Kenya: A Brief Introduction 

Kenya, while considered a lower middle-income country, has the largest economy in East Africa,1 with a population of nearly 53 million.2 The country is divided into two major regions: the lowlands, which includes the coastal and Lake Basin areas, and the highlands, which comprises much of both sides of the Great Rift Valley. Over 88 percent of Kenya’s land area is arid and semi-arid,3 with poor infrastructure and other developmental challenges, leaving less than 12 percent of the land area to support over 80 percent of the population. The Kenyan economy relies on climate-sensitive sectors, including rain-fed agriculture, water, tourism, energy, and wildlife, whose vulnerability is increased by the climate crisis.4 Due to increased intensities and magnitudes of climate-related risks, communities face aggravated conflicts over natural resources.5 As a result, the country frequently must reallocate development resources to address climate-related emergencies. 

Mapping Major Climate Events & Climate-Induced Displacement

The increasing intensity of flooding and prolonged drought occurrences are the main climate hazards in Kenya, negatively impacting lives and livelihoods. In 2020, heavy rains causing floods and landslides led to the loss of human lives in Kenya, displacing more than 254,0006 people while destroying roads and infrastructure, 8,000 acres of farmland, and increased disease outbreaks.7 In response to the flood impacts, the Kenya Red Cross Society, UNICEF, and United Nations allocated millions in funds, though continued finance is necessary to support the most impacted communities.8 Droughts also cause large-scale disasters destroying incomes, particularly for farmers and pastoralists. As a result of rising droughts, there is an accompanying growth of pastoralist rural-urban migration, which triggers local conflicts over scarce resources such as water and land.9 In addition to flooding and droughts, sea-level rise is already affecting coastal communities, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu, and is expected to impact up to 86,000 people per year and lead to coastal erosion, a loss of coastal wetlands, and saltwater intrusion.10

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Over the past decade, Kenya has experienced successive impacts of climate change resulting in significant socio-economic losses estimated at 3-5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product annually and impeding development efforts.10 In 2021, worsening drought significantly hampered crop production and damaged livestock, leaving nearly 2.4 million people in the arid and semi-arid region food insecure, including around 368,000 people in emergency levels of hunger.11 Along with food insecurity, Kenya is one of the most water-scarce areas in Africa due to drought and erratic rainfall patterns.12 Because water is often considered women’s responsibility, water scarcity will disproportionately impact women in Kenya.13 Moreover, human health faces significant risks, including geographic expansion of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases, increased waterborne diseases, and the nutrition implications of food shortages due to longer drier spells.14  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Despite the country’s negligible contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions (less than 0.1 percent in 2019) and facing disproportionate climate impacts, Kenya was one of the first countries in Africa to enact a comprehensive law and policy to guide national and subnational climate action. In support of adaptation and mitigation efforts and to increase its resilience to climate change, Kenya has enacted the National Climate Change Action Plan 2018 – 202212 that builds on the first action plan (2013-2017), sets out actions to implement the Climate Change Act (2016),15 and provides a framework for Kenya to deliver on its Updated Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement. To effectively implement its mitigation and adaptation measures, Kenya requires $62 billion and significant international support in the form of finance, technology development, and capacity-building.9 In addition to climate policy, Kenya implemented a National Policy on the Prevention of Internal Displacement, Protection, and Assistance to Internally Displaced Persons that recognizes the effects of climate change on internal displacement – a significant step in protecting climate displaced populations.16  

Necessary Changes 

While Kenya recently enhanced its NDC emissions reduction target, the country can set its sights significantly higher. The Kenya Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources identified potential emission reductions equivalent to a 60 percent reduction below BAU by 2030,12 indicating that Kenya has a much greater scope to increase its conditional target.17 To bolster its GHG reduction target and forego Kenya’s planned development of fossil fuel resources, the country will need significant international support to continue developing its abundant renewable energy resources. In addition to augmenting national and regional finance, it is critical to continue mobilizing funding for locally-led climate action, as seen in Kenya’s recent Financing Locally Led Climate Action Program. By incorporating communities, Kenya can realize transformative, locally impactful climate action.18