Laos: A Brief Introduction

Laos is a country located in the lower Mekong River Basin of Southeast Asia. Its population is about 7.5 million people1 and is about 62% rural.2 Currently, life expectancy is 68,3 18.3% of the population lives below the national poverty line,4 and the share of the bottom 40% account for only 20% of the national income.5 The situation only worsened under COVID with 70% of children unable to access virtual classes and increased malnutrition rates.6 Laos has a tropical climate with 70% of rainfall and humidity accounted for by the southeast monsoon. Annually, rainfall can get to 3,000 mm per year.7 Breaking down Laos’s economic composition, 50% GDP is accounted for by agriculture, 40% by industry, and 10% by services.8 Moreover, 85% of the population is employed through agriculture and the main crops grown are rice (accounting for 90% of crop production on arable land), corn, sweet potatoes, sugarcane, tobacco, cotton, tea, etc.9 However, 36% of exports are mineral products as Laos accounted for over 14% of the world’s production of bismuth in 2019 and 5% of the world’s production of barite.10 Laos has also become a hub for hydropower extraction in the region, but due foreign investment into this industry from countries such as China have led to significant debt burdens.11 Currently, Laos’s general gross government debt stands at 121.7%.12 In general, with a workforce reliant on agricultural production, an extractive economy, high debt burdens, and significant poverty in the region, Laos is vulnerable to many factors including inflation, price shocks, and intensified climate impacts.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Laos currently ranks 91 out of 191 countries in the 2024 INFORM Risk database with a ranking of 49 out of 191 countries in terms of lack of coping capacity.13 Human settlements including villages and towns are highly vulnerable with over 47% of these settlements are reported to have been exposed to at least 1 disaster.14 At the same time, climate-related disasters have only increased in intensity and frequency. For example, between 2008 to 2014, Laos reported 6 disaster events leading to 98,000 internally displaced peoples. From 2015 to 2022, this number increased as 14 more disaster events were reported causing more than 147,000 internal displacements.15 More recently, as a result of simultaneous tropical storm Podul and tropical depression Kajiki in 2019, this led to severe flooding that left 580,000 people affected and 100,000 displaced from these disasters.16 As a result of these storms and subsequent flooding, this makes 2019 the most intense year of climate-related disasters between 2008 to 2022. In total, climate-related disasters have led to 245,000 total displacements between 2008 to 2022.17

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Laos is 15.47 billion.18 However, Laos’s economy has experienced severe impacts from climate change.  In the past, from 1970 to 2010, 33 climate-related disasters led to over 9 million people affected and more than $400 million USD in damages with specific hotspots of Phongsali, Houaphan, and Louang Namtha specifically vulnerable to disasters.19 In the agricultural sector, the industry is further vulnerable to these short term effects of climate-related disasters including flooding, stronger El Niño events, tropical storms, etc. For example, in 2010, a severe El Nino event and subsequent droughts led to a 6.7% decrease in rice production.20 In 2013, major flooding led to over 350,000 individuals affected, thousands of livestock killed, 15,000 ha of rice crop destroyed, and destruction of civil infrastructure.21 Just recently, in August 2022, major flooding and landslides as a result of tropical storm Mulan affected 40,000 individuals, destroyed at least 540 houses, and damaged 8,500 hectares of farmland.22 It is estimated that under certain emission pathways, rainfall and temperature variability could lead to a decrease of 5 to 20% depression in local rice yields by 2040.23 Laos’s agricultural sector is also vulnerable to long term effects such as land degradation as a result of soil erosion as well as other unsustainable agricultural practices. The 2010 to 2011 agricultural census revealed 20% of villages experienced light land degradation, 8% experienced moderate degradation, and 1% experienced severe degradation of land.24 Laos’s hydropower industry is also particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. In 2018, extreme weather led to the Xepian-Xe Nam Noy hydropower dam in the Attapeu province to collapse not only destroying important infrastructure, but displacing 6,000 individuals and killing 27 individuals.25 The International Energy Agency reports that there will likely be a continual decrease in hydropower capacity until the end of 2100.26 Overall, extreme weather events are expected to lead to up to a 2% decrease in Laos’s GDP annually.27

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Currently, Laos is responsible for 0.09% of global greenhouse gas emissions and has committed to a 60% reduction of emissions by 2030 unconditionally under the Business as Usual scenario of the Paris Agreement.28 In 2013, 95% of its total emissions were from Land Use Change & Forestry and Agriculture sectors.29 In that way, Laos has committed to reducing emissions in its forestry sector from both land degradation and deforestation, implement conservation strategies, manage forests sustainably, foster national parks and expansion of preserves, and increase carbon stocks of the forest. In total, Laos is committed to reducing this sector’s emissions by  1,100ktCO2e per year on average between 2020 to 2030. Laos is also working on its energy efficiency through improving its hydropower capacity, implementing the introduction of 50,000 energy efficient stoves for cooking, and bettering the transportation infrastructure. Laos has a conditional climate mitigation goal of net zero by 2050 with 2030 conditional targets of increasing forest cover by 70%, increasing installed capacity of renewable energy, sustainable water strategies for 50,000 ha of lowland rice cultivation areas, and waste management plans. Currently, Laos has made significant progress in their goals. In 2018, Laos approved a master plan for National land allocation that incorporates key land management strategies for development and protection. In 2017, Laos also approved a Meteorology and Hydrology Law that is working to reduce impacts from natural disasters and provide readily available weather monitoring systems, leading to improved infrastructure for its network of meteorological and hydrology stations.30 At this moment, most of Laos’s migrant policies are focused on labor migration and migrant worker protections. For example, on June 16th of 2022, a Decent Work Country Programme was implemented with the support of the International Labour Organization to assist with improving social network systems, migrant worker rights, employment promotion for vulnerable communities, and skill development.31 Currently, in order to accomplish Laos’s climate goals, Laos needs $4.76 billion USD in financial support.32

Necessary Changes

Laos has made significant commitments to reduce its sectoral emissions, improve upon its sustainable energy infrastructure, implement important land conservation strategies, and improve its infrastructure to support vulnerable populations. Currently, Laos’s ability to accomplish its adaptation and mitigation strategies has been hindered as a result of national poverty, extreme debt, and financial barriers. As a result, this necessitates significant support from the international community in the form of monetary stimulus as well as debt alleviation. For example, it is estimated that since 2000, China’s investments have led to a debt amount of 65% of Laos’s GDP owed specifically to China.33 Moreover, as investments have focused on Laos’s hydropower and also mining industries, it is noted that these industries only employ 1% of the total labor workforce and account for only 30% of export earnings.6 This emphasizes the need for the international community to also take steps to alleviate the pressure to develop extractive industries that harm the environment and are of limited benefit to vulnerable communities and the broader population. Extractive pressures have also led to social injustice such as mass displacement of vulnerable communities. By 2019, the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Laos estimated 60,000 have been officially resettled in order to allow for the construction of new hydropower infrastructure.34 Risks associated with dam-induced displacement include homelessness, unemployment, landlessness, food insecurity, increases in morbidity & mortality, etc.35 Due to this, Laos must take steps to ensure a democratic economy uplifting the participation and wellbeing of frontline workers. Through intentional efforts from the international community and Laos’s national government, a just transition can be achieved.