Introduction to Nigeria

Nigeria, the seventh largest country in the world by population and located in West Africa, has a population of 218.5 million people1 , of which 46% is rural.2  Nigeria primarily has a tropical savanna climate, with some hot semi-arid regions in the north, and tropical savanna regions in the south.3 In recent decades, the country has been witnessing increasingly severe climate hazards, particularly floods, storms and epidemics. Nigeria has the largest economy in the African continent, and the country is among the world’s top five exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG).4 The West African nation relies heavily on the oil and gas industry, with the sector contributing 7.4% of the GDP, 85% of the government revenue, and over 90% of the country’s total export.5 The agriculture sector, employing 35% of the working population6 and contributing 23.7% of the GDP7 , is also critical for the economy but is coming increasingly under threat due to the adverse impacts of climate change. Nigeria’s vulnerability to the climate crisis is exacerbated by its pervasive poverty and dependence on extractive export-oriented industries, as well as the enduring and deeply ingrained ethno-religious conflict with roots in its colonial history. In 1914, British colonizers merged two disparate territories to form Nigeria and followed up with divide-and-rule policies that continue to influence today’s divisions along ethno-religious lines and the uneven experience of the climate crisis in the country.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Nigeria is moderately vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 73 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.8 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are floods, storms and epidemics, which account for over 76% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.9 Between 1980 and 2000, Nigeria experienced 6 separate years of flood with the number increasing to a staggering 18 between 2001 and 2020.10 In 2012 alone, over 7 million Nigerians were affected by flood with 3.9 million people displaced. And most recently in 2022, the deadliest flood on record in Nigeria’s history struck the country displacing 1.5 million people.11 The climate crisis made the heavy rain responsible for this devastating flooding about 80 times more likely. Between 2008 and 2022, 102 disaster events were reported in Nigeria, amongst which floods displaced 8.5 million people.12 Beyond climate related disasters, violence and conflict has displaced 4.6 million Nigerians13 , and climate impacts in the form of desertification in the north and sea level rise in the south threaten to exacerbate existing tensions, aggravate resource scarcity, and intensify competition for land, water, and other essential resources.14

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

With a GDP of 477.39 billion, Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa but faces significant challenges of inequality and poverty.15 Over 40% of Nigeria’s population lives below the national poverty line16 and about 49% of the country’s urban population live in informal settlements.17 This pervasive economic disparity within Nigeria significantly influences the way climate impacts are experienced and endured throughout the country. Most of the over 100 informal settlements in Nigeria’s capital city of Lagos is concentrated in its coastal zone, where climate vulnerability is exacerbated by the lack of adequate infrastructure like drainage systems and sturdy housing.18 The climate crisis is also impacting the livelihoods of Nigeria’s smallholder farmers, constituting over 80% of the farming community and contributing around 90% to local agricultural production.19 Climate hazards like floods, droughts, and rising temperatures are resulting in severe crop and livestock losses, and intensifying food insecurity, hunger, and persistent poverty in the region.20 If adaptation measures are not urgently and adequately implemented, the West African nation could face substantial economic losses from climate-related disasters. It is estimated that by 2050, the cost of the crisis could range between 6 percent and 9 percent of Nigeria’s GDP, equivalent to a staggering amount of USD 100 billion to USD 450 billion.21

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Nigeria, constituting 2.7 percent of the world's population, is responsible for less than 0.25 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.22 Nigeria pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 20 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and 47 percent with substantial international support.23 In its Nationally Determined Contribution, the priority sectors for adaptation and mitigation includes  agriculture, transportation, energy, and water. The reduction of kerosene use, expansion of bus rapid transit, and reduction of agriculture byproduct burning are key components of Nigeria's climate action plan. Through these measures, Nigeria aims to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, enhance sustainable agriculture practices, and protect and restore vital forest ecosystems. In order to tackle soil erosion, advance water conservation, and promote sustainable farming among other things, Nigeria implemented the Erosion and Watershed Management Project, with 23 states adopting measures for inclusive and adaptive development based on community participation, and creating 52,000 jobs as well as benefiting over 12 million people.24 Furthermore, given Nigeria’s large hydrocarbon industry, climate and labor organizations are actively promoting just transition frameworks to prevent disproportionate socio-economic impact on the most at-risk communities.25

Necessary Changes

Nigeria's consistent implementation of mitigation and adaptation efforts demonstrate its commitment to persistently and vigorously pursue existing policy measures that form part of its unconditional pledge. Nevertheless, further actions are required, and it is crucial for the international community to provide support to Nigeria in strengthening its resilience and adaptive capacity. As urbanization in Nigeria accelerates, vulnerability to extreme climate change will intensify due to the influx of people into capital cities and the expansion of cities into coastal areas, exposing them to heightened coastal flood risks.26 To address this, promoting planned human settlements and robust urban infrastructure development is crucial. In addition to designing and implementing policy interventions to protect lives and properties in vulnerable areas, increased funding needs to be made available for climate-related projects and interventions. With the world’s largest absolute electricity deficit, 90 million people in Nigeria are not connected to electricity.27 Even though the country is a major oil and gas producer, the majority of these resources are exported rather than being utilized for domestic energy consumption. Nigeria stands at a critical juncture where it must divest from its extractive and carbon-intensive fossil fuel industry, expedite the adoption of renewables, and expand energy access. At the same time, the socio-economic impact on oil and gas workers will need to be addressed by establishing retraining and reskilling programs as well as social safety nets. The escalating severity of climate impacts serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to enhance Nigeria's climate resilience and strengthen the adaptive capacity of its most vulnerable populations.