Introduction to Kuwait

Kuwait, a small, desert-covered state in the Arabian peninsula, has a population of 4.8 million1 , of which 0% is rural.2 As a hyper-arid country, Kuwait faces a uniform hot desert climate with low levels of nutrient-rich land.3 This makes Kuwait extremely vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis, which include higher average temperatures, increased droughts, lack of rainfall and water resources, and the increasing severity of desert dust storms.4 As one of the most densely populated OPEC states, most of the country resides along the eastern Persian Gulf, with nearly 75% living in Kuwait City. In addition to its immense oil and gas reserves, Kuwait’s strategic location in international trade routes has made it one of the wealthiest nations in the world, with tremendous global economic implications.5 With its wealthy oil-based economy, Kuwait attracts millions of migrants for employment, resulting in expatriates comprising 68.3% of its population and subsequently making Arab Kuwaitis a minority in the country.6 Further, because the majority of these expatriate workers are men, there is a large discrepancy in the sex ratio, with there being 156.1 men to every 100 women in the country.7 Kuwait is a constitutional monarchy with the Emir acting as monarch and head of state while the elected parliament still has an influential role in politics.8

Mapping Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Kuwait is highly vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis, especially as it ranks amongst the top five most water-stressed countries in the world.9 It has the world's lowest per capita renewable internal freshwater supply and relies heavily on costly seawater desalination techniques to meet internal water demands.10 Further, Kuwait’s water stress recently reached an alarming 3850% while Kuwaiti per capita water consumption is among the highest in the world—almost triple that of the United Kingdom.11 The climate crisis will continue to exacerbate these limitations while the sustainability of water resources for future Kuwaiti generations falls under serious threat. Just by looking at current trends in rising temperatures, heat-related deaths in Kuwait are projected to rise by 5.1% to 11.7% by 2100, meaning that 13.6% of all deaths could be attributed to climate change-induced heat rise.12 Further, migrant workers are disproportionately affected by the climate crisis, as the majority of migrants have poor working conditions, limited access to healthcare resources, and spend extended time outdoors, where they are more susceptible to dust storms and extreme heat. Many of these workers come from poor socio-economic backgrounds, limited education, and are subjected to discrimination, leaving them unable to change their jobs. The risk of dying from dust storms was 4% higher for non-Kuwaitis than for Kuwaitis, while there was a doubling and tripling in the risk of death from heat stress for non-Kuwaitis compared to Kuwaitis.13 Flooding due to rising sea levels also poses a significant threat, as, without necessary adaptation, 594,500 people are projected to be impacted annually between 2070 and 2100.14 Given that a large percentage of Kuwait’s population resides on this coast, the rapid rise in sea levels can increase the likelihood that millions of future Kuwaitis will experience climate-induced displacement.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Kuwait is $161.8 billion,15 while the GDP per capita is $37,533.16 With its extensive oil reserves of 102 billion barrels, or 6% of global reserves, Kuwait is not only one of the wealthiest countries in the world,17 but it also has the strongest currency in the world—the Kuwaiti Dinar.18 Kuwait is highly vulnerable to external shocks as its economy has a single-point failure, where oil comprises 92% of all export revenues, 90% of government income, and over half of GDP.19 The climate crisis can further exacerbate this financial hazard, as sea level rise can cause the country to lose up to 3% of its coastal territory and a subsequent 5% of total GDP.20 Further, reports estimate that a 0.5-meter to 2-meter increase in sea level can cause a residential loss of up to $11.42 billion for coastal zones.21 Culturally, fish is a staple of Kuwaiti cuisine and makes up the country’s second-largest export industry, yet Kuwaiti fisheries can only provide 33-49% of the total demand.22 While fish production has steadily declined over the past 20 years, the climate crisis will further exacerbate this as water temperatures rise, leading to a further departure of local fish, reducing economic output, and increasing fishing vulnerabilities. It is also crucial to note that Kuwait has a practically nonexistent agricultural sector because of its water scarcity, lack of land, and extreme weather conditions, accounting for less than 0.5% of GDP.23 This has led Kuwait to import over 96% of its food,24 giving it a high risk of food insecurity and posing a significant threat to the island’s future food security and distribution operations, as foreign exporters may begin to prioritize domestic needs as arable land becomes less viable in the face of the climate crisis. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Despite only representing 0.06% of the world’s population, Kuwait produces 0.32% of global GHG emissions,25 emitting significantly more than its global proportionate share. While this will initially prove a challenge because of its massive economic dependence on petroleum, Kuwait has unconditionally pledged to reduce its total emissions by 7.4% by 2035.26 This reduction goal is relatively modest compared to global rates, especially given its prominent role in emissions and fossil fuel use. However, outside of its NDCs, Kuwait has more long-term goals, such as achieving net-zero emissions in the oil and gas sector by 2050 and complete net-zero emissions for the country by 2060.27 These included 14 new projects within the Clean Development Program through the Kyoto Protocol, which aims to achieve economic growth that follows and supports sustainable development principles.28 Some of these plans include a $110 billion investment in energy transition, as it plans to rely on LNG to achieve carbon neutrality.29 By 2050, Kuwait plans to install 18,000 EV charging points, develop a plastic recycling capability of 120,000 metric tonnes per year, and produce 13 million metric tons of second-generation biofuels annually.30 Total gas flaring from oil production has also been reduced from 17% in 2005 to less than 1% in 2005, and Kuwait plans to have zero routine flaring in domestic capacities by 2030.31 Kuwait also plans to have 15% of its total energy share renewable by 2030 and 50% by 2050.32 From a financial perspective, Kuwait has also taken steps to begin diversifying away from oil, as “Kuwait Vision 2035” plans to transform the country into a financial hub that promotes innovation, investment in digital infrastructure, and support in digital ecosystem startups.33

Necessary Changes

Although Kuwait has been making significant progress through mitigation measures, the country still needs to implement countless changes as it transitions to a low-carbon economy and adapts to the challenging impacts of the climate crisis. The first change is in the energy sector, as energy production is unsustainable and makes up 95% of total domestic carbon emissions through oil and natural gas.34 Further, Kuwait has consistently ranked in the top 10 countries for per capita energy consumption,35 and this rate has continued to rise steadily as rising temperatures lead to higher demands for air conditioning.36 Kuwait also heavily subsidizes electricity costs for its residents, removing any incentive for Kuwaitis to limit their consumption, so this practice should be removed or significantly altered as the country attempts to reduce emissions.37 In the long run, Kuwait should aim to fully diversify its economy from oil, not only because of the transition to a low-carbon economy, but also because foreign oil demand will decline with the global shift in sustainability. This transition can help attract more Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) and boost private sector participation away from oil. Better water management programs and land use planning strategies must also be developed to adapt to potential droughts and extreme heat, and better coastal protection measures like seawalls and sustainable urban infrastructure must be constructed for potential floodings.38