Introduction to Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is a country in the north-central region on the Arabian Peninsula with a population of approximately 36 million people,1 85% of which are located in urban regions.2 Saudi Arabia has an arid climate characterized by extreme heat and minimal rainfall. Vast deserts comprise the majority of the nation’s landscape, and it is the only country to border both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, wherein the latter lies Hejaz, the cradle of Islam and the site of its holiest cities, Mecca and Medina. Saudi Arabia's economy is heavily reliant on the oil industry, which accounts for about 40% of GDP and accounts for 17% of the world’s oil reserves.3 The GDP of Saudi Arabia is approximately $1.07 trillion,4 with a per capita GDP of approximately $29,000.5 Though a relatively young nation —modern-day Saudi Arabia was established in 1932 through the unification of Hejaz and Najd, Saudi Arabia is heir to an extensive history.6 The histories of water and oil in the Saudi Arabia are closely intertwined, exemplified by the initial discovery of oil occurring while searching for a reliable water source for Jeddah.7 Today, Saudi Arabia invests billions of dollars in hosting international entertainment, cultural, and sporting events, which critics argue aim to divert attention from its poor human rights record.8 These investments are directly tied to its Vision 2030 initiative,9 aimed at diversifying the economy away from oil dependency and towards leisure and tourism, an industry that has been recognized for its negative impact on the environment.10 Saudi Arabia’s political economy highlights the vulnerability to intensified climate impacts, particularly due to the country's severe heatwaves and water scarcity concerns.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Though regionally vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis, Saudi Arabia’s expansive wealth allows for a high level of climate readiness (ranked 37 of 191 nations) in contrast to its overall vulnerability (102 of 185 nations) as ranked by the ND-GAIN Country Index.11 However, under current conditions, Saudi Arabia is projected to see an 88% increase in the frequency of agricultural drought by 2050 with heat waves lasting more than 4,242% longer.12 Worsening climate conditions could have severe effects on Saudi Arabia’s coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and altered storm patterns could expose approximately 210,000 people to devastating floods by 2050 under its current high-carbon pathway.13 The central and eastern regions, alongside metropoles such as Riyadh and Jeddah, are particularly susceptible to the effects of extreme heat and water shortages, with both regions already experiencing average summer heat between 47 and 50°C.14 For example, the extreme heatwave in 2024 resulted in temperatures exceeding 51°C, wherein least 1,300 people died in the extreme heat the Hajj pilgrimage.15 Further, the number of internally displaced people due to recent climate events is increasing, compounded by the limited availability of water resources and suitable refuge areas. Between 2008 and 2015, there were over 22,700 flood induced displacements throughout the country, with 3,420 displacements reported between 2016 and 2023.16 While climate change effects in Saudi Arabia threaten the entire country, certain demographic groups, including migrant workers, sectarian minorities, and the "stateless" Bedouin population, are expected to bear a disproportionately heavier burden, especially as related to limited water resources. Water stress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—is primarily caused by limited water supply. Saudi Arabia ranks as the third highest per capita water consumer globally, surpassed only by the United States and Canada. This level of consumption alongside regional scarcity has prompted Saudi Arabia to invest heavily in desalination, a process that provides 70% of drinking water across the country.17  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The economic costs of climate impacts are significant, and while event-specific costs in the region are limited due to the nature of major events (predominantly heat waves and controlled flooding), projected losses and damages amount to millions of dollars. Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, owes reparations worth $43bn annually in climate reparations to compensate communities most affected–including Saudi Arabia’s own marginalized communities–by their polluting activities and years of misinformation, according to a 2023 study. This figure is also related to climate-related damages, including droughts, wildfires, sea level rise, and melting glaciers, expected between 2025 and 2050.18 Intense heat waves, coupled with rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and more severe weather, already entail steep economic costs for the country. For example, three major flash flood events occurred in Jeddah during 25 November 2009, December 2010 and January 2011, wherein over 100 people lost their lives and over 26,000 were displaced. These floods resulted in an economic loss amounting to approximately one billion dollars and compensation for those affected was estimated at 2 billion dollars.19 Such climate impacts are projected to further disrupt Saudi Arabia's economy, potentially resulting in a loss of approximately 12.2% of GDP by 2050. However, if the temperature increase is limited to 2°C, the economic impact of climate change in Saudi Arabia could be reduced to 4.8% of GDP by 2050 and 0.78% by 2100.20  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways 

Though Saudi Arabia has made several public commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and has publicly supported the Paris Agreement, the execution of these promises has been limited. Under its Vision 2030 targets, Saudi Arabia aims to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2060. As part of this commitment, Saudi Arabia aims to have 50% of its electricity capacity from renewable sources by 2030.21 Saudi Arabia has also designed comprehensive energy efficiency programs, made substantial investments in clean hydrogen and renewable energy sources, and efforts to advance the development of cutting-edge carbon capture technology.22 Despite this, Saudi Arabia is making minimal efforts to actually decarbonize its economy, with emissions expected to rise significantly by 2030 as Aramco plans to increase oil production.23 While announcing ambitious renewable energy targets, little progress has been made over the past decade, in fact, the government is undermining global efforts to phase out fossil fuels by promoting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, which serve as a justification for expanding its oil industry. An investigation by the Centre for Climate Reporting (CCR) reveals that, privately, Saudi Arabia is working to ensure that emerging economies in Africa and Asia become significantly more reliant on oil. The Oil Demand Sustainability Program (OSP) is a large-scale government initiative comprising dozens of projects designed to promote a high-carbon, fossil fuel-dependent development model in these regions. This includes detailed plans to significantly increase the number of gasoline and diesel-fueled vehicles and to boost jet fuel sales through expanded air travel.24

Necessary Changes

To effectively tackle its climate vulnerability, Saudi Arabia must at once invest in the infrastructure needed to mitigate the impacts of extreme climate events and address critical issues related to human rights, corruption, and its backing of conflicts in the region. For example, by 2025, Saudi Arabia aims to establish a desalination capacity of 8.5 million cubic meters per day, which would meet the daily water requirements of approximately 34 million households, a figure four times greater than the current number of households in the country. Yet, attaining this desalination capacity will require substantial multi-billion-dollar investments over an extended period, costs made necessary by climate-induced scarcity.25 At the same time, the ecological impacts of airstrikes and the use of biological weapons such as white phosphorus— which Saudi Arabia has been known to use in Yemen,26 are profound, causing widespread environmental degradation and long-term health consequences for its victims and producers. These activities not only devastate the health of its targets, but also contribute to air and soil pollution, which exacerbate the country’s climate challenges.27 War-mongering destabilizes the already fragile region, leading to a neglect of environmental concerns and diverting resources away from needed sustainability efforts. To mitigate these impacts, Saudi Arabia and its regional and international community must enforce stringent human rights protections –including protections for its especially vulnerable and marginalized and exploited migrant worker populations–, establish transparent governance to combat corruption, and adopt a peace-oriented foreign policy. By prioritizing ecological restoration and refraining from actions that cause environmental harm, the Kingdom can better align its strategies with global climate goals and ensure a more stable and environmentally just future.