Introduction to Lesotho

Lesotho, a mountainous, landlocked country completely surrounded by South Africa, has a population of 2.3 million.1 The country has a rural population of 70%,2 and a low GDP per capita of $1,107.4,3 with more than 49.7% of the population living below the national poverty line.4 Lesotho mainly has a subtropical highland climate, and in recent years, the country has been experiencing floods and extreme levels of drought.5 This poses a significant challenge to Lesotho’s agriculture sector, which employs over 30% of the working population6 and contributes about 3.5% to the country's GDP.7 Endowed with vast mineral resources and with the sector contributing over 32% of the country’s export revenue,8 Lesotho has multiple large scale diamond mines, in which Western companies have majority stakes. Besides revenue from agriculture and diamond production, remittances received by the country amounts to 20% percent of the GDP,9 with high numbers of Basothos working in South African mines. Furthermore, Lesotho is heavily reliant on its sole neighbor for trade and the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, which exports water to South Africa, has exacerbated the existing unequal power dynamics between the two nations.10 These dynamics of water governance, agricultural production, trade, and mining are part and parcel of the country’s vulnerability to climate impacts. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Lesotho is moderately vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 61 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.11 The major climate hazards experienced by Lesotho are droughts, floods and storms, which account for over 90% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.12 The 2011 floods in Lesotho were the most extensive ever documented since the 1930s, while the drought experienced during 2015-2016 is considered the most severe one on record. Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 2 separate years of drought with the number increasing to 6 between 2001 and 2020.12 With over two-thirds of the population dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, droughts exacerbate the existing challenges of poverty and food insecurity in the country. In 2019 alone, 433,000 Basothos were affected by drought, while in 2020, the number stood at 766,000.13 At least 71,000 individuals residing in rural areas were described as being on the brink of famine, facing severe food insecurity and dire hunger conditions.14 Between 2008 and 2022, about 10,000 Basothos have been displaced internally as a result of flooding, and storms displaced another 3000 people within the country.15 The frequency, severity and duration of these climate disasters in Lesotho are only expected to increase with the changing climate, and disproportionately impact the vulnerable communities in its rural and mountainous regions with very limited adaptive capacity. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Lesotho is US$2.55 billion,16 with a staggering 49.7 percent of its population living below the national poverty line,17 and 18 percent of the labor force unemployed.18 Between 2002 and 2017, poverty rates in Lesotho only fell slightly from 56.6% to 49.7%. And the minimal gains made were concentrated in the urban regions, leaving behind the rural and mountainous regions where a significant 70% of the population resides. As a result, poverty remains persistently high in these areas, exacerbating the socio-economic divide within the country. During December 2010 and January 2011, Lesotho experienced record-breaking rains, floods, and rock slides, resulting in estimated losses of 3.2% of the GDP.19 Between 1900 and 2020, droughts led to losses of 1 million US dollars.20 With the water sector contributing 8-10% of the GDP, Lesotho’s water resources are being increasingly impacted due to reduced precipitation and changing rainfall patterns. This is putting stress on the country’s vast rain-fed agricultural sector, adversely impacting the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Furthermore, when drought hit Southern Africa in 2016, Lesotho exported water to its powerful neighbor while its own population suffered due to distressing water scarcity.21 This is a consequence of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, which was imposed by South Africa’s apartheid regime on Lesotho and while the project brought economic benefits to both countries, it also inflicted extensive environmental damage and caused significant human suffering.22  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Lesotho, constituting 0.03 percent of the world's population, is responsible for less than 0.007 percent of the global carbon dioxide emission.23 Lesotho pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 10% of its greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and 35% with substantial international support, such as finance, capacity building, and technology transfer.24 The mitigation measures in Lesotho's Nationally Determined Contribution include adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices, increased GHG sequestration in forestry, and sustainable waste management systems.25 Amidst severe land degradation and food insecurity, Lesotho has been undertaking projects focused on land rehabilitation and sustainable crop production.26 These include implementation of the Community-Based Forest Resources Management Programme, and the Land Rehabilitation Program. The initiatives aim to restore the country's natural resources, including water and grasslands, while also enabling communities to cultivate their own food for both subsistence and commercial purposes in the face of extreme weather conditions. 

Necessary Changes

Lesotho is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. It is now critical for the global community to support Lesotho in a just transition that is inclusive of its underserved, low-income, and at-risk communities. While Lesotho is currently implementing measures to enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers through the adoption of improved farming techniques, there is a critical need for additional initiatives that concentrate on livelihood reconstruction and sectoral diversification to further strengthen the resilience of vulnerable smallholder farmers in the predominantly agrarian economies. Given the severe adverse impacts of Lesotho’s mining sector on communities near mines and the broader environment, the country should promote divestment from extractive and ecologically destructive industries, while in the short term, it should enforce the highest environmental and human rights standards in all stages of due diligence and operational processes.27 In addition to the aforementioned measures, there is a pressing need for Lesotho to enforce inclusive and participatory local and regional water governance practices that takes into account the needs of Lesotho's at-risk communities. Finally, the country needs to minimize its reliance on South Africa and diversify its trade partners to reduce its socio-economic vulnerabilities, and enhance its overall resilience.