Morocco: A Brief Introduction

Morocco is a coastal country located in Northwestern Africa, with a population of 37 million people,1 of which 36% is rural.2 Morocco's climate varies from a Mediterranean climate in coastal areas to an arid desert climate in the Sahara Desert.3 Agriculture is a significant component of the economy, contributing 12% to the country’s GDP4 and employing 35% of the country’s working population.5 Water scarcity, as a result of drought, increased temperature, and changing rainfall patterns, is posing significant challenges to Morocco’s agriculture, rural livelihoods, urban centers, and ecosystems. In addition to agriculture, Morocco’s economy is dominated by mining and tourism. With more than 70% of the world’s phosphate rock reserves, Morocco is one of the largest producers of the chemical compound critical for global agricultural production.6 Legacies of colonial era land regulations and exploitative practices focused on expropriating land for the benefits of European settlers and business interest lay behind Morocco’s occupation of resource-rich Western Sahara, dependence on extractive industries, and increased vulnerability to the climate crisis.7  

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Ranked 90 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021,8 Morocco faces significant vulnerability to the climate crisis, with heightened threats of both floods and droughts, as well as inundation due to sea level rise. Between 1900 and 2020, extreme temperatures affected 2.4 million people in Morocco while drought affected over 400,000 people and flood affected 228,000 people.9 From 2008 to 2021, wildfire internally displaced 9,500 people while flood displaced 22,000 people in the coastal nation.10 Due to the increasing frequency, severity and duration of climate hazards, such as floods, droughts and heatwaves, about 1.9 million people in Morocco are at risk of being internally displaced by 2050.11 In 2021, intense flash floods after heavy rain led to severe infrastructure damages in the country’s northern territory.12 In April and May of 2023, Morocco experienced an unusual, extreme heat wave.13 For a region already struggling with drought and water scarcity, extreme heat can create ideal conditions for devastating wildfires. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Morocco is US$142.9 billion, and with a significant vulnerability to climate disasters, the country is expected to lose US$800 million annually to adverse climate impacts. Approximately, 42% of Morocco’s coastline is projected to face a high risk of erosion and floods by 2030, threatening the lives and livelihoods of 60% of Morocco's population concentrated in this region. One of the most water-stressed countries globally, Morocco is nearing the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per person per year.14 The escalating droughts pose risks to both macroeconomic stability and food security, and are threatening the robust ecosystems of Morocco’s oases with drying soils already destroying palm groves at unprecedented rates.15 Furthermore, Morocco’s vulnerable populations, particularly in occupied Western Sahara, also face significant threats from climate change mitigation efforts. By developing large-scale renewable energy projects in occupied land and without the consent of indigenous Saharawi communities, Morocco is prolonging its illegal occupation of Western Sahara, reproducing colonial-era power imbalances, and violating the principles of self-determination.16  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Morocco, constituting 0.47 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.1 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission. Morocco pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 18.3% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario or 45.5% with substantial international assistance. In its updated Nationally Determined Contribution, Morocco has notably added mitigation efforts for phosphate and cement industries, with a target of reducing 20% of emissions from phosphate production. The country's National Energy Efficiency Strategy aims to decrease energy consumption in crucial sectors and targets a 24% reduction in the transport sector.17 For climate adaptation, Morocco identified flood and drought risks as the most significant in terms of their potential ramifications on both human and economic activities. Efforts include projects focused on strengthening water governance in agriculture and climate-smart irrigation advisory services for small-holder farmers.18  

Necessary Changes

The disproportionate impact of water scarcity, drought, and flood in Morocco reinforces the necessity for a just transition that prioritizes marginalized and overburdened communities.  Morocco is actively engaged in implementing strategies and initiatives to curb greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously adapting to the impacts of climate change. It is now critical to tackle Morocco’s extreme threat of water scarcity and food insecurity by increasing international financing support towards implementing sustainable water management practices, building resilience of smallholder farmers, and decreasing the country’s dependence on export-oriented and water intensive agriculture.19 While the North African nation has considerable investment in renewable energy projects, it also has a high dependence on imported hydrocarbons. With over 60% of the country’s energy coming from fossil fuels, the international community needs to support Morocco in phasing out coal, natural gas, and oil-based power plants. Moreover, it is imperative to ensure that the advancement of renewable energy does not serve as a means to undermine the fundamental human rights of the occupied Saharawi people, including their rights to self-determination, sovereignty, and control over resources.