Rwanda: A Brief Introduction

Rwanda is a landlocked country in Eastern Africa. Its population of 13.5 million1 is about 82% rural.2 Rwanda has a tropical climate with four climate regions: the dry, hot eastern plains; the temperate central plateau; the humid, mountainous highlands (including the Congo-Nile Ridge and volcanic chains of Birunga); and the tropical regions around Lake Kivu.3 Various parts of the country feel the effects of the climate crisis differently. For example, the mountainous west has to deal with erosion, the central north and south face floods, and the east and southeast must deal with desertification and drought.4 Additionally, most of the Rwandan economy is agricultural, constituting 70% of the workforce5 and 24.1% of the country’s GDP.6 Since the Rwandan genocide of 1994, a result of ethnic hierarchies created during Belgian colonialism, the Rwandan government has primarily focused on rebuilding and stimulating economic growth and prosperity.  As the climate crisis worsens, the Rwandan government is striving to develop a more robust and climate resilient economy while also addressing the legacies and inequalities caused by the 1994 genocide.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Rwanda is ranked 124 out of 182 countries in terms of climate vulnerability,7 due to its susceptibility to droughts, floods, earthquakes, landslides, storms, wildfire, diseases, and epidemics.8 The first nine months of 2022 saw 150 people killed and 300 injured due to climate-related disasters like floods, landslides, heavy wind, and rainstorms.9 Rwanda’s northern and western regions experienced heavy floods and landslides as recently as May 2023, with 130 casualties and many more displaced.10 In 2021, 14,960 Rwandans were displaced because of climate-related disasters, and 13.3k were displaced due to a devastating earthquake.11 Since a majority of the country is rural, these effects are felt very strongly by most of the population. Additionally, women and the elderly are most vulnerable to such climate events since they have increased workloads, limited access to resources, and lower incomes.12 Climate disasters in Rwanda exacerbate existing gender inequalities, increase gender violence, and widen socioeconomic gaps between men and women (particularly in education), so addressing gender justice is crucial to a truly climate-resilient Rwanda.13

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Rwanda has a GDP of $11.07 billion, making it one of Africa’s poorer nations.14 The climate crisis is expected to result in a loss of almost 1% of GDP each year by 2030, a calculation that represents a lower bound of costs as it does not include extreme events such as floods and earthquakes.15 Beginning in 1922, Rwanda was a colony of Belgium, which created a colonial legacy of ethnic divide between the Hutu and Tutsi groups, and which has shaped the trajectory of Rwanda’s economic development. For example, Rwanda gained independence in 1962 and the new government struggled to make economic progress, relying on agriculture and cash crops for profit. Yet, economic hardship created rising discontent within the country, leading to the Rwandan genocide against Tutsi peoples in 1994.16 After the genocide, the current regime has been rebuilding the nation, with a primary focus on agriculture since it has provided the fastest means of economic growth. Yet, with the agriculture sector employing over 70% of the working population, and with approximately 51% of Rwanda’s land area being agricultural, climate impacts threaten such progress due to threats to crop viability and harvesting.17 Additionally, the threat that climate events pose to agriculture also creates looming food insecurity for many rural Rwandans, due to land degradation, soil erosion, and the vulnerability of certain crops to rising temperatures and water stress.18 This will primarily impact the west and central south regions of Rwanda.

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Rwanda’s NDC focuses on a transition to a climate-resilient, low-carbon economy, with a strong services sector, and low poverty and unemployment. Their updated NDC includes a tangible goal for emissions reduction, pledging to a 38% decrease by 2030.19 Sectors targeted for mitigation and adaptation include water, agriculture, land and forestry, health, transportation, and mining.19 The UNDP is supplementing government programs, like the Rwandan Rural Settlement Programme (Imidugudu), with further technical and financial support, enabling existing infrastructure development programs to be enacted with climate resilience in mind.20 Regarding migration, the Rwandan government is struggling with where to place refugee camps as current camps are located in remote areas that are more susceptible to extreme weather events.21 Moving refugees between camps can be costly and disruptive so the government has currently reached an impasse. Additionally, Rwanda outlines a plan for their climate-resilient future in Rwanda's 2050 plan, emphasizing efforts to industrialize the country’s agricultural sector.22 Yet such rapid transformations may marginalize poorer, rural farmers and undercut more sustainable ways of diversifying the Rwandan economy.

Necessary Changes

Rwanda is a nation that is still healing and rebuilding from the 1994 genocide but they have shown extraordinary commitment to centering climate resilience in reconstruction efforts. Now, it is necessary for the international community to support the implementation, efficacy, and funding of planned projects and future strategies. While Rwanda's Vision 2050 plan centers industrialized and commercialized farming practices tied to global markets, the Rwandan Green Fund facilitates the creation of regional trade alliances and more sustainable development processes.23 Stimulating the Rwandan economy is necessary to enable the Rwandan government to cope with and fund programs that build climate resilience, yet–in line with the Rwandan Green Fund–such efforts must reduce harm to vulnerable communities and not further contribute to the climate crisis. Internationally-backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground to ensure that affected communities’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, Rwanda’s vision can be sustained and expanded.