Introduction to São Tomé & Príncipe

Located off the coast of Central-West Africa, São Tomé & Príncipe is a two-island nation in the Gulf of Guinea. With a population of  just over 200,000 people, it is the second-smallest and second-least populous African country, with 73% of its inhabitants residing in urban areas.1 São Tomé & Príncipe grapples with socioeconomic fragility attributed to heightened poverty levels, income inequality (as reflected by a Gini index of 40.7)2 , and limited employment prospects. As of 2017, up to 45% of the population lives on less than $3.65 per day (PPP adjusted). With a GDP per capita of approximately $2,386 USD3 , the economic landscape of São Tomé & Príncipe is intricately linked with its vulnerability to climate change. These islands present a humid tropical climate, with abundant rains throughout the year, often developing into storm surges and torrential rains. Since the 19th century, São Tomé and Príncipe's economy has been primarily reliant on plantation agriculture and fisheries, employing 20% of the workforce.4 At the time of gaining independence, the vast majority of cultivated land was under the ownership of Portuguese-owned plantations. Following independence, these plantations came under the control of various state-owned agricultural enterprises. Cocoa stands as the primary export, constituting around 95% of total agricultural exports, alongside copra, palm products, and coffee5 , additionally shaping the nation's susceptibility to climate change impacts. This sector of the economy employs approximately 40% of the rural population. Over the past decade, STP’s economy has made a shift towards travel and tourism, where in 2019, the sector contributed 14.7 percent to the national GDP.6 However, major tourist destinations in Africa have already shown signs of negative climatic impacts, including rising temperatures, coral bleaching, flooding, and extreme weather events.7   This vulnerability is not merely environmental but often exacerbated by São Tomé & Príncipe's political economy and geopolitical vulnerabilities. Reminiscent of its history of international extraction, STP grapples with deforestation and illegal logging; soil erosion and exhaustion; inadequate sewage treatment in cities; and the state-wide lack of biodiversity preservation. 
 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

São Tomé & Príncipe's vulnerability to climate disaster is largely attributed to its geography. Both islands are coastal zones with vast slopes from extinct volcanoes, a factor that tends to aggravate soil degradation and coastal erosion.8 In December 2021, the government declared a state of disaster following a severe storm that struck the archipelago, resulting in extreme flooding and the heaviest rainfall seen in over 30 years9 , and displacing 500 residents.10  São Tomé & Príncipe's coastal communities witness flooding up to 10 times a year and yearly landslides, causing significant damages to homes and livelihood assets.10 In March 2023,  severe rain caused11 landslides/rockslides and left 2 residences partially destroyed.12 Recent hurricanes and floods have ravaged infrastructure and agriculture, with several regions of the islands becoming further entrenched in cycles of poverty and vulnerability. The communities of Neves, Ribeira Afonso, Malanza, Santa Catarina, and Sundy, situated in the proximity of flood-prone river deltas on Principe Island, are historically underprotected regions to climate upheaval.13 These settlements remain vulnerable to overlapping storm surges and torrential rains, and by 2050, coastal communities are anticipated to confront significant repercussions as projections suggest a rise of around 30 cm in average sea levels and a 20% intensification in rainfall events.10 In São Tomé & Príncipe, the climate crisis exacerbates vulnerabilities rooted in colonial legacies and economic disparities that make the small collection islands increasingly at risk. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

