Introduction to North Korea

Situated in the eastern region of the Asian continent, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea has a population of 26.071 million people of which is about 37% rural.2 Its estimated that the country also has a poverty level of 60%3 and 10.7 million people within its population are malnourished.4 Its climate consists of a monsoon-influenced hot-summer humid continental climate in the west and a monsoon-influenced warm-summer humid continental climate in the east. As of 2017, the agricultural sector accounts for 22.5% of GDP, industry accounts for 47.6% of GDP, and the services sector makes up 29.9% of GDP.5 Its main export commodities include  minerals, metallurgical products, manufactures (including armaments), textiles, and agricultural and fishery products. Currently, China is its main trading partner as they account for 86% of trade of all exports with North Korea and 91.9% of imports.6 Since 1948, North Korea has been ruled as an authoritarian socialist state and has attempted to remain an isolated government, reducing trade and contact with outside countries.5 Such self-sufficiency policies, in conjunction with restrictions on citizens including inhibited freedom of movement, have contributed to chronic food insecurity and malnourishment.7 Moreover, North Korea still remains tied to economic burdens as it holds an estimated $5 billion in debt.5 In total, due to North Korea’s high poverty and malnutrition rates, narrow dependence on China, strict political regime, isolationist strategies, and economic debt burdens, the country remains highly vulnerable to trade shocks and climate-induced impacts.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

North Korea ranks 65 out of 191 countries in terms of overall climate vulnerability, and 23 out of 191 countries in terms of lack of coping capacity in particular.8 Moreover, climate vulnerability is broadly experienced, as it is estimated that 4 out of 10 individuals in 2019 were affected in some way by natural disasters.9 Among such climate impacts and outcomes, between 2008 to 2022, North Korea has experienced 565,000 internal displacements as a result of natural disasters, especially floods. The frequency of climate-induced disasters has also increased. Between 2008 to 2014, 6 disaster events were reported, rising to 16 total disaster events reported between 2015 to 2022.10 For example, in 2012, consecutive disasters of intense flooding and Typhoon Bolaven led to the death of 231 individuals and 241,547 people displaced. In 2016, severe flooding led to the damaging of more than 35,500 houses, ⅔ of which were completely destroyed.11 More recently, in 2020, five major typhoons were recorded within a short period of several weeks. One of these typhoons, Typhoon Maysak, individually led to the destruction of 1,000 homes and therefore the displacement of such households.12

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Although GDP for North Korea has not been published, using purchasing power parity (PPP), its real GDP is estimated to be around $40 billion USD.5 North Korea has also already experienced significant loss from climate impacts. Of the few recorded high-profile climate-related disasters in North Korea, it is estimated that each flood has cost on average $1,958 million USD and $1,023 million USD for typhoons. This figure includes $19 billion USD in estimated damages from flooding in 1995 and $6 billion USD of damages from Typhoon Phra Phirun in 2000. Excluding these two high-cost disaster events and another flooding event associated with $2.2 billion USD in damages in 2002, each flooding event caused an average of $61.25 million USD in property damage and typhoons an average $27.83 million in property damages as well.13 Subsequent impacts on yields and food security include back-to-back flooding and Typhoon Bolaven in 2012 that led to the destruction of 121,998 ha of farmland and damage to important infrastructure such as railway, roads, and bridges14 and flooding from 2016 that damaged 16,000 ha of farmland.11 Moreover, according to FAO satellite imagery, significant drought led to the reduction of 30% of early crops in June 2017.15 In 2020, due to climate impacts and other factors, it is estimated North Korea fell behind on its crop yields and left a food gap of 860,000 tons or 2.3 months of food use.16 The following year, satellite data has shown that heavy summertime flooding led to yields falling significantly short from annual averages.17 The food crisis and economic impacts from climate change will only worsen as it is estimated that both the South Hamgyong and North Pyŏngan provinces, accounting for 38% of rice production and 30% of soybean production, will experience 3 extra months of severe drought each year by 2035.18 In East Asia alone, it is estimated that simply the cost of adaptation to climate change will take 0.3% or less of regional GDP per year between 2010 to 2050.19 Overall, by 2100, East Asia could experience a loss of 5.3% of its annual GDP by 2100.20

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

While North Korea only accounts for 0.14% of global CO2 emissions, North Korea plans to reduce emissions by 35,800,000 tons of GHG emissions or simply by a rate of 16.4% by 2030. With international support, North Korea expects to reduce its emissions by 52% by 2030. Currently, North Korea has implemented a Forest Restoration Campaign to increase its carbon sequestration abilities that by 2017, has already replanted 603,000 hectares of forest and expects to reforest 1,000,000 more hectares of land by 2024. Moreover, North Korea has implemented two strategies known as Natural Disaster Risk Strategy and National Environmental Protection Strategy to meet international goals for climate mitigation and adaptation. As a result of these strategies, progress has been made in improving upon early warning systems for vulnerable communities, such as quality weather forecasting, timely radio announcements, text messaging services, and better disaster preparation and response mechanisms.21 However, in order for North Korea to accomplish all its climate mitigation and adaptation goals, it will require $30 billion USD.22  

Necessary Changes

North Korea has taken steps to reduce its emissions, improve upon its disaster preparedness capabilities, and reforest its land. However, North Korea is a highly cash-strapped nation with high poverty, food insecurity, and debt, needing international monetary support in order to accomplish many of its NDC goals. On the national level, it is necessary that North Korea diversifies its trading partners and becomes established in the international market in order to reduce its vulnerable position of dependence on China and ongoing food insecurity issues. Moreover, North Korea is also guilty of multiple human right violations (e.g., through its military camps known as kwansilo) and impeding upon basic liberties including freedom of expression, public assembly, association, and religion. Furthermore, the prevalence of compulsory and unpaid labor persists as a common practice in society, particularly in the construction of public infrastructure projects. The consolidation of operational decision-making concerning crop yields has also left North Korean farmers devoid of power or autonomy. However, most relevant are restrictions on movement that make it illegal to move internally from province to province, or abroad, without prior approval from the North Korean government.23 In response, it is important that North Korea recognizes and implements comprehensive human right law reform into its legislation as well as enacting a democratic economy providing effective participation and rights to its frontline workers. In general, with international support, intentional internal reform, and a democratic economy, North Korea can make progress towards a just transition.