Introduction to Nepal

Nepal, a landlocked country in South Asia, has a population of 30.5 million people1 , of which 79% is rural.2 Nepal’s climate zones vary by geography, with monsoon influenced humid tropical and oceanic climate in the South and Southwest, while subarctic climate in the Northern regions.3 The country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly floods, extreme temperature, epidemics, and landslides. Agriculture is the mainstay of the Nepalese economy, employing over 60% of the working population4 and contributing around 21.1% of the country's GDP.5 The service sector contributes the largest share of GDP at 52.3% and is diversified across a range of industries with tourism being an important one.6 In Nepal, forests cover about 44% of the country’s land area and play a crucial role as an important carbon sink.7 The country relies extensively on its water resources for meeting its energy demands, with hydropower plants contributing to more than 96% of the country's total electricity generation capacity. However, due to climate change, pollution, and rapid urbanization, the country is increasingly facing water stress. Nepal is highly prone to both weather-related and geophysical hazards and experiences extreme as well as gradual climate risks.  

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 12 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.8 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are floods, landslides, and epidemics, with floods accounting for about 40% of the annual natural hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.9 Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 11 separate years of flood with the number increasing to 15 between 2001 and 2020.10 In 2017 alone, floods affected over 1.7 million people in Nepal. Earthquakes are a major natural hazard in Nepal with 2.6 million Nepalese internally displaced as a result of the devastating earthquake of 2015.11 Adding to the already significant burden of displacement caused by earthquakes, floods have forced nearly a million Nepalese to be internally displaced.12 In late 2021, Nepal experienced unusually heavy rainfall which resulted in widespread floods and landslides, and claimed more than 100 lives.13 Furthermore, the torrential downpours inflicted substantial damage on Nepal's crucial rice paddy crops, estimated at US$50 million.14 This loss has significant consequences not only for the livelihoods of farmers but also for the nation's overall food security and economy. The most vulnerable communities, who heavily rely on agriculture for sustenance and income, are bearing the brunt of this devastation.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Nepal is US$ 40.83 billion15 , with more than 17 percent of its population being multidimensionally poor.16 In Nepal, climate variability has emerged as a significant catalyst for food insecurity and poverty, exerting diverse impacts across different regions. The southern areas are witnessing an upsurge in flooding events and heat stress, while the northern regions grapple with escalating landslides, water stress, and the overflow of glacial lakes. These climate-induced challenges are exacerbating vulnerabilities, further marginalizing already disadvantaged communities.17 The impact of river flooding caused by climate change in Nepal is projected to undergo a significant increase, with the number of individuals affected annually expected to rise from 157,000 in 2010 to 350,000 in 2030.18 The projected increase in both the frequency and severity of floods in Nepal poses a grave threat to the 40% of the urban population19 residing in congested slums without access to basic services and amenities. Furthermore, those living in Nepal’s remote and underserved mountainous regions, often lacking access to robust infrastructure and resources, also face heightened challenges in coping with the aftermath of the floods and landslides. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Nepal, constituting 0.38 percent of the world's population, is responsible for only 0.01% percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.20 Nepal pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with a commitment to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2045 and net-negative by 2050.21 Nepal's climate policies are deemed compatible with the 1.5°C target in comparison to its fair share contribution, implying that Nepal's actions align with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.22 For adaptation and mitigation efforts, Nepal is prioritizing the following sectors: energy; industrial processes and product use; and agriculture, forestry, and other land use.23 In 1980, the government of Nepal embarked on a groundbreaking initiative by introducing a progressive policy of community forest management. This approach has yielded remarkable results, contributing to a significant rise in the country's forest cover from 26% in 1992 to an impressive 46% in 2016.24 Currently, more than 22,000 community-forest user groups manage approximately 34% of Nepal's forests, showcasing the transformative power of community participation in sustainable forest conservation.25

Necessary Changes

Nepal is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. International cooperation and financial support are now critical for supporting Nepal in combating climate variability and its associated impacts. Developed nations and international organizations must fulfill their commitments to provide climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building support to assist vulnerable countries like Nepal in their adaptation and mitigation efforts. Particularly, the global community needs to support Nepal in implementing a strong disaster risk management program, enabling the country to proactively prevent, mitigate, and respond effectively to climate disasters. The impending consequences of climate change are anticipated to amplify the difficulties faced by particularly at-risk communities living in Nepal’s informal urban settlements as well as in remote, mountainous regions, compounding their existing challenges and vulnerabilities. To address this crisis, it is imperative for Nepal to prioritize comprehensive measures that encompass both short-term and long-term strategies, including investments in resilient infrastructure, improved urban planning, and the implementation of robust flood management systems. Additionally, efforts should be directed towards enhancing the living conditions in underserved areas, providing access to basic services, upgrading housing structures, and promoting community resilience through education and awareness programs.