Madagascar: A Brief Introduction

Madagascar is a large island off the coast of southern Africa in the Indian Ocean. The country suffers extreme poverty, where more than 80 percent of the country’s 28.4 million inhabitants1 live on less than $1.90 per day.2 The COVID-19 crisis reversed more than a decade of gains in income per capita, and historic droughts in Southern Madagascar, a particularly arid region, compounded these losses leading to widespread crop failure, growing food insecurity, and internal migration.3 About 60 percent of the population is rural4 and mainly dependent on subsistence farming; agriculture employs 64 percent of the workforce5 and generates 25 percent of GDP.6 Madagascar has a subtropical climate. The country experiences a hot and rainy season between November and March, while May to October are characterized by cooler, drier weather.7 Despite Facing compounding crises, the Malagasy government, a semi-presidential representative democratic republic, is working hard to respond to COVID-19 economic shocks, ongoing food insecurity, and massive impacts from devastating storms, though more resources are needed to address climate-related challenges. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Madagascar faces tropical storms, floods, and landslides that displace thousands of people each year. Recent studies find that climate change is producing warmer waters in the surrounding southwest Indian Ocean, which in turn is fueling more intense storms and cyclones impacting Madagascar.8 In the ten years from 2011 to 2021, approximately 811,000 people were internally displaced due to storms, floods, and droughts in the country.9 In 2022, five major tropical storms, Ana, Batsirai, Dumako, Emnati, and Gombe, internally displaced over 145,800 people,10 caused significant infrastructure damage, and decimated coffee crops and rice fields, negatively impacting farmers’ livelihoods and food insecurity in Madagascar.11 In addition to destructive storms and flooding, the Grand Sud of Madagascar is facing its most acute drought in 40 years related to consecutive years of failed rains, which has contributed to extreme food insecurity and significant crop failure, particularly impacting poor communities who are reliant on agricultural livelihoods.12 Climate change impacts combined with high levels of social and economic vulnerability have the potential to fuel significant displacement in the future. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Madagascar is $14.64 billion USD.13 The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a recession that was about three times deeper than in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, with a collapse in export revenues and private investment resulting in a contraction of GDP by 7.1% and of income per capita by 9.8%.14 Losses and damages compound the economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic from climate-related events. In Madagascar, the average annual losses caused by natural hazards, including droughts, earthquakes, epidemics, floods, cyclones, and extreme temperatures, are estimated at more than $100 million. Cyclones cause the most significant losses (85% of average annual losses), followed by floods (13%). The residential sector suffers the most severe losses, 75% of losses combined, and the Toamasina region is the most exposed.15 High poverty rates and lack of functional institutions increase Madagascar's vulnerability to natural and climatic hazards.

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

To cope with challenges and risks posed by the climate crisis and adapt climate-sensitive sectors and regions in the medium- and long-term, Madagascar has set up a policy framework that includes the 2006 National Adaptation Programme of Action, the 2010 National Climate Change Policy, the 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which was later converted to an NDC in September 2016, and the three National Communications. In its NDC, Madagascar aims to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of its emissions of GHG by 2030, representing 14% of national emissions compared to the BAU scenario.16 Madagascar intends to reduce GHG emissions by focusing on implementing climate-smart agriculture, increasing absorption of the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, and strengthening existing energy systems while implementing renewable energy.17

Necessary Changes

Madagascar spends a substantial part of its annual budget on social services and infrastructures in response to the losses and damages from the climate crisis. From 2011-2016, losses and damages associated with floods and cyclone events are estimated at 470-940 million US dollars per year, though studies related to adaptation costs do not yet exist yet for Madagascar.17 According to its NDC, costs associated with the implementation of the actions of the NDC are estimated at $42 billion USD.17 Given the precarious economic situation of Madagascar, the implementation of the NDC is conditioned by the availability of external financial support, especially through the financial mechanisms under the UNFCCC and other multilateral and bilateral sources. The effective implementation of Madagascar’s resilience and mitigation pathway requires the reinforcement of the national capacities, technical, institutional, mobilization and absorption of funding, and transfer of technology and research from developed countries, as well as the contributions of governments and other stakeholders that are actively involved in the fight against the climate crisis.