Introduction to Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is an island nation located in South Asia within the Indian Ocean. Its population is 21.9 million people1 and it is about 81% rural.2 Currently, only around 1% of the population lives at or below the official poverty line of $2.15 USD per day. However, inequality persists as the income of the lowest 20% of the population accounts for only 7.4% of total income,3 and 22% of Sri Lanka’s population remains undernourished.4 Sri Lanka has a tropical climate with three distinct areas: a wetter, tropical rainforest climate in the south; an intermediate monsoon climate in the central region; and a drier tropical savanna climate in the north. The service sector makes up 56.8% of GDP, the industry sector accounts for 27% of GDP, and agriculture is 7.9% of GDP.5 Moreover, 30%6 of the labor force works in agriculture and 85%7 of subsistence food is locally produced. The main food crop is rice, and leading export items include textiles, tea, rubber, precious stones, and coconut.5 A British colony until 1948, Sri Lanka remains subject to external interests and internal pressures. For example, the United States is its largest trading partner, making up 26.8% of export partnership, and the country faces a growing  amount of public debt –from 2018 to 2021, public debt grew from 91% to 119% of GDP.8 The country has also experienced a decades-long ethnically-rooted civil war that lasted from 1983 to 2009.9 Exposed to such pressures and dynamics, Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to climate-related impacts.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

With respect to climate vulnerability,  Sri Lanka ranks 104 out of 191 countries in the 2024 Risk Inform Index and ranks 80 in terms of heat and hazard exposure.10 It is estimated that 87% of the country’s population lives in hotspots of medium or severe caliber with respect to potential climate impacts.11 The frequency of climate-related events has only increased, as from 2008 to 2014 there were 35 disaster events reported and from 2015 to 2022 this increased to 304 disaster events reported. Overall, there have been over 3.4 million internal displacements between 2008 and 2022 as a result of 339 disaster events.12 Among these disaster events, floods and landslides in 2017 contributed to displacement of over 500,000 individuals and the death of 213 individuals.13 In Sri Lanka’s drier regions, droughts that same year affected over 1.9 million individuals over 17 districts, caused 300,000 households to be food insecure, and doubled debts for 50% of households due to the loss of agriculture-based income.14 Alongside such climate impacts, political conflict and warfare in Sri Lanka resulted in 290,000 internally displaced peoples by the end of the civil war that lasted between 1983 to 2009.12

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Currently, Sri Lanka’s GDP is $343.94 billion USD.15 Between 1990 to 2018, flooding caused more than $2 billion USD in damages.16 The damage from flooding and landslides in 2016 alone totalled over $473 million USD and over $368 million USD in 2017.17 Economic sectors including agriculture and fisheries have experienced pronounced losses due to short and long term climate impacts. For example in the 2016-2017 droughts, this affected over 45% of Sri Lanka’s staple food item, also known as paddy crop, and led to over 900,000 individuals food insecure as a result of this drought event.18 Due to these and other impacts, agricultural yields are projected, by 2060, to decline by 12% to 19% in the Maha season and 27% to 41% in the Yala season, exposing a significant amount of the population to increased food insecurity and a projected 12% to 26% increase in poverty.4 Similar to the agricultural sector, the fisheries sector accounts for 80% of total catch with regards to fish, employs over 2.4 million people whether formally or informally, and provides 70% of total animal protein nutrition for the population.19 Short term impacts to this sector include increasing temperatures and long term impacts have been linked with ocean acidification.4 Under the SRES scenario A1B, it is estimated that there could be a decrease in fish catch by 20% by 2050 affecting not only this sector contributing 1.2% of GDP, but also causing food insecurity to many of those reliant on fisheries for protein intake.20 Overall, it's estimated that by 2050, annual GDP losses due to climate change could reach 1.2% and increase to 6.5% by 2100.21  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Although Sri Lanka only contributes 0.06% of global CO2 emissions, the country has made commitments to reduce their emissions by 4% under the Business as Usual Scenario of the Paris Agreement by 2030 and by 14.5% conditional on international support. They also are working to fully reduce emissions to net zero by 2050. This will be supported by their current Energy Policy passed in 2019, which aims to increase local renewable energy sites, diversify its electricity grid (developing solar, wind, hydro, and biomass-related electricity production), and decrease reliance on the importation of fossil fuels. This will also support its target to achieve 70% renewable energy in the electricity grid by 2030. WIthin the fisheries sector, Sri Lanka has also committed to implementing an Ecosystem-based Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) in specific areas of high vulnerability, expanding its aquaculture fishery system, breeding resilient and valuable aquatic species, and increasing production capabilities to 30 vulnerable lagoon locations. Within the agricultural sector, Sri Lanka has committed to implementing Climate Smart Agriculture in its policies, enhancing early warning systems and risk management strategies for exposed communities, and working to enforce pest management and nutrition plans. Sri Lanka has gone further to also commit to increase forest cover by 32% by 2030. In terms of its climate migration policy, Sri Lanka has built up the infrastructure for a strong labor migration network through its National Labour Migration policy in 2008 and National Action Plan on Return and Reintegration of Migrant Workers Sri Lanka policy in 2015.22 They have also worked on resettlement initiatives (e.g., through its National Building Research Organization) to assist with relocating those in at-risk landslide communities to safer areas.23

Necessary Changes

Sri Lanka has made significant commitments to reduce its emissions, create an electricity grid prioritizing renewable energy, improve the adaptive resilience of its fisheries and agricultural system, and implement strong migration pathways in terms of relocation of vulnerable communities and labor migration networks. However, in order to accomplish these goals, it is imperative for the international community to support Sri Lanka in a just transition. This includes programs to alleviate Sri Lanka’s high debt burden that has hindered the country's ability to effectively implement climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This also includes external governments working to decrease pressures on extractive economic pursuits within Sri Lanka to encourage the localization and further diversification of its economy. For example, the United States, as Sri Lanka’s top trade partner, imports mostly from Sri Lanka’s apparel sector, which has been linked with exploitation of local Sri Lankan communities in terms of labor law violations, unsafe work environments, and unfair benefits.24 On the national level, Sri Lanka must make it a priority to further democratize its economic system in order to stabilize its political situation as well as uplift participation of its vulnerable or frontline laborers. With the support of the international community, Sri Lanka will be able to fully realize its goals in a just transition.