Introduction to Sudan

Located in northeastern Africa and situated between sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, Sudan is a country of 45.7 million people,1 38% of whom are employed in agriculture.2 Some estimates place the number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood as high as 80% of the population.3 Northern Sudan has an arid desert climate while the south is semi-arid. Much of the fertile agricultural and grazing land is located in the Nile valleys and other southern regions.4 Oil, agriculture, and livestock are the most economically valuable industries in Sudan with agriculture serving as the largest employer in the country. The climate crisis threatens to increase desertification, increase irregular rainfall patterns, and change the water levels of the Nile River which would devastate the agriculture sector. Following the overthrow of longtime dictator Omar Al-Bashir in 2019, Sudan has been in a tense political environment. At the time of this writing, factions in the military and paramilitary forces are in armed conflict rather than addressing the critical issues facing the country relating to the climate crisis and beyond.5

Mapping Climate Events & Climate-Induced Displacement

Sudan, and the rural population in particular, is significantly vulnerable to drought, sand storms, desertification, and flooding. Fooding has become the primary sudden onset climate event driving climate displacement in Sudan, particularly in North Darfur, Khartoum, Blue Nile, West Darfur and Sennar states.6 For example, in 2020 alone flooding displaced over 450,000 people7 and impacted over 830,000 marking some of the worst flooding in 100 years.8 While flooding devastated agriculture in the immediate term, drought threatens to reduce the total amount of cultivable land in Sudan.9 As of May 2022, 5.6 million people are being affected by ongoing dry periods, and a total of 16 million are food insecure. It is estimated that a total of 18 million individuals will be facing acute hunger in September of 2022.10  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Sudan is $34.44 billion with a GDP per capita of $752.11 Years of sanctions by the U.S, domestic conflicts, corruption, and political turmoil have prevented meaningful reform in agriculture. A lack of resilience in the agriculture sector has increased the cost of food by 170-235 percent and devastated the economically disadvantaged.12 Currently, various humanitarian pledges have culminated in a relief funding goal of a total of $1.94 billion by the end of 2022.13 According to the 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution, Sudan requires a total of $1.2 billion USD for adaptation measures, and $11.68 billion USD for mitigation, via cyclical contributions every 5-10 years.14  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Sudan’s 2021 updated Nationally Determined Contribution describes current and proposed mitigation and adaptation efforts. In terms of mitigation, Sudan aims to limit deforestation by reducing the number of wood-burning appliances used and restoring forests throughout the country. Other goals include transitioning to renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydro, and blending bio and fossil fuels in petrol for more sustainable transportation. Waste management is also a priority, and Sudan has established a goal of composting 60% of organic waste and recycling 15% of its waste total. In terms of adaptation, water management, monitoring, and infrastructure, especially in the face of recurring droughts and flooding, is crucial. Agriculturally, Sudan is looking to invest in resilient seed development and risk mapping in order to maximize crop yield even during climate events. Finally, Sudan aims to develop health services in order to meet the rising needs caused by the climate crisis, and local health initiatives to raise awareness in communities of health risks and safety measures to prevent them.15  

Necessary Changes

Sudan already has a vision for significant investment in the agriculture sector to ensure resilience to drought and floods. Now, it is necessary for the country and international community to ensure a political environment in Sudan that is conducive to the implementation, efficacy, and funding of planned projects and future strategies. The international community must support the end of the current military violence and a just transition towards civilian rule in Sudan. Farmers must be given the tools necessary to ensure adequate yields to maintain price stability in food markets and prevent pain on the working class of Sudan. Internationally-backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground to ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition, and also help bolster the participation of directly impacted local communities in decision-making. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, Sudan and agricultural resilience can also be sustained and expanded.