Introduction to Senegal

Senegal, a coastal nation located in West Africa, has a population of 17.3 million people,1 of which 51% is rural.2 Ranked 170 out of 190 countries in UN’s Human Development Index,3 Senegal exhibits a low GDP per capita of $1,588.5 and a poverty rate of 39%.4 Senegal’s climate zones vary by geography, with tropical savanna climate in the south, hot semi-arid climate in the central regions, and hot desert climate in the north.5 The country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly floods and drought. Senegal’s economy is characterized by a mix of sectors, including agriculture, mining, construction, and tourism, with agriculture playing a significant role employing 22.6% of the working population6 and contributing 16% to the country's GDP.7 Tourism is an important part of Senegal’s economy, contributing 9% to the country's GDP and providing over 350,000 jobs.8 One of the top ten producers of phosphate in the world, Senegal is endowed with vast mineral resources with the mining sector contributing 38% to total export revenue in 2020.9  After recently discovering natural gas, Senegal is actively working towards becoming a major producer and exporter in the region. While the west African nation gained independence from French rule in 1960, colonial legacies of investment practices continue to shape Senegal’s dependence on extractive, export-oriented industry such as the mining sector as well as its vulnerability to the climate crisis. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Senegal is moderately vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 70 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.10 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are floods, droughts, epidemics and storms, which account for over 90% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.11 Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 6 years of flood with the number increasing to 12 between 2001 and 2020. In 2018 alone, 320,000 Senegalese were affected by drought.12 Between 2008 and 2022, 16 disaster events were reported in Senegal, amongst which floods displaced  over 340,000 people while storms displaced 11,000 more.13 Being a high risk zone for erosion and extreme weather events with thousands of people living in camps for internally displaced people, the coastal city of Saint Louis in Northern Senegal is a hotspot for out-migration.14 In 2022, torrential rain led to destructive flooding in three urban areas displacing 1,396 families, and destroying houses and schools.15 Furthermore, the impact of climate change in Senegal is giving rise to more frequent and intense conflicts between farmers and migratory pastoralists, exacerbating existing tensions resulting from governance and land right issues, and posing significant challenges to both livelihoods and social cohesion.16

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Senegal is US$ 27.68 billion,17 with 27.7 percent of its population living in severe multidimensional poverty.18 Senegal's urban coastal zone, home to approximately 67 percent of the country's population and responsible for about 90 percent of its industrial production, faces a grave threat from the increasing risk of flooding.19 Furthermore, more than 30% of Senegal’s urban population live in informal settlements, which are characterized by a lack of proper infrastructure, basic services, and legal recognition.20 Senegal is witnessing significant coastal erosion, accelerated by the rising sea levels, leading to an annual loss of 1-2 meters of shoreline along its sandy beaches and 0.1-0.7 meters along rocky coastline areas.21 Each year, about 200,000 people in Senegal are impacted by flooding, resulting in staggering losses amounting to USD 89 million.22 The risk of flooding is exacerbated by uncontrolled urbanization, inadequate drainage systems, and insufficient sewage infrastructure. Senegal could face a reduction of between 13 and 18% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the year 2050 due to climate change.23 Beyond the impacts of climate hazards, the creation of exclusion zones around recently discovered natural gas reserves is posing severe challenges to the lives and livelihoods of fishermen in Senegal.24

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Senegal, constituting 0.22 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.02 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.25 Senegal pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 7% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and 29% with substantial international support.26 Senegal has prioritized a number of mitigation measures to combat climate change, centering on enhancing carbon sequestration in both the agriculture and forestry sectors.27 This strategic approach is complemented by a strong emphasis on adopting renewable energies, bolstering energy efficiency practices, and advancing improved waste management processes. The adaptation measures employed by Senegal are geared towards enhancing the resilience of ecosystems and safeguarding communities from the adverse impacts of climate-related risks. The country's approach emphasizes the reinforcement of climate, ocean, and coastal observation systems, as well as the meticulous collection of essential data.27 Through the Scaling up Climate Ambition on Land Use and Agriculture (SCALA) programme, Senegal is advancing agro-ecological solutions as part of embedding climate measures in agriculture and land use sectors.28  

Necessary Changes

Senegal, despite its minimal contribution to global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, serves as an important example of how developing countries shoulder an unequal burden in addressing the impacts of climate change. It is now critical for the global community to support Senegal in a just transition that is inclusive of its underserved, low-income, and at-risk communities. The impending consequences of climate change are anticipated to amplify the difficulties faced by particularly at-risk communities living in Senegal’s informal urban settlements, compounding their existing challenges and vulnerabilities. To tackle this crisis, it is important for the country to prioritize comprehensive measures that encompass both short-term and long-term strategies, including investments in resilient infrastructure, improved urban planning, and the implementation of robust flood management systems. Despite abandoning plans to further develop coal-fired power generation, Senegal is actively pursuing its 'gas to power' strategy to transition its electricity production from primarily relying on heavy oil fuel to utilizing fossil gas. It is imperative for the Senegalese government to shift its focus from extractive and environmentally destructive sectors, such as mining and gas extraction, and instead redirect its efforts towards fostering a sustainable and regenerative economy. Furthermore,  it is essential to introduce participatory natural resource management and take into account the needs and priorities of traditional fishing communities sidelined by natural gas expansion.