Introduction to South Africa

South Africa, the third largest economy in Africa, has a population of 59.9 million people1 , of which 32% is rural.2 The coastal nation’s climate zones greatly vary by geography, with hot desert climate in the north-west, cold desert and semi-arid climate in the south-west, monsoon-influenced temperate oceanic climate in the north-west, and hot semi-arid climate in the north-east.3 The country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly storms, floods, drought, and wildfires. Endowed with abundant mineral resources, South Africa has one of the most developed mining industries in the continent, contributing 8% to the GDP, earning over 50% of the export revenue, and employing about half a million people.4 The African nation is the world’s seventh largest producer of coal5 and the eighth largest producer of gold.6 The agriculture sector contributes only 2.6% to the country’s GDP7 but employs over one fifth of the working population.8 Despite the end of apartheid in South Africa in the early 1990s, black Africans, making up over three fourths of the country’s population, possess a mere 4% of individual farms, in stark contrast to the 72% owned by white individuals, who comprise less than 10% of the population.9 Legacies of South Africa’s colonial and apartheid periods continue to reproduce entrenched cycles of poverty, increase the country’s dependence on extractive and export-oriented industries, as well as exacerbate the country’s vulnerability to the climate crisis. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

South Africa is highly vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 24 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.10 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are floods, droughts, storms, and wildfires, which account for over 72% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.11 Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 7 separate years of flood and 5 separate years of storms with the number increasing to 13 and 11 between 2001 and 2020. In 2015 alone, 2.7 million South Africans were impacted by drought while in 2019, the number stood at 750,000. Between 2008 and 2022, 53 disaster events were reported in South Africa, amongst which floods displaced 179,000 people, storms displaced 18,000 and wildfire displaced 14,000.12 Over the span from 2015 to 2018, the city of Cape Town confronted an unprecedented drought event, the severity of which is statistically estimated to occur only once every 400 years.13 This prolonged water scarcity crisis posed an existential threat to the metropolis, home to approximately 4.6 million inhabitants, and brought it to the brink of ‘Day Zero,’ a point at which the city would run out of water.14 Subsequently, in April 2022, the southeastern region of South Africa was ravaged by intense rainfall, leading to severe flooding and landslides.15 This resulted in the loss of 448 lives, displacement of more than 40,000 people, and complete destruction of over 12,000 houses. These devastating disasters underscore the extreme vulnerability of the region to climate extremities. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Although South Africa’s GDP is US$ 405.9 billion16 , it is recognized as the world's most unequal country in terms of wealth distribution.17 Spanning diverse sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, and tourism, the potential economic ramifications of climate impacts on South Africa are high. Without swift intervention, the country could witness a 5.03% GDP decline by 2050, escalating to 13.5% by 2100.18  The persistent socio-economic inequalities rooted in South Africa's apartheid history play a pivotal role in determining the extent to which climate impacts are experienced by various communities. In addition to situating black communities away from economic prospects, the apartheid regime's spatial planning regulations often placed them in flood-prone regions.19 During the recent destructive floods in KwaZulu-Natal, the most severely impacted areas were impoverished townships and those situated on floodplains.20 The projected cost to facilitate the process of reconstruction and recovery in the aftermath of the flood is estimated to amount to about US$ 1 billion.21 Approximately 24% of South Africa's urban population resides in informal settlements, constituting one of the most vulnerable communities to climate impacts.22 A significant number of these settlements are located in environmentally precarious zones, encompassing flood-prone areas, low-lying terrains, or regions characterized by steep slopes and unstable soils.

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

South Africa, constituting 0.76 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 1.26 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.23 Relying heavily on coal for electricity, South Africa ranks among the top 15 global greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters.24 South Africa pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of capping greenhouse gas emissions at 398-510 MtCO2e by 2025 and 350-420 MtCO2e by 2030.25 In its Low-Emission Development Strategy, South Africa has also set the goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050. South Africa went into the ambitious Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) with five key players, which will support its decarbonization efforts while ensuring existing inequities are not exacerbated.26 In terms of adaptation, South Africa has identified the following key areas for strengthening adaptation and resilience: transport, agriculture, energy, settlements, biodiversity, and water. With extensive nationwide power outages, the government in July 2022 shared a list of potentially effective measures to tackle the South African electricity crisis, including elimination of licensing for distributed energy generation, and segmentation of state-owned utility Eskom into three entities for generation, transmission, and distribution. However, the actual execution of these plans is uncertain due to conflicting government statements about shifting to zero-carbon electricity and persistent delays in enforcing current policies.

Necessary Changes

South Africa, as a nation, has some good policies that hold the potential for significant positive impact. However, a persistent discrepancy between policy formulation and practical execution has emerged as a critical challenge, necessitating urgent attention and remediation. Addressing this disjuncture is of great importance, especially in the context of addressing socio-economic inequality, alleviating the persistent cycles of poverty, and fostering climate resilience within the country. The devastating consequences of climate change on South Africa's marginalized, low-income, and overburdened communities underscore the immediate need for a just transition. The international community needs to step up and support South Africa through financial support, capacity building, and knowledge transfer. In order to enhance resilience in the face of entrenched socio-economic inequalities and climate impacts, South Africa must adopt a comprehensive approach combining equitable infrastructure development in marginalized areas, community engagement and empowerment, and climate-resilient urban planning. As South Africa acts on its commitments to transition to clean energy, it must concurrently prioritize safeguarding the livelihoods of workers in the fossil fuel industry. Through the implementation of retraining initiatives, facilitating job transitions, and providing social safety nets, the country can mitigate the potential adverse effects of the transition on impacted workers and local communities.