Introduction to Micronesia

Micronesia is a highly scattered archipelago in the western region of the North Pacific Ocean made up of 4 states: Pohnpei, Chuuk, Yap, and Kosrae. The population is 114,1641 and is about 77% rural.2 As of 2013 (the most recent data), it is estimated that 41.2% of the population lives below the national poverty line; the share of wealth held by the bottom 20% is only 5.5%; and 56% of the population is between 0-24 years old.3 Micronesia consists of a tropical climate and, particularly in the western states, is heavily exposed to typhoons, excessive rainfall, and drought. These events are typically influenced by the warm and cold phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The State of Yap, due to its position as the most western state in the archipelago, is more heavily influenced by monsoon climatic conditions and therefore experiences a higher degree of droughts.3 Its economy is primarily service-based with the service sector making up 66.8% of GDP. Moreover 22.5% of GDP is made up of agriculture, forestry and fishing, and 4.9% of GDP is from industries such as construction.4 Along with this, 70%5 of its population engage in fishing, and small-scale agriculture involves 50% of the labor force and is responsible for 60% of local food.3  

Moreover, its labor force relies heavily on US grants and aid in the form of the Compact of Free Association agreement. For example, around 66% of the working population works for the government and 58% of government funding is provided by the US under the above agreement.3 Additionally, with this provision, Micronesians receive special access to migrate to the US and utilize its domestic programs all in exchange for US military access to the country, a power currently being encroached upon by China and furthering US-China tensions.6 However, with the program having  just ended in 2023,  the country is in a particularly vulnerable position in terms of economic stability and avenues for migration.7 With a weak national government,8 dependence on US aid, uncertain political and economic future, high poverty rates, and relatively young population, Micronesia is very  vulnerable to climate-induced risks and impacts. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Micronesia ranks 97 out of 191 countries in terms of overall climate vulnerability, and ranks 65 out of 191 in lack of coping capacity.9 In recent decades, natural disasters have increased in intensity. From 1980 to 2000, storms and droughts affected 29,003 individuals. Between 2001 and 2020, this number increased to 153,631 individuals impacted by such climate events.10 For example, Typhoon Maysak in 2015 led to Chuuk and Yap islands declaring a state of emergency. In the capital of Chuuk, Weno, 60-80% of homes were reported severely damaged, 800 homes were destroyed, and 6,000 individuals were displaced.11 Moreover, droughts in 2016 affected 96% of the population, also connected with food shortages, water rationing, and threats to local biodiversity.3 More recently, in May 2023, Typhoon Mawar caused damage to agricultural products such as banana trees and homes in the local communities of the Micronesian island states, affecting the lives of residents.12

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Currently, Micronesia has a GDP of $424 million USD.13 Its economic sectors have faced severe impacts due to climate change. Typhoon Chata’an in 2002 was reported to have demolished 231 structures and submerged roads, crops, and entire watersheds.14 This disaster was estimated to have cost $813,000 USD.15 Within the agricultural sector, Typhoon Maysak in 2015 destroyed 90% of key agricultural crops in the states of Chuuk and Yap, including banana, breadfruit, and taro, and was associated with damages of $11 million USD.3 In the future, within its tourism sector, its coral reefs, contributing $16 million USD16 per year in on-reef and adjacent-reef tourism, is expected to be severely impacted. From the 18th century to 2000, the aragonite saturation state, recognized as an indicator of coral reef growth, declined from 4.5 to approximately 3.9 ± 0.1. Projected under both the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the aragonite saturation state is anticipated to fall below the critical threshold required for maintaining healthy coral reefs as early as 2030.3 Micronesia’s revenue for tuna fishing license fees, between 2015 to 2018, contributed an average of $68 million USD per year and was responsible for 48% of Micronesia’s non-grant government revenue.5 However, under the RCP8.5 pathway, Micronesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is expected to experience a 13% decrease in purse seine tuna catch and 4% decrease in GDP by 2050 due to climate change.17 As a whole, its fisheries sector, responsible for 2% contribution to the local economy and $50 million annually in average local catch,3 is expected to see a 20-50% decrease in abundance of fish in coral reefs by 2050 in the larger Pacific Island region under the high global warming scenario.5 Overall, under the RCP8.5 pathway, its estimated Micronesia could see an annual economic loss of 10.51% of GDP by 2050.18

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

While Micronesia only accounts for < 0.01%19 of total carbon emissions, it has made conditional commitments to reduce its carbon emissions by 65% from electricity production by 2030 under the Paris Agreement. Moreover, the country has committed to implementing electricity accessibility to 100% of the population nationwide and building renewable energy infrastructure to account for 70% of total electricity production by 2030. Also, by 2030, Micronesia aims to establish and strengthen farmer cooperatives, support state-level farmer associations, improve market access, and increase coconut production to enhance climate change resilience within its agricultural sector. In the fisheries sector, Micronesia's objective is to oversee 50% of marine and 30% of terrestrial resources, limit commercial fishing in up to 30% of the marine environment, and ensure complete transparency in the tuna fishery by enhancing monitoring of FSM-flagged longline fishing vessels by 2030. To enhance preparedness and response to climate-induced disasters, Micronesia plans by 2025 to update the National Disaster Response Plan, complete GIS mapping nationwide, and upgrade and add new vessels for emergency response between islands.20

Necessary Changes

Even with a small carbon footprint, Micronesia has taken significant steps to reduce its emissions, increase renewable energy accessibility, strengthen the resilience of its agricultural sector, improve monitoring of its fishing industry, and improve disaster preparedness. However, many of its goals are conditional on international support. For example, Micronesia's National Energy Master Plans estimate that just to implement its energy goals, it will need $296 million USD over a 20 year period.21 Especially with Micronesia’s uncertain future of economic support from the USA and funding having ended in 2023, it remains extremely imperative for the international community to further work to assist in providing financial stimulus in the form of grants and other no-strings-attached funding. Furthermore, given the potential financial instability in Micronesia, it becomes increasingly crucial for the USA and other global stakeholders to assist Micronesia in transitioning economically away from complete reliance on individual entities. On the national level, considering Micronesia’s reliance on tuna fish licensing fees for non-grant government revenue, it is imperative for Micronesia to further diversify its economic sectors to reduce vulnerability to climate-induced disasters while retaining its robust land tenure policy that prioritizes local and communal ownership. Given that more than half of the population is under the age of 24, it is crucial for Micronesia to embrace a democratic economy that prioritizes the active participation of its youth, frontline workers, and other vulnerable demographics. Collectively, with the backing of the international community and deliberate national initiatives, achieving a just transition becomes more feasible.