Introduction to Singapore

Singapore, a bustling Southeast Asian island state located off the southern tip of Malaysia, has a population of 5.9 million,1 of which 0% is rural.2 Due to its small surface area of just 728 square kilometers,3  Singapore experiences a uniform tropical rainforest climate throughout the island.4 As a flat, low-lying state near the equator, Singapore has witnessed extreme weather events like monsoons, heavy rainfall, and flooding. With few natural resources, Singapore is highly dependent on international trade, with its service and manufacturing industries acting as the twin pillars of its export-oriented economy.5 The industrial sector accounted for 24.8% of the country’s GDP, while the value-added service sector contributed 75.2%—an area that has steadily risen since 2000.6 As a member of the Four Asian Tigers, Singapore’s business-friendly policies and political stability have attracted thousands of multinational conglomerates to establish regional headquarters on the island, further diversifying the value-added sector. This has enabled the country to have annual GDP growth among the world’s highest, averaging about 7% since its independence from the British in 1963.7  

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Singapore is highly vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis, with rising sea levels, intense rainfall, and droughts acting as high-risk events that can threaten the island’s very existence.8 It is important to note that most of the country is within 15 meters of sea level, while around 30% of Singapore’s total land area is less than 5 meters above sea level.9 Furthermore, as an equatorial island, Singapore faces amplified sea level rising from melting polar ice sheets at the North Pole and Antarctica.10 As the third most densely populated country in the world,11 Singapore is also subject to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, which explains why highly urbanized areas tend to trap and release heat at higher rates.12 Singapore also faces an extreme threat from water security in the wake of the climate crisis, as seen with the 2016 Malaysian Linggiu Reservoir Water Crisis. Regional dry spells caused the Malaysian reservoir—from which Singapore derives about 50% of its total water13 —to plunge to only 20% of its total capacity,14 causing dire concern for millions of Singaporeans on their daily water necessities. Although Singapore has not had any major climate-induced displacements in the past, studies have shown that a sea level rise of 2 meters can displace over 187 million people in Southeast Asia—including all of Singapore.15 Rising sea levels and temperatures present an ominous outlook for the island’s future, as they are expected to intensify and further exacerbate Singapore’s existing vulnerabilities in the coming decades. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Singapore is $501.4 billion,16 while the GDP per capita is $84,734,17 making the island one of the wealthiest countries in the world. As a major financial hub, Singapore’s core service sector is paramount to the island but faces significant threats from the climate crisis due to its location on vulnerable land. If 1.5C of warming occurs, rising sea levels can flood S$70 billion of prime real estate, including the iconic Marina Bay Sands and surrounding areas,18 which can inflict severe financial damage on Singaporean businesses while having international repercussions in global supply chain operations. Even with current mitigation measures that the government has in place, some reports estimate that the climate crisis will result in 1-20.2% of Singapore’s total GDP being lost,19 while others estimate losses northwards of 46% of GDP being lost through rising sea levels and heat stress.20 With increasing temperatures in Singapore, research has shown that heat stress on the island can result in a median income loss of S$21 per worker, about 24% of the daily median salary of workers.21 Due to this heat stress, the average annual percentage reduction in productive working in four sectors is expected to be 14% by 2035 in Singapore, resulting in an economic output loss of S$2.22 billion.21 Furthermore, it is crucial to note that Singapore has an agricultural sector that accounts for less than 1% of its economy, resulting in the island importing over 90% of its food from 180 different countries.22 This poses a significant threat to the island’s future food security and distribution operations, as foreign exporters may begin to prioritize domestic needs as arable land becomes less viable. As the population grows and food demand increases, this dependency makes Singapore especially vulnerable and susceptible to the climate crisis, which can result in human loss and billions of dollars in financial turmoil. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Despite only representing 0.07% of the world’s population,23 Singapore ranks 21st in CO2 emissions per capita,24 illustrating the island’s dire need to break free of its fossil fuel dependency. Toward these ends, Singapore has ratified all major international climate treaties25  and announced in 2022 that they intend to peak emission use at 65 MtCO2e around 2030, allowing the island to have a 36% reduction in Emissions Intensity (EI) from 2005 levels.26 They also strive to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in their updated Long-Term Low-Emissions Development Strategy(LEDS),27 which will be achieved through a primary four-pronged approach based on business transformation, investments in low-carbon technology, pursuing effective international cooperation, and adopting low-carbon practices.28 Based on past performance, Singapore’s goals seem plausible; in 2009, they pledged to reduce emissions by 16% below Business-As-Usual(BAU) levels by 2020 and exceeded this target by reducing total emissions by 32%.28 Toward these ends, and in order to push domestic manufacturers and consumers away from carbon-intensive products, Singapore devised and released an effective carbon tax in 2019 that covers 80% of all GHG emissions.29 30  Currently, Singapore has the highest carbon tax rate in Asia.31 Other key strategies that Singapore employs include: coastal protection, such as raising the minimum land reclamation level from 3 meters to 4 meters in 2011; water resource management, including local catchment and desalinated water;32 and drainage and flood prevention efforts through flood barriers, improved drains and canals, and on-site detention.32  

Necessary Changes

Necessary changes include further investments in research, developing protection strategies against sea level rise, managing water supplies, keeping essential services running, maintaining safe infrastructure and buildings, and strengthening public health and food safety resilience.33 As a highly urbanized city, Singapore needs to ensure that existing biodiversity is protected and not subject to development, as the outer mangrove forests can reduce storm wave heights by 75% and soak up 4x more carbon than rainforests.34 Over the past two centuries, Singapore has also pursued aggressive land reclamation tactics to expand its land area by almost 719 square kilometers (25%).35 Yet, despite the increase in designated elevation, Singaporeans who live in reclaimed areas are especially susceptible to the impacts of the climate crisis, as reclaimed land tends to be low-lying and constructed with sand, meaning that they face higher chances of flooding and saltwater intrusion. Furthermore, the island has the important task of addressing new forms of power generation, as power accounts for 39.2% of Singapore’s total emissions36 and is mainly generated through non-renewable sources. As a largely trade-dependent nation, the combined effects of the climate crisis and significant regional dynamics, including geoeconomic tensions between the US and China, can prove detrimental to Singapore’s political alliances, economic stability, and capacity for climate resilience. At the same time, Singapore has already highlighted its investment in building climate resilience across the region. Finally, although considered an eligible nation to receive support from the Loss and Damage Fund, Singapore will not claim any financial need from the budget but will instead support fellow island countries tapping into the funds who may face technical challenges.37