Introduction to The Kyrgyz Republic

The Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan) is a landlocked mountainous country located in Central Asia between two major mountain systems, the Tien Shan and the Pamirs. Its population of 6.7 million1 in 2021 is about 63 percent rural.2 The Kyrgyz Republic has four major climatic zones, and the majority of the country is arid, with varying annual precipitation and temperatures.3 The Kyrgyz Republic’s topography and climate make large areas vulnerable to a variety of natural hazards: from earthquakes to avalanches, floods and mudslides, severe droughts, to glacial lake outbursts.4 Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has experienced ethnic conflicts,5 and civil unrest over economic issues and political corruption;6 as of 2021, the Kyrgyz Republic is officially a presidential system.7 Post-independence economic reforms cut poverty rapidly, from 52 percent of the population in 2000 to 20 percent in 2019, but it remains more prevalent and most severe in rural and mountainous regions.8 With 63 percent of the population in rural mountainous areas heavily dependent on crop and livestock production, the impacts of the climate crisis will have a disproportionate adverse impact on agricultural livelihoods. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

In the context of high social vulnerability and hazard exposure, climate impacts, including drought, land and mudslides, flash floods, and glacier lake outburst floods, contribute to significant levels of disaster risk.3 The Kyrgyz Republic is particularly vulnerable to landslides as one of Central Asia’s most mountainous nations. As a result of heavy and prolonged rainfall, which is projected to increase,9 flash flooding, mudslides, and landslides will continue to threaten Kyrgyz communities. In 2018 the Kyrgyz Republic experienced a major landslide in Jalal-Abad displaced 4,700 people, damaging homes and livelihoods.10 By 2050 the volume of internal climate migration in Kyrgyzstan is projected to range from 0.14 million (2.4 percent of the population) to 0.22 million (3.9 percent of the population), with the majority of people migrating toward the Ferghana Valley because of water availability.11  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

In terms of GDP per capita, the Kyrgyz Republic ranks among the poorest countries in the world, as reflected in its national poverty rate of 25.3% in 2020.12 The Kyrgyz Republic is the third-most remittance-dependent country in the world, with remittances equivalent to 28.5 percent of GDP in 2019.13 In 2020, with GDP contracting by an estimated 8 percent due to the COVID-19 crisis,14 remittances amounted to 29.4 percent of GDP.15 In 2022, the real GDP expanded, though the Kyrgyz Republic continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.16 The country’s national economy has rapidly transitioned away from agriculture accounting for 14 percent of the GDP. However, a large proportion of the population remains dependent on agriculture for subsistence, and the sector employs a significant part of the population. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to drought and water shortages and faced losses of at least $14 million per year between 1991 and 2011, and these losses are projected to increase.17 Across sectors, the country’s 2012–2020 disaster management strategy found that in the preceding two decades, about 200 emergencies had occurred each year, causing direct damages of US$30 - 35 million per year; though, in recent years, there has been “steadfast growth” in disasters.18  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

The Kyrgyz Republic has identified climate change impacts as a significant challenge to its development goals and has identified its commitment to climate change adaptation through its First Nationally Determined Contribution (2016) and Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (2021). In 2016 the Republic submitted its Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, directed by the State Agency for Environment Protection and Forestry under the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. The country has identified its agriculture, energy, water, and infrastructure sectors as the most vulnerable to the climate crisis.19 The Kyrgyz Republic intends to mitigate its GHG emissions by developing renewable energy and intends to focus on adaptation measures to reduce economic losses from climate impacts through optimizing agricultural production and improving water resource management.20  

Necessary Changes

Despite these actions by the government, the Kyrgyz Republic cannot effectively implement strong adaptation and mitigation actions, without over $6 billion in predictable financial resources from the international community, in addition to access to appropriate technologies and capacity building.20 In addition to accessing financial resources, the Kyrgyz Republic faces several challenges to climate action, including weak institutional and knowledge management infrastructure, inadequate monitoring predictive systems, low public awareness of climate strategies and plans, and data issues preventing an understanding of distributional risks.20 In response, it is essential to increase participation and ownership of local communities, bolster research initiatives aimed at understanding differential impacts of the climate crisis, strengthen the transparency and responsiveness of climate finance, and build the capacity of local stakeholders and financial structures to manage finances effectively while delivering adaptation results.