Introduction to Liberia

Liberia, the first independent republic in Africa, is located on the western coast of Africa. It has a population of 5.2 million,1 of which 47% is rural.2 Liberia's history is a complex tapestry of colonization, independence, and political upheaval, with the founding of the nation in the early 1800s shaped by the internal dynamics of slavery and race in the United States, as well as the foreign policy interests of the U.S. government.3 Colonization instituted a legacy of social and economic disparities between Americo-Liberians and the country’s indigenous populations, which detrimentally affected economic progress and climate impacts alike. With a tropical monsoon climate, the coastal nation experiences a heightened vulnerability to floods and epidemics, and climate change threatens to exacerbate the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.4 Liberia's economy is characterized by a mix of formal and informal sectors, with agriculture playing a significant role employing 41% of the working population5 and contributing 37% to the national GDP.6 Commodity exports, such as rubber, gold and iron ore, serve as the primary sources of export earnings for the West African nation.7  Across the 20th century, U.S.-owned corporations with backing from the U.S. State Department help give rise to such extractive and exploitative industries, which have in turn amplified Liberia’s vulnerability to the climate crisis.8

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement 

With significant threats from intense rainfall, storm surges, rising sea levels, and heightened erosion, Liberia is highly vulnerable to climate events, ranking 164 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index for 2000-2019.9 Approximately 2.2 million individuals are at risk of floods in the coastal nation, with 320,000 facing the threat of coastal erosion, and 2.1 million susceptible to windstorms.10 Floods and epidemics account for over 77% of the average annual hazard experienced by Liberia between  1980 and 2020.11 While there was only one flood and three epidemics recorded in Liberia between 1980 and 2000, the numbers increased to 5 and 4, respectively, between 2001 and 2020.12 From 2008 to 2021, flooding internally displaced over 30,000 people in the coastal nation.13 Liberia, with its abundant rivers, catchments, and low-lying coastal zone, is highly vulnerable to the increased risk of both urban and coastal flooding following changes in precipitation patterns.14 In 2018, Liberia experienced unusual torrential rain during the comparatively dryer months of August submerging parts of the capital Monrovia.15 The projected sea level rise of 16cm by 2030 threatens to displace 675,000 individuals and submerge 9,500 hectares of land in Greater Monrovia.16

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

In the event of a one-meter rise in sea levels, significant sections of major Liberian cities would become submerged, resulting in the loss of approximately $250 million worth of land and infrastructure.17 Liberia’s vulnerability to climate change impacts is compounded by its low GDP per capita of $675.7, high infant mortality rate of 57 per 1000 live births,18 and 27.6% of the population living below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day.19 U.S.-driven resource exploitation, unequal investment practices, and political interference has contributed to the underdevelopment of the West African nation.20  Such dynamics have resulted in the country’s high dependence on ‘climate sensitive’ sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and mining.21 With the agriculture sector dominated by traditional subsistence farming, rising temperatures and unpredictable changes in rainfall patterns risk compromising the livelihoods of the country’s predominantly low-income rural population.22

Mapping Resilience and Migration Pathways

In 2021, Liberia made up 0.07% of the world’s population but contributed less than 0.004% of the annual share of global carbon dioxide emission.23 Even though the West African nation’s contribution to climate change is insignificant, Liberia will continue to suffer from the escalating adverse impacts of climate change. In its Nationally Determined Contribution, Liberia set an unconditional emission reduction target of 10%  relative to the 2030 business as usual scenario, and an additional conditional target of 54% with international support.24  Liberia's NDC mitigation and adaptation targets will require a cumulative investment of approximately US$490.5 million by 2025, with 82% for mitigation and the remaining for adaptation.25 The country’s mitigation measures include conservation of mangrove ecosystems, reduction of deforestation, expansion of protected coastal ecosystems, adoption of sustainable agriculture practices, and implementation of low-emission livestock.26 The Environment Protection Agency of Liberia developed the National Adaptation Plan 2020-2030 to increase the resiliency of climate-sensitive sectors by strengthening institutional framework, facilitating the growth and implementation of adaptation efforts, and establishing financing mechanisms.27

Necessary Changes

In order to advance the economic and climate resilience of Liberians in an inclusive manner, there is a pressing necessity to substitute the enduring neo-colonial relationship between the Western imperialist powers and Liberia with an equitable and empowered partnership.28 Following over a century of resource exploitation and imbalanced trade relations, urgent action needs to be taken in order to decrease Liberia’s dependency on export-oriented industries, which perpetuate a continuous cycle of poverty and underdevelopment in the country. It is now necessary for Liberia and the international community to build its adaptive capacity by improving infrastructure and key services, protecting biodiversity and the ecosystem of the country, and developing resilience of unserved and underserved population groups. The intensifying negative impacts of the climate crisis on the coastal nation, with widespread poverty and inadequate access to essential services, highlights the need for a just transition characterized by inclusive development, environmental sustainability, and social cohesion.