Introduction to Oman

Oman is a country located on the southeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula. Its population of approximately 4.6 million (2023)1 is about 88% urban.2 Oman has an arid desert climate with extremely hot summers and mild winters. The country's geography includes vast deserts, mountain ranges, and a lengthy coastline along the Arabian Sea. Historically, Oman has experienced significant climatic events such as tropical cyclones, periodic droughts, and summer winds which often generate large sand and dust storms throughout the region. Ranked as the fifth most water-stressed country in the world,3 Oman has limited natural freshwater resources and faces increasing soil salinity. Its natural resources consist of copper, limestone, and gypsum, and the economy is heavily reliant on the oil and gas sector,4 which contributes around 70% to its GDP of 108 billion USD.5 In 2021, there were approximately 1.4 million expatriate workers in Oman, accounting for 80 percent of total employment,6 and 57.6% of the total population.7 The region’s history of rapid fossil fuel-driven modernization, urbanization, and largely migrant labor force at once exacerbates the climate crisis and contextualizes the intensified climate impacts it faces.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

While climate challenges in the region are persistent, Oman is well-positioned to adapt. Oman is the 97th most vulnerable country and the 58th most ready country as ranked by the ND-GAIN Country Index.8 One of the most significant concerns in the region is rising temperatures, which are already well above the global average, with extreme heat waves exceeding 50 degrees Celsius in 2021 in Oman, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Further, the Gulf region is on track to become 4 degrees warmer by 2050, far surpassing the 1.5-degree limit needed to prevent global ecological collapse. Under business-as-usual emission patterns, much of Oman and its surrounding territories are expected to become uninhabitable by the end of the century.9 Juxtaposing this severe heat, Oman is also tasked with navigating extreme rainfall. Coastal regions and low-lying areas are particularly susceptible to the impacts of rising sea levels and tropical cyclones, with incidents of flash floods across Oman increasing in recent decades. Between 2008 and 2015, 350 internal displacements attributed to storms and floods were reported, a figure that increased exponentially between 2016 and 2023 to 21,285 displacements.10 An extreme rainfall event in April of 2024 caused widespread flooding that displaced over 1200 residents and took the lives of at least 20 people.11

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The political economy of Oman is characterized by its dependence on oil revenues and efforts to diversify through sectors like tourism and fisheries. Climate change undermines these diversification efforts by increasing the vulnerability of key economic sectors to extreme weather events. Further, tropical storms have caused Oman losses in the billions. In 2018, Cyclone Mekunu hit the coastal regions, creating damages amounting to $1.5 billion.12 In 2007, Cyclone Gonu caused $4 billion in damage and at least 49 deaths, prior to which only two similar cyclones struck the coast of Oman in the last 1200 years (in 865 and 1890).13 Al-Batinah North, a region responsible for much of Oman’s efforts to pivot away from an oil-dependent economic structure, is considered the most exposed of the coastal governorates to the tropical storms caused by climate change. As this governorate accounts for nearly 20% of Oman’s non-oil GDP,14 this poses a unique threat to one of the country’s ecological and economic cornerstones.15 Water scarcity in the region also poses high economic costs, with the construction of a single desalination plant in Al Ghubrah costing the Omani government over $215 million USD.16

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Oman is actively addressing climate change through various public policies, focusing particularly on the transition to clean energy. The Oman Vision 204017 is a key policy framework that outlines the Omani government’s commitment to establishing climate resilience. This framework is centered on four main goals: building a competitive economy, fostering, and ensuring responsible state governance, and promoting environmental sustainability. The fourth goal prioritizes a low-carbon economy, the development of renewable energy sources and enhancing energy efficiency. The vision sets ambitious targets for renewable energy, aiming to increase its share from 0% in 2015 to 20% by 2030, and further to 35-39% by 2040.18 The National Energy Strategy, released in 2020, provides a detailed roadmap for these transitions, with specific goals of achieving 20% renewables in total electricity generation and improving efficiency at gas-fired plants to 63% by 2027, up from 55% in 2020. Additionally, Oman intends to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, in line with Paris Agreement objectives.19

Necessary Changes

Oman and its neighbors harbor the resources and economic foundation to establish lasting climate resilience and mitigation pathways throughout the region, as well as the lived impacts of the climate crisis that could underscore and motivate urgent action from the Omani government. Despite its existing efforts, Oman continues to heavily rely on fossil fuels for its energy needs and economic output.20 This reliance is underscored by the recent development of a new diesel production refinery, the Duqm refinery in February 2024, highlighting the ongoing role of fossil fuels in Oman’s nation-building strategy.21 Although the country has set ambitious carbon neutrality goals, it has not yet made a commitment to phasing out fossil fuel production, indicating a complex and nonviable balancing act between economic growth rotted in ecological degradation and environmental sustainability.  In addition to these ecological concerns, Oman, alongside its neighbors Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – in the Gulf region, must address intersecting climate and labor rights concerns. Migrant workers throughout the region are playing an indispensable role in addressing extreme heat in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, yet these governments are failing to protect these essential workers from dangers related to climate change.22 To address these failings, it is critical that the Omani government establish comprehensive justice pathways for low-income expatriate workers, which encompass enhanced living and working conditions, as well as equitable access to resources for climate adaptation. A critical first step for Oman involves dismantling the oppressive kafala system—a framework that gives employers excessive and exploitative control over their employees.23 Abolishing this system is vital not only for safeguarding labor rights but also for effectively addressing the intertwined challenges of labor exploitation and climate vulnerabilities in the region. Furthermore, Oman must heed internationally-supported calls for the protection and advancement of workers' rights. By empowering workers and integrating their perspectives, Oman can foster a more just and resilient society in the face of the evolving climate crisis.