sources by 2032 to achieve such emission targets.15 Tajikistan’s dependence on hydropower has maintained its total and per capita greenhouse gas emissions as the lowest in Central Asia and among the lowest globally. The completion of the Rogun hydropower plant is expected to double the country’s clean energy production capacity. While agriculture remains a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, Tajikistan’s emissions per unit of agricultural production are the lowest in Central Asia.16 To address climate-induced displacement, Tajikistan is also working to improve its disaster preparedness and response systems, although implementation remains a challenge due to limited resources. The Tajikistan government has integrated climate-related migration into national policies through frameworks such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Global Compact for Migration.17  

Necessary Changes

Tajikistan actively demonstrates its commitment to achieving emissions reductions and carbon neutrality through significant climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that include its global leadership in hydropower integration. International cooperation and support are now crucial to enhance Tajikistan's adaptive capacity and resilience to the climate crisis. This includes international support for the development of climate-resilient infrastructure, expanding access to just climate transitions, and fostering greater regional cooperation. In Tajikistan, particularly in remote areas such as the Bartang Valley, residents often face physical barriers such as road blockages and destruction due to avalanches, snowfall, and river flooding.18 These occurrences often trap people and limit their ability to safely evacuate, thus, investing in both infrastructure and policy development to address these challenges is crucial for enhancing disaster resilience. Tajikistan must also address its geopolitical challenges. In September 2022, armed conflict broke out between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan along a 110-kilometer segment of their disputed border in the fertile Fergana Valley. This area is critical as it includes river choke points that supply water to Batken, the district capital on the Kyrgyz side, and large areas of irrigated farmland in Tajikistan. The border, left undemarcated since the two nations' independence in 1991, has frequently been a hotspot for conflict.19  To foster long-term climate resilience and stability, Tajikistan must address these geopolitical tensions with its neighbors. Actively addressing the scarcity that is the root of these conflicts is crucial for ensuring a sustainable and cooperative ecological future for all within the region.