Syria: A Brief Introduction

With a population of nearly 21.3 million people, the Syrian Arab Republic lies on the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean, just south of Turkey and North of Jordan.1 Most of the country consists of desert climate in the east and south-east, hot semi-arid climate in the north, hot summer mediterranean climate in the west and some parts of the north, cold semi-arid climate in the southwest, and some cold desert climates in the south.2 Many experts believe that Syria’s major drought, lasting from 2006 to 2010, as well as Assad’s poor water management policies, played a significant role in the tensions which led to the current civil war. As of 2021, the war has killed 500,000 people, internally displaced 7 million people, and 5.5 million have fled the country.3 No objective analysis of the impact of the climate crisis can overstate the effects of the civil war on the country’s ability to mitigate and adapt to the continuous climate related challenges in the coming decades. 

Mapping Climate Events & Climate-Induced Displacement

In recent history, Syria has experienced floods,4 wildfires,5 and most devastatingly, droughts.6 From 2006 to 2011, Syria experienced what some have called the ‘‘worst long-term drought and most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent many millennia ago.”7 The drought led to crop failures and the internal displacement of 1.5 million Syrians8 from the east who previously relied on the agriculture industry. Given ever-increasing temperatures due to climate change, Syria will continue to experience record heat waves and drought. As of 2021, the country is once again facing a record-breaking drought with the current one being the worst in the last 70 years.9 Such a phenomenon will continue to decimate local agriculture as well as the grazing of animals, thus exacerbating the precarity of local livelihoods.    

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

A significant dimension of Syria’s humanitarian crises during the late 2010s was the 2006-2010 drought which led to severe economic disaster. Syria’s agriculture sector employed 40% of Syria’s workforce and accounted for 25% of GDP. Approximately one million people were severely affected and food insecure, particularly in the northeast – home to Syria’s most vulnerable, agriculture-dependant families.6 In 2021, Syria as well as neighboring Iraq are once again experiencing a drought of historic proportions. According to a local tribal leader in Syria, “this year we have witnessed a wave of intense drought and as a result our lands did not produce any crops and we don’t have any sources of drinkable water either for us or for our animals.”10 With the current trajectory of climate change, Syria will only continue to experience severe droughts that will only exacerbate the current conflict.

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

In order to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis, several policies need to be implemented in Syria. The most critical are: effective water resources management, conservation of biodiversity, combating land degradation and desertification, integrate coastal zone management plans, and the development of early warning systems for droughts and extreme weather conditions.11 Due to the war, few initiatives have been undertaken by the government and other organizations. All sides, in particular the government and Russian forces, have targeted infrastructure across the country and prioritized winning the war rather than ensuring Syria can be prepared for the climate crisis. Despite the urgency of the climate crisis and its severity on Syria, few sides in the conflict appear willing to address the difficulties facing the Syrian people or in investing to mitigate the future impacts of the climate crisis. 

Necessary Changes

Given the current drought and the condition of the country, Syria must receive assistance immediately through international engagement. The climate crisis cannot be addressed without acknowledging the difficulties that the current conflict poses in creating mechanisms to assist the Syrian people. International aid could unintentionally help the Assad regime tighten its grip on the country while other groups in the country have dubious affiliations. Therefore, the international community must assist both by engaging to end the current crisis and by assisting the millions of Syrian refugees in the surrounding countries. Immediate aid must also be distributed to Syrians in the country but due diligence must be taken to ensure it does not assist the brutal Assad regime.