The Philippines: A Brief Introduction

The Philippines is a country in Southeast Asia. Its population of 113.9 million is about 52% rural. The Philippines is an archipelago consisting of about 7,000 islands, containing various mountains, coastal plains, and lakes. The Philippines lies on the equator so its climate is humid, characterized by high temperatures and heavy rainfall, and it is susceptible to tropical cyclones and flooding as well as drought. The country faces southwest monsoons in the summer and northeast monsoons and tropical cyclones in the winter. Ethnic Filipinos (people of Austronesian descent who migrated during the Iron Age from Taiwan) consist of the Tagalog, Cebuano, Ilocano, Bicolano, Kapampangan, Maranao, Maguindanao, and Tausug peoples. Additionally, the Philippines has an indigenous population, the Aeta people, who now make up only 0.0003% of the population. Manufacturing (mining, pharmaceuticals, electronics, semiconductors, etc.) and agribusiness (processed fruits and vegetables, sugar plantation, biofuels, etc.) make up a majority of the Philippines’ GDP. Since 1565, the Philippines has been a colony of various countries– Spain, the US, and Japan. The Philippines gained its independence in 1946 through the Treaty of Manila. This colonial legacy remains a large player in Filipino politics and the climate crisis only further exacerbates these inequalities. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

The Philippines is ranked 85th out of 179 countries, making it the 94th most climate vulnerable country in the world. The Philippines is susceptible to tropical cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, landslides, and drought. The Philippines is ranked 2nd highest in the world for risk of cyclones, as it lies on the “typhoon belt” or the Ring of Fire, seeing about 19-20 cyclones annually. These cyclones create higher risk of flooding, something that is exacerbated by land-use change like urbanization and logging.  The climate crisis affects various marginalized communities in the Philippines more acutely than others. For example, the indigenous Aeta people rely on income from farming, which has become very seasonal and vulnerable to typhoons, drought, and heavy rains. Furthermore, the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption destroyed their village, land that has still not fully recovered. Women are also extremely vulnerable to climate change as Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 affected more than 14.1 million people, most of which were poor, rural women and girls. In 2020, 4.5 million people were displaced by volcanic activity and climate events including Typhoon Goni, and in 2021, 5.7 million people were displaced in the Philippines by climate events including Typhoon Rai (also known as Typhoon Odette in the Philippines). As recently as January 2023, heavy rains and flooding has resulted in 28 people dead, 211,000 people being displaced, and 1.3 million people affected in some way by the destruction of homes, infrastructure, crops, and boats. Additionally, climate-induced displacement is not the only threat to the Filipino people. In 2021,140,000 people were displaced due to conflict and 108,000 people remained displaced at the end of the year. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The Philippines has a GDP of $394.09 million. After their independence in 1946, the Philippines has attempted to assert democratic ideals but, due to corruption and military interests, the government has toggled between greater degrees of democracy and a repressive military dictatorship. The current administration, run by Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, has been extremely authoritarian, with he and his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte demonstrating a blatant disregard for human rights and political liberties, launching an intense crackdown on illegal drug use. Due to their extensive control of the government, Filipino climate policy will depend on whether climate action aligns with their interests. The climate crisis poses severe economic costs to the Philippines. Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 singlehandedly cost the Filipino agricultural industry and rural farmers $724 million dollars, losing 1.1 million tonnes of crops and destroying 600,000 hectares of farmland. Between 2013 and 2017, extreme climate events have cost the Philippines 0.3% of GDP. Without any climate action, the Philippine economy will suffer a 13.6% reduction in GDP by 2040. The agricultural industry will be hit the hardest, making up 15% of the country’s GDP and employing about one-third of the population. Effects include changes in carbon dioxide availability, impacts on water resource availability, soil erosion, changes in pest and disease profiles, the arrival of invasive species, and decline in arable areas due to the submergence of coastal lands and desertification. Additionally, women face many non-economic costs. In times of conflict and natural distasters, sexual abuse, trafficking, and prostitution increases. Rural women, due to their extensive time in the fields, also face higher risks of heat strokes, skin problems, and eye irritation. The entire country faces water scarcity in the coming future, as the Philippines has 1,900 cubic meters of water available per person, the second lowest water availability per year of the Southeast Asian countries and lower than the global average. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

The Philippines’ NDC centers around sustainable industrial development, poverty eradication and inclusive growth, energy security, and the transition towards a climate-resilient and low carbon economy. Their conditional goal is to reduce emissions by 70% in 2030 and unlike other countries, they have not established any unconditional goals. Sectors targeted for mitigation and adaptation include agriculture, water, social development, energy, health, and coastal zones. To mitigate damage caused by climate events, the Philippines has developed the Philippine Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation, which highlights eight sectors of climate mitigation (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal and marine zones, energy, forestry, health, infrastructure, and water) and clearly delegates policies associated with each sector to various government agencies. This plan emphasizes collaboration across agencies and poverty reduction as a key mitigation strategy. Regarding forced migration and resettlement, after Typhoon Haiyaan, the Filipino government struggled with coordinating logistics and finances associated with mass resettlement, instituting No-Build-Zone policies that only further threatened land of poor, vulnerable communities. Given the vulnerability of the Filipino agricultural industry, many projects have been enacted to facilitate a transition to more sustainable agricultural practices. For example, the UNDP has worked on introducing Alternative Wetting and Drying practices to rice cultivation and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Southeast Asia (CCAFS SEA) is publishing a list of strategies around how to implement sustainable technologies in farming.

Necessary Changes

As outlined above, the Philippines has made significant progress to the climate-resilient, low-carbon economy they outline in their NDC.  However, uncertain political will from the Marcos administration may threaten this progress. The Philippines has a short, vague NDC that refers to existing Filipino policy, and without the political will to continue enforcing it, further climate action will be stalled. Additionally, due to a lack of government capability and commitment, UN and international aid in human resources, technical training, and financial support is needed to institute a successful resettlement program for climate refugees from within the country. Finally, ongoing civil and political strife in the Philippines is creating conflict that also affects and displaces people at staggering amounts, something that must be addressed in order for climate solutions to be enacted. Against the backdrop of internal strife, Marcos has said that developed countries have a moral obligation “to support adaptation and mitigation efforts of the most vulnerable countries through technology transfer, capacity building, and climate financing, this to address loss and damage, and to achieve necessary breakthroughs for climate action at a global scale.”  Internationally-backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground and support their expansion through such measures. Collectively, the Philippines and international community alike must ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition, and also help bolster the participation of directly impacted local communities in decision-making. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, climate work in the Philippines can also be sustained and expanded.