Introduction to Malawi

Malawi is a landlocked country located in southeastern Africa, with a population of 19.9 million1 , of which 82 percent is rural.2 The country has an extremely low GDP per capita of $634.8, with a high infant mortality rate of 31 per 1000 live births3 , a low life expectancy of 64 years, and a staggering 70% of the population living below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day.4 Malawi’s climate varies by geography between savanna and monsoon-influenced humid tropical climate, and over the past twenty years, the country has been experiencing an increased frequency, intensity, and magnitude of flood, drought and epidemics.5 Agriculture is the mainstay of the Malawian economy, employing over 76% of the working population6 and contributing around 22.7% of the country's GDP7 , after the service sector. The third largest lake in Africa covering one fifth of Malawi’s total area, Lake Malawi, and the Shire river basin are critical for supporting more than 90% of the nation’s hydropower and irrigation, fisheries livelihood, and domestic water supply.8 Malawi as the world’s most tobacco-dependent country earns 52% of its export revenue from raw tobacco.9 During Malawi’s colonial period, tobacco production in Nyasaland (now Malawi) increased by about 75% annually between 1890 and 191010 , and this has shaped the country’s continued reliance on a narrow range of export-oriented cash crops and a vulnerability to global market fluctuations.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

In Malawi, flooding and storms are the major causes of climate-induced displacement. Between 2008 and 2021, 55 disaster events were reported, with flood displacing over 500,000 people, and storm displacing over 140,000 people in the landlocked nation.11 In 2022, five back to back tropical storms and cyclones wreaked havoc in Malawi, Madagascar and Mozambique, displacing nearly 600,000 people, many of the same people who were devastated by Cyclone Idai in 2019.12 Then the country’s deadliest climate disaster, cyclone Freddy, struck southern Malawi in early 2023, devastating the communities and displacing half a million people while adding further pressure on an already strained healthcare system.13 In the past four decades, the incidence of natural hazards has been on the rise in Malawi, where infant mortality is high, life expectancy is low, and a high proportion of the population live in poverty. Between 1980 and 2000, there were 8 separate years of floods, 3 separate years of epidemics, and 3 separate years of droughts.14 However, these numbers increased to 14, 7 and 5 respectively between 2000 and 2020.15

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

With a GDP of $12.63 billion16 , Malawi is predominantly an agricultural-based economy, and the majority of its population depends on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. One of the most significant impacts of climate change in Malawi is the increased frequency and intensity of droughts, which is leading to crop failures, food shortages, and an increased risk of waterborne diseases. Over 6.4 million people were affected during the 20202-2021 production season as a result of prolonged dry spells followed by inconsistent mid-season rainfall.17 Economic model estimates suggest that climate change impacts cause a GDP loss of 5% per year.18 In southern Malawi, where one third of the country’s maize is grown, there are 12% annual losses in maize production due to floods.19 On 5th December, 2022, the government of Malawi declared an ongoing cholera outbreak with a consistently high case fatality rate above 3% as a public health emergency, with cyclone Freddy exacerbating such crises.20 The climate crisis also puts at risk the power sector in Malawi, where only 14.9% of the population have access to electricity21 while the remaining depend on traditional biomass and other fossil fuels, resulting in deforestation. The hydropower plants in Malawi’s Shire river generates 98% of the country’s electricity, but severe drought as a result of deficient rainfall seasons slashed power production by more than 50% in 201622 and 201723 , and by more than 80% in 2020.24

Mapping Resilience and Migration Pathways

Malawi, constituting 0.25 percent of the world's populations16 , is responsible for less than 0.005 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.25 And yet, the country is shouldering an extreme burden from the climate devastation in the form of increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events. Malawi pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 6% greenhouse gas emissions relative to Business As Usual (BAU) by  2040 and an additional 45% with substantial international support and funding. 26 The adaptation measures in Malawi's Nationally Determined Contribution fall under three primary pillars; (i) institutional framework, (ii) knowledge, technology and financing and (iii) resilience of the most vulnerable.27 The aim is to create a conducive atmosphere that fosters the integration of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA), enhance data and information management while increasing accessibility to technology and adaptation financing, and implement adaptation measures targeted at strengthening the resilience of the most at-risk Malawians.26 In 2021, Malawi launched the long term multi sectoral vision, ‘Malawi 2063’, to transform the nation into an “inclusively wealthy” and “self-reliant industrialized” “upper-middle-income” country by the year 2063.28 These complex measures focus on ensuring environmental sustainability while building a strong economy, characterized by competitive manufacturing, agriculture and mining industry, establishing an effective governance system, and developing globally competitive economic infrastructures.29

Necessary Changes

The aggravating impacts of climate change on Malawi underscore the urgency for an equitable transition that takes into consideration the needs of communities at the forefront of this global emergency. It is critical to build the climate and economic resilience of Malawi’s vulnerable farming communities through a diversified economy, eliminating the country’s reliance on tobacco farming, a damaging practice imposed during colonialism that exploits child labor30 , and drives deforestation, degradation of soil quality, and contamination of water resources in many regions.31 Additionally, the recurring climate shocks in Malawi are obstructing the country's socio-economic progress, trapping millions of people in poverty for decades on end.  It is a grave reminder that the countries least responsible for causing climate change are the worst affected by its devastating impacts, and these nations do not have the requisite resources to build their adaptive capacity and climate resilience. Between 2008 and 2021, floods and storms have uprooted and internally displaced 667,678 people across Malawi.32 Thus, alongside supporting a diversified and sustainable economy in Malawi, it is critical that international efforts be ramped up in order to curb the detrimental impacts of increased flooding, drought and epidemics on the lives and livelihood of Malawians.