Introduction to Lebanon

Lebanon, located on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean, has a population of 5.49 million people,1 of which 11% is rural.2 The coastal nation has a predominantly hot-summer Mediterranean climate, and in recent years, the country has been experiencing more intense extreme weather events.3 This challenging situation has been further compounded by Lebanon's devastating economic and financial crisis, which began in 2019 and was exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP plunging from US$51.6 billion in 2019 to US$23.1 billion in 2021.4 As a consequence, Lebanon's classification shifted from being an upper middle-income country to a lower-middle income status.5 Traditionally characterized by the banking, finance and tourism sectors, Lebanon's economy has been primarily driven by its service sector, which accounts for a substantial 94.1%, while the agriculture and manufacturing sectors together contribute the remaining 5.9%.6 The ongoing Syrian Civil war, which began in 2011, severely impacted Lebanon and led to a high influx of refugees, making it the country with the world's highest refugee population per capita.7 Lebanon’s complex history, marked by colonization and regional conflicts, has significantly heightened the nation's vulnerability to the challenges posed by the climate crisis. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Lebanon is vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 44 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.8 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are storms, floods and wildfire, which account for over 78% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.9 Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 1 year of storm with the number increasing to 3 between 2001 and 2020. In 2015 alone, over 1 million Lebanese people were affected by flood, while in 2019, the number stood at 11,000. Between 2008 and 2022, 11 disaster events were reported in Lebanon, amongst which storms  displaced 5,000 people and floods displaced over 1,000 people.10 Communities in Lebanon’s northern forested regions are grappling with scorching heat waves, dwindling rainfall, and the looming danger of wildfires.11 Adding to the complexity of this situation is the fact that approximately 25% of Lebanon's current population consists of Syrian refugees. While the Syrian conflict has been a key driver of this refugee crisis, a significant number of Syrians have been forced to flee to Lebanon due to the intensifying drought in their homeland’s northern and northeastern regions.12  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Lebanon is US$ 23.13 billion,13 with almost 75% of the country’s population living in poverty,14 and the unemployment rate at 29.6% of the labor force.15 Lebanon’s Ministry of Environment projects a 14% decline in Lebanon's GDP by 2040, and 32% by 2080 due to climate change.16 Approximately 90% of the population lives in coastal cities along a 225 km shoreline.17 These areas are confronted by significant risks like rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion, posing threats to critical infrastructure and fragile ecosystems.18 Climate change has aggravated the country's existing socio-economic crisis, and the potential cost of inaction could soar to approximately $80.7 billion by 2040.19 Once considered water-rich in the Middle East, Lebanon is experiencing significantly reduced levels of rainfall, pushing the country toward a near-hydrological drought.20  Apart from the climate-related challenges, the ongoing crisis in Lebanon has led to elevated levels of poverty and food insecurity among its population, including the 1.5 million Syrian refugees residing within its borders.21  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Lebanon, constituting 0.07 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.04 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.22 Lebanon pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 20% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and 31% with substantial international support.23 Furthermore, by 2030, Lebanon aims to fulfill 18 percent of its electricity needs and 11 percent of its heating requirements through renewable sources. The Middle Eastern nation is prioritizing policy and fiscal reforms to enhance the energy and transportation sectors, focusing on energy efficiency, sustainable land and water resource management, pollution reduction in agriculture, waste, and industry, and community and infrastructure resilience.24  Lebanon aims to prioritize climate actions that specifically benefit vulnerable groups and adopt a gender-sensitive approach in its policies and interventions.25 Recently, The Shade for Life project in Lebanon adopted a participatory approach to combat ecosystem degradation, improve livelihoods, mitigate climate change, and prevent biodiversity loss.26

Necessary Changes

Lebanon is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. The country’s path towards fostering a resilient society hinges upon several key factors. There is a critical need for reliable and consistent climate finance and investments, which can serve as a cornerstone for sustainable development.27 Additionally, Lebanon's institutions need to bolster their capacity and governance mechanisms to effectively navigate the challenges of climate change and its associated complexities. It is critical for the international community to support Lebanon through climate finance to fund climate-related projects and initiatives, technology transfer to facilitate the adoption of sustainable and clean technologies, capacity sharing to enhance local expertise in climate action, and technical assistance to ensure the successful implementation of climate policies and projects. In addition to these climate-related efforts, it is imperative to address the plight of Syrian refugees living in dire conditions in Lebanon, and at risk of deportation by Lebanese armed forces.28 It is incumbent upon the international community, as well as the Lebanese government, to ensure the protection of these refugees, upholding their fundamental rights and dignity.