Introduction to Pakistan

Pakistan, located in South Asia, is the fifth most populous country in the world with a population of 231.4 million.1 The country has a rural population of 63%2 and GDP per capita of $1,505, with more than 20% of the population living below the national poverty line.3 Pakistan largely has a hot desert climate near the coast in the south while in the northern uplands, the country experiences monsoon and mediterranean-influenced climates.4 In recent decades, the country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly floods, storms and extreme temperature. Currently, the country is recovering from the unprecedented and devastating floods of 2022 which submerged one third of the country.5 Pakistan’s economy is heavily dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, which employs 38% of the working population6 and contributes 22,7% to the GDP.7 The service sector, contributing 52.1% of the GDP8 , is dominated by key areas such as telecommunication, tourism, and information technology, while the textile industry, making up 58.9% of its export revenue9 , dominates the industrial sector. While Pakistan gained independence from the British empire in 1947, inherited colonial legacies continue to shape the country’s occupation of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Pakistan’s over-reliance on extractive industries and development models10 , as well as its heightened vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 15 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.11 The major climate hazards experienced by Pakistan are flood, extreme temperature, storm, and epidemic, which account for over 60% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.12 In addition to that, Pakistan also experiences high risk of landslides and droughts. Between 1980 and 2000, the country witnessed 12 separate years of flood with the number increasing to 16 between 2001 and 2020.13 Between 2008 and 2022, 107 disaster events were reported in Pakistan, amongst which floods displaced a staggering 23.6 million people.14 In 2022 alone, disastrous floods in Pakistan led to the death of 15,000 people, displaced 8 million across the country, and resulted in damages and losses of over $30.1 billion.15  In the same year, Pakistan experienced its highest recorded average temperature, contributing to intense heat waves which resulted in significant water and electricity scarcity, along with extensive crop losses.16 In addition to worsening the widespread poverty in Pakistan and destroying livelihoods, such climate change impacts are exacerbating the existing refugee crisis in the region, with Pakistan hosting over 3.7 million  refugees from conflict affected Afghanistan.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

With a GDP of US$ 348.26 billion17 , Pakistan is currently grappling with a dire economic crisis, marked by a soaring inflation rate of 36.4% in April 2023.18 This crisis is particularly impacting the country's vulnerable low-income population, who are still reeling from the disastrous consequences of the 2022 floods. The unprecedented floods incurred infrastructure damages amounting to $14.9 billion and caused economic losses totaling $15.2 billion, while the estimated minimum requirements for recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction stood at $16.3 billion.19 By 2050, climate change impacts, combined with environmental degradation and air pollution, are projected to decrease Pakistan’s GDP by 18% to 20%.20 Due to sea level rise and increased intensity of cyclones and storms, the country’s coastal areas, including the densely populated former capital of Karachi and the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan, are at extreme risk of flooding, saltwater intrusion and severe infrastructure damage. In addition to damages in the agriculture sector caused by flooding, climate change is increasing uncertainty in crop seasons while sea intrusion is significantly decreasing productive land. About 8 to 10% of Pakistan’s agricultural productivity is estimated to decrease by 2040 due to climate change impacts.21 Furthermore, the frequency and severity of deadly heat waves in Pakistan is expected to increase in the future, particularly devastating 56% of its urban population22 dwelling in congested informal settlements without access to basic services and amenities.  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Pakistan, constituting 2.93 percent of the world's population, is responsible for less than 0.30 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.23 Nevertheless, Pakistan shoulders a substantial weight of the catastrophic consequences brought about by climate change, exhibiting in the the form of increased extreme weather events. Despite its comparatively low emissions, Pakistan pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 15 percent of its projected greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and an additional 35 percent with substantial international support.24 Recognizing the significance of ecosystem restoration to building climate resilience, Pakistan implemented the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP) and the Protected Areas Initiative (PAI). In addition to ecosystem restoration, these programs have created livelihood opportunities for vulnerable populations. With over 70% of Pakistan’s energy supply coming from fossil fuels25 , Pakistan aims to derive 60% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.26 Simultaneously, Pakistan plans to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, with the objective of having EVs comprise 30% of the total vehicles on the road.27

Necessary Changes

Pakistan's efforts in prioritizing renewable resources and advancing climate mitigation initiatives underscore its commitment towards attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality. Despite Pakistan's minimal contribution to the climate crisis, the country is disproportionately bearing the brunt of its consequences. The international community must acknowledge this and provide substantial support to Pakistan to ensure a just transition that is inclusive of marginalized, low-income, and overburdened communities. The anticipated effects of climate change are projected to intensify the hardships faced by those residing in informal settlements, particularly due to their precarious locations, inadequate infrastructure, limited resources, and high levels of poverty. The global community needs to support Pakistan in building the climate resilience of its at-risk communities living in slums by providing financial assistance in the form of grants and not loans, as well as technical expertise, and capacity-building opportunities. Furthermore, the government of Pakistan needs to integrate climate resilience considerations into refugee response and resettlement programs in order to protect vulnerable populations fleeing war and conflict, and enhance their ability to adapt to the adverse consequences of climate change.