São Tomé & Príncipe is tasked with navigating layered threats, most notably the climate crisis and the surging costs of fuel and food. Its reliance on agriculture makes it acutely susceptible to climate shocks. The top exports of Sao Tome and Principe are cocoa beans ($13.2M), palm oil ($7.15M), comprising approximately 68% of the nations total export revenue.14 Despite the prominence of export crops, domestic food-crop production falls short of meeting local consumption demands, leading to wide-spread food insecurity and heavy reliance on imports for sustenance. Even with its rich soil and ample rainfall, the islands struggle with food scarcity. 71% of women live below the poverty line, with over one-fifth suffering from food insecurity.15 As of 1997, it was estimated that around 90% of the country's food requirements were fulfilled through imports.16 This dependence on international food goods paired with the islands’ general  lack of flood-resistant agricultural diversity only exacerbates vulnerability to climate shocks, and exemplifies the need for regional food sovereignty.17 The recurring floods, rising sea levels, and extreme weather patterns pose considerable threat to the islands, including such vital sectors as agriculture and fisheries, impacting nearly 20% of the country's workforce. Between December 2021 and February 2022, the islands experienced severe weather events incurring costs estimated to cost $37.5 million—about 7% of the country’s GDP in 2022.18 Flood risk assessments project that by 2080, the losses attributed to buildings alone could amount to US$17.9 million/year, or 3.3% of the nation's GDP (2023).19 Already, climate-related infrastructure damages have contributed to an inflation rate that reached 17.9% in 2022, up from 8.1% in 2021.20 The expected yearly losses due to floods, on average, are projected to be 3.06% of its GDP in 2020, 4.16% in 2050, and 6.17% in 2080. This means that the overall flooding risk is projected to more than double in the next 60 years.20 This destabilization motivates rapid urbanization trends that have led to the growth of informal settlements, often in zones exposed to coastal flood hazards. Estimates from 2020 indicate that more than 85,000 residents (53% of the total urban population) already live in informal settlements across the country.10

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

São Tomé & Príncipe is one of few carbon-neutral nations in the world, yet like most Small Island Developing States (SIDS), it experiences many of the material consequences of climate change. In collaboration with the World Bank and several other coastal African nations, they have made considerable mitigation efforts. Since 2018, the West Africa Coastal Area Resilient Investment Project (WACA-ResIP) has provided support to several coastal nations to build climate resilience.21 WACA ResIP has established locally-facilitated patrols of trained volunteers aimed at enhancing the security of coastal villages and mitigating the risk of fatalities. These patrols are tasked with providing early warnings, identifying flood and landslide risks, and conducting maintenance activities to minimize vulnerabilities.22 Additionally, efforts have been made to disseminate knowledge on risk management during adverse weather conditions, fostering resilience through the exchange of expertise between senior and junior fisherpeople. In 2022, The Government of São Tomé and Príncipe, in partnership with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), launched a plan to develop a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts by increasing the quality and accessibility of climate information.23 To further address its vulnerability, STP has designed its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to focus on developing  renewable energy in the national grid, minimizing power grid losses, enhancing energy efficiency, and significantly cutting the transport sector's carbon emissions.24  The projected expenditure for implementing the NDC between 2020 and 2030, aiming to achieve a 27% reduction in emissions by 2030, is estimated at $150 million.25 However, building climate resilience also  necessitates confronting historical injustices and systemic inequalities that laid the foundation of the islands’ climate risk today.

Necessary Changes  

Over the past several decades, São Tomé & Príncipe has successfully implemented several national climate action campaigns. In collaboration with the UNDP, they strengthened national climate monitoring capabilities via satellite technology and implemented early warning systems to respond to climate shocks.26 In 2019, STP adopted  a Blue Economy Transition Strategy aimed at conserving biodiversity and coastal and marine ecosystems.27 Presently, it is in the process of formulating a national investment plan, pledging to significantly decrease the use of agrochemicals by 2030 as part of its revised NDC and Voluntary Land Degradation Neutrality objective.28 Additionally, as of 2024, the government has made several additional commitments to build climate resilience , including the installation of  solar panels to harness renewable energy, the creation of  an early warning system in three pilot communities and recruiting youth volunteers to convey messages to the community about preventing and responding to climate change and related crises.29
Although São Tomé & Príncipe has developed robust responses to the more apparent impacts of climate disasters, they have yet to design nor propose a plan to address climate-induced food insecurity and crop loss throughout the islands’ most vulnerable regions. Rising sea levels may make necessary more aggressive mitigation plans and a potential plan for relocation of communities closest to endangered shores.  A just transition requires amplifying the voices of marginalized communities and centering their needs in decision-making processes. This necessitates a holistic approach that addresses the intertwined challenges of climate change and poverty, underscoring the need for the government to build climate resilience through land and food access. However, the nation's vulnerabilities are not merely environmental but are deeply entrenched in its political economy and historical legacies of colonization and extraction from Portugal30 , the Netherlands and Belgium alike.31  International support must transcend traditional aid paradigms, recognizing and rectifying historical injustices and present climate injustices, and ongoing vulnerability built on this history.