Jordan
Introduction to Jordan
Jordan, a small, desert-covered country in the Middle East, has a population of 11.4 million1 , of which only 8% is rural.2 Located in the eastern Mediterranean, Jordan has two central climatic regions: a Mediterranean, semi-arid climate in the west and a hot desert climate in the south and east.3 This diverse geographical location makes Jordan extremely vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis, including water scarcity, rising temperatures, droughts, heat waves, and floods.4 Due to the inhospitable desert conditions in the east, more than 80% of the country’s territory is unpopulated,5 with over 90% of the population living in the major urban centers in the northwest.6 Although Jordan does not have rich oil and gas deposits and is one of the smaller economies in the Middle East, its economic growth has been steady with rising trade, tourism, and remittances.7 However, this growth has been slow, with its population more than doubling while GDP has only grown 2-3% annually. In 2022, Jordan’s service and industrial sectors contributed 67% and 29% of GDP, respectively, followed by agriculture at 5%.8 However, it still faces several economic challenges since its unemployment rate is nearly 23%, government debt is 114% of GDP, and heavy foreign aid and assistance are required to maintain basic necessities.9 Jordan is also heavily affected by the Syrian and Palestinian refugee crisis, currently hosting over 730,000 refugees and having the second-highest number of refugees per capita in the world,10 with refugees making up almost 7% of Jordan’s population.11 Additionally, over 2 million registered Palestinian refugees reside in the country, most of whom have received full citizenship status.12
Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement
Jordan is highly vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis and is ranked among the top 50 countries on the Climate Vulnerability Index ranking.13
Heat-related fatalities are expected to almost double, jumping from 1 death per 100,000 people in 2000 to nearly 1.8 deaths per 100,000 in 2030, while the annual number of “very hot days” is expected to rise by 15 to 26 days with high certainty by 2030; this increase will be most prominent in the more populous, northwestern part of the country.8
Drought frequency is projected to rise, with the Yarmouk River—which provides 40% of Jordan’s entire water supply—expected to decline in water capacity by 51-75%.14
Currently ranked the second most water-stressed country in the world, water stress levels are expected to continue rising by 1% to 1.5% until 2100, putting 90% of low-income Jordanian households in critical vulnerability.15
Further, with the combination of Jordan’s rapid population growth and the massive influx of refugees, water demand has skyrocketed, and the already stressed water supply is being used twice as quickly as it can be replenished,16
causing a projected 40% of Jordan’s groundwater basins to be depleted by 2030.14
The baseline for the absolute water scarcity threshold in the world is 500 m^3 per capita per year. In comparison, Jordan has only 97 m^3 per capita per year,17
projected to drop to 60 m^3 by 2040.18
Flooding is also a severe threat to Jordan, as seen with the 2018 flash floods in the famous historical site of Petra. The floods filled the old city and led to a fast-flowing river that resulted in 12 deaths and forced 4,000 tourists to flee, while infrastructure was heavily damaged.19
Just two weeks prior to this incident, there was another flash flood near the Dead Sea, where 18 people—mostly children—were swept away and killed.20
This illustrates the raging impacts of the climate crisis, as the dry Middle East has been experiencing floods more frequently than ever before, and the desert infrastructure has not been able to overcome such challenges. In 2020, there were 138 recorded displacements due to floods and storms, with this number expected to rise in frequency as the climate crisis worsens.14
In Jordan, rural, lower-income individuals and refugees are disproportionately affected by the climate crisis. With many refugees residing in poor living conditions in camps and having limited access to water and food resources, 89% of refugees are considered to have food insecurity, while 62% are considered highly vulnerable;21
this can be illustrated by the 2013 floods that destroyed significant infrastructure and shelters at Zaatari refugee camp.14
Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis
The GDP of Jordan is $50.8 billion,22
while the GDP per capita is $4,482.23
Although agriculture only makes up 5% of Jordan’s total GDP, poor water management by farmers has led to over 50% of the country’s entire freshwater supply being used in agriculture, causing a projected 1.2% reduction in annual agricultural Gross Value Added.24
Due to temperature increases, essential crops like wheat and barley are expected to see yield declines of up to 21% and 35%, respectively.14
Approximately eighty thousand families are also employed in the olive cultivation sector, but the climate crisis is expected to reduce Jordan’s olive yields by 20%, threatening economic stability in agricultural communities.25
Climate impacts like droughts and floods can significantly reduce crop yields, potentially shrinking Jordan's GDP by almost $2.6 billion and affecting the quarter of the population that works in the agricultural sector.24
For example, due to increased operational costs and complexity, water scarcity alone is expected to impact 20% to 25% of Jordan’s GDP.26
Since the service sector makes up 67% of Jordan’s GDP and employs 70% of the labor force, the water shortage is expected to decrease service output by up to 4.1%, causing a loss of $1.2 billion.24
Tourism, a sector that makes up 5% of GDP, has been down by 20% since the pandemic and continues to remain under pressure with water shortages.27
Over half of all Jordanians have already reported that the climate crisis has negatively affected their income across such sectors.28
Additionally, due to low natural resources, Jordan imports over 96% of their energy needs at an approximate rate of $3.5 billion annually, which can have severe implications as the climate crisis exacerbates the risks associated with this dependency.29
Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways
Despite being responsible for only 0.08% of global GHG emissions,30
Jordan continues to work towards reducing its emissions and mitigating the damages of the climate crisis. Domestically, Jordan has unconditionally pledged to reduce its total GHG emissions by 5%, with a conditional target of a 31% reduction contingent on international funding.31
In the energy sector, Jordan has succeeded in producing 29% of its electricity from renewable sources with a goal of reaching 50% by 2030.29
This efficiency is even seen in the refugee camps, with the Azraq refugee camp being the first in the world to be entirely powered