Mali: A Brief Introduction

Mali is a landlocked country with a population of over 20 million.1 Located in the Sahel region of West Africa, its landscape is characterized by savannah and mixed woodland in the South, while its vast, sparsely populated North is situated in the Sahara Desert. The Niger River flows through the country, and is vital to the country’s fishing and agriculture industries. Despite only 14% of the country’s land being suitable for agriculture, agriculture accounts for almost 50% of GDP.2 Current political instability hinders efforts at adaptation, mitigation, and economic development. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Mali is vulnerable to desertification, water and air pollution, and water resource scarcity.3 Its geographical situation makes it prone to drought and to floods induced by seasonal rain, including 2020 floods that displaced at least 7,400 people, accounting for all new recorded internal displacements in 2020.4 Political instability, including coups in 2012 and 2020, compounds the effects of climate change and contributes to the tally of 326,000 internally displaced persons as of 2020.5 In Mali, it is difficult to untangle the relationship between political violence and environmental crisis, as this violence frequently involves conflict over resources between farmers and pastoralists.6  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

A global temperature increase of 3o C by 2100 would correspond to rainfall decreasing by up to 22% across Mali, an outcome that would be disastrous for the large agricultural sector.7 Decreased rainfall is already hampering the livelihoods of Malian farmers and fisherfolk.8 Agricultural losses due to climate change exacerbate food insecurity, which currently affects 20% of Mali’s population and leads to $4.06 billion in lost productivity per year.9 Continuing agricultural losses have the potential to be severe, as the Malian agricultural sector is largely dependent on ever-decreasing rainfall.10 Mali ranks 176 out of 182 numbered states on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative’s list of countries by vulnerability to climate change.11 It is the 7th most vulnerable country to climate change, and the 37th least prepared.12

Mapping Resilience and Migration Pathways

Mali faces economic, political, and geographical obstacles to mitigating the effects of climate change. In 2020, Mali initiated an NDC review process to make its NDC more realistic and ambitious.13 This review process reflects the country’s need for an institutional framework for addressing climate change. Indeed, Mali’s NDC calls for the establishment of an institutional framework. Mali’s current NDC is oriented towards maintaining the country – which is only responsible for 0.03% of global emissions – as a carbon sink by limiting emissions from energy production, agriculture, and land use change and forestry (LULUCF).14 Highlighting the risk climate change poses to Malian agriculture, the NDC advocates many adaptation strategies related to improved agriculture.15 Furthermore, a 2016 Ordinance established the Project to Strengthen Resilience to Food Insecurity in Mali, which includes a direction to help farmers and fisherfolk adapt to climate change.16 With regards to farming practices implemented at the household level, Diallo et al. find that using organic fertilizers and planting short-duration maize varieties correspond to increased maize yields and decreased food insecurity.17 Mali is part of the NDC Support Programme, which provided $596,160 of funding from January 2020 to December 2021. Under the NDC Support Programme, the UNDP and the German company Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH collaborate closely on NDC implementation.18 European development activity in Mali, and in the broader Sahel region, is not necessarily focused on promoting the best interest of African communities. Such activity is linked to military intervention and largely directed towards stemming the flow of migrants into Europe.19  

Necessary Changes

Mali’s vulnerability to food insecurity brought on by changing rainfall patterns and aggravated by political instability requires action on political, economic, and technological fronts. In the absence of large-scale institutional change, family and community level agricultural practices could play a major role in reducing food insecurity. Ensuring farmers access to affordable credit schemes and promoting farmer organizations will improve the capacity of small farmers.20 The successes of the UNCDF’s Local Climate Adaptive Living Facility-Mali in strengthening commune-level agricultural capacity is a positive sign for local initiatives.21 On a larger scale, Mali’s NDC emphasizes the importance of international financial support and technology transfer in adapting to climate change. It calls for assistance in developing hydropower, intensive rice agriculture, and reforestation.22 Any such grand interventions must not disrupt the livelihoods of the small farmers who comprise most of Mali’s population.