Introduction to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is a country in the Caribbean consisting of the island of Saint Vincent and a trail of smaller islands a part of the Grenadines chain, and is considered to be a part of the Lesser Antilles island group.1 Its population of 100,616 is about 45% rural.2 The climate of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is tropical with a distinctive dry season from December to May and wet season from June to November. Because of its proximity to the equator and the surrounding Caribbean sea, it experiences high and relatively stable temperatures year-round. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has been facing increasing average temperatures and a variable pattern of precipitation that are set to worsen throughout the century, and a forecasted rise in sea level resulting from the combined effects of ocean warming and changing ocean currents as well as vertical land motion.3 The GDP of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is $1.16 billion USD,2 with the service-based sector comprising about two-thirds of the Vincentian economy. Much like neighboring Grenada, recent GDP growth within Saint Vincent and the Grenadines can be attributed to the expansion of the service-based sector, with an emphasis on increased tourism, which has lessened previous dependency on the island’s agricultural sector.4 Limited French settlement in the 18th century was predated by the formation of the “Black Carib” ethnic group, formed from interaction between the Indigenous Carib people and Africans escaping enslavement in the 17th century. However, in 1783, the colony was ceded to the British, with a conquest declared against the rebelling Indigenous Caribs into the 19th century. The British introduced the plantation-style economy, created and maintained by mass slave labor. Although Saint Vincent and the Grenadines gained independence in 1979, it continues to function today as a constitutional monarchy within the British Commonwealth.5

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and are already experiencing increased temperatures, fluctuations in precipitation patterns and sustained periods of dryness.3 Average peak seasonal temperatures have reached a high in 1991-2020 of 30 degrees Celsius, while observed seasonal precipitation has sporadically reached new seasonal peaks throughout the century, yet are still projected to decrease through to 2100.6 In addition to worsening high temperatures, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is now facing a new increased susceptibility to hurricanes and other extreme weather events. The islands have not historically been susceptible to hurricanes, especially compared to other Caribbean islands. However, rising sea temperatures as well as variable climatic patterns have brought a new vulnerability to tropical storms, and increased hurricane activity in the region has been significant since Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Emily (2005), just 10 months apart from each other, highlighting an increase of frequency. A total of 8 disaster events have been reported since 2008, including  the category 5 Hurricane Beryl in 2024, demonstrating the increase in frequency and destructiveness of these storm events. 

Hurricanes can spur flooding, which worsens destruction to infrastructure and communities, displacing vulnerable populations. Data available shows that since 2008, 5,200 people have been displaced within Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, with storms and flooding displacing: 100 people in 2010;  2,300 people in 2013; 580 people in 2016; 20 people in 2017; 230 people in 2019; 150 people in 2023; and 1,800 people in 2024, as a result of Hurricane Beryl.7 In total, 36% of the population (about 40,000 people) have been potentially affected by Hurricane Beryl. The hurricane caused the most extensive damage within the southern Grenadines islands of Union, Mayreau, and Canouan, where 90-100% of homes were affected, with 1,021 people in emergency shelters as a result. Damages and loss are compounded in rural areas, where access to food, water, and electricity are already variable. While there is limited information on specific communities in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines that experience unique vulnerability to displacement events, existing socio-political and socio-economic marginalization and poverty can harm the adaptive and resilience capacities of individuals, families, and communities, especially within an increasingly service-based economic model, which relies on the maintenance of infrastructure to attract foreign tourism.8

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is $1.16 billion USD, or about $11,501 USD per capita.9 Prior to 2024’s Hurricane Beryl, the country has avoided category 3+ storms since 1900– damages and losses for this time period are estimated to compile to over $450 million USD. 2024’s Hurricane Beryl alone brought about economic damages totalling to an estimated $230.6 million USD, about 20% of the Vincentian GDP. Residential damages comprised $79.1 million of this figure; non-residential commercial and industrial damages comprised $79.8 million of this figure; and infrastructural and agricultural damages comprised $71.7 million of this figure. Calculated damages to the tourism sector specifically total to $49.9 million nationally, with the southern Grenadines islands facing the brunt of the damages and subsequent costs.10 Much of the costs sustained by the service-based tourism industry reflect the loss of potential business, and increased hurricane activity and floods and drought due to variating precipitation patterns are slated to worsen as climate hazards do. 

Vulnerability across the nation is reflected in geographical location, with vulnerability variating drastically based on where you live. Within the Northern Grenadines, 24% of the population is considered vulnerable while 76% of the population is considered not vulnerable (metrics are relative based on nation-specific socioeconomic class and status as well as potential exposure to destructive storm events). Within the Southern Grenadines, 52% of the population is considered vulnerable while 48% is considered non-vulnerable. A lack of urbanization and an overly tourist-reliant economic model can compound the vulnerability of rurality and a lack of access to resources can be attributed to this discrepancy. 

Disasters impact the poor and vulnerable more severely, with gender-based marginalization and mental health challenges compounding upon existing vulnerabilities and shaping unique vulnerabilities to climate change. Higher maternal mortality rates of 62 per 100,000 women highlight healthcare gaps that only worsen when under the strain of disaster, and the Vincentian labor force participation for women is about 54.6 %, as compared to 73.1% of men. The Vincentian tourism industry employs a significant number of women, and the informal sector is dominated by about 80% women. These industries are especially susceptible during natural disasters, meaning the effects of Hurricane Beryl will be felt disproportionately amongst Vincentian women and female-headed households.10

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has committed to an economy-wide reduction target of 22% by 2050, as communicated to the UNFCCC  by its NDC in 2016.11 Other aspects of the Vincentian NDC highlight the understanding between climate resilience and addressing social inequities. As of 2024, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines intends to mitigate current challenges by adopting the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) building code, which monitors and ensures climate-resilient infrastructure is designed and built.10 This would address the destruction of homes and infrastructure, potentially decreasing displacement by increasing resiliency and resistance to destruction. These investments have the support of  financial projections, with every $1 USD invested returning $6 USD in savings.10 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines also intends to address emissions from the energy and transport sectors, which comprise 68% of the country’s GHG contributions. Shifting towards renewable energy sources, such as geothermal energy, and increasing energy efficiency by decreasing national consumption are identified changes for the energy sector; and improved public transportation and lower emission vehicles are identified changes for the transportation sector. However, the latter identified changes can only be clearly achieved through international financial support.12  

Importantly, these emission targets were first identified as goals to be achieved by 2025, but climate destruction has pushed these urgent measures to 2050. Adaptation planning by the Vincentian government has also begun, with the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), the largest project within the country, proposing to enhance climate risk management by: strengthening community resilience in the face of hazards; increasing institutional capacity to undertake risk management; strengthening knowledge and awareness; preparing comprehensive hazard maps for public institutions and communities to enhance climate education; designing and implementing gender sensitive risk management and initiatives; and collaborating with communities at all levels to plan stakeholder-informed climate and disaster risk management methods. The PPCR plans to accomplish these goals through four components: assessing risk assessment and reduction; collecting data, conducting analysis, and undertaking data management; strengthening existing policy, legal, and institutional frameworks to highlight disaster and risk management strategy implementation; and design and implement a public education and capacity-building program.12

Necessary Changes

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines already has an NDC and a post-disaster damage estimation report that identifies mitigation and adaptation goals and pathways. Now, it is necessary for the country and international community to follow through urgently on the implementation, efficacy, and funding of planned projects and future strategies. Internally, the Vincentian government has already identified tangible methods of decreasing emissions from the energy and transportation sectors, so following through on these reduction goals of cutting energy consumption and decreasing pollutive methods of transportation is crucial. The Vincentian government has also identified the disproportionate vulnerability women can face regarding natural disasters, and embedded their NDC and emissions goals with a just understanding of how disasters can amplify existing social vulnerabilities and decrease resilience. However, vulnerability can also compound upon other factors outside of gender, including rurality and geographical location. A gap that the Vincentian government should address can be identified in the amplified manifestation of Hurricane Beryl’s damages throughout the southern Grenadines islands and farther away from the capital of Kingstown. Ensuring resilience-planning, public information campaigns, and post-disaster aid is distributed across this historical geographical area of higher risk is crucial in bolstering the climate adaptive capacity of both the island of St. Vincent and the Grenadines islands. 

Internationally, financial support–in the form of grants and debt cancellation not loans–must be delivered to the Vincentian government and people in order to finance these goals with increased urgency. In an address to the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, in 2024, the Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines outlined the challenges the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) globally face due to climate change, and stressed the responsibility developed countries have regarding financing climate change due to their historical responsibility for and contributions to anthropogenic climate change as well as their frugality and lack of urgency regarding it.13 Internationally-backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground to ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition, and also help bolster the participation of directly impacted local communities in decision-making. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and its ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation goals can also be sustained and expanded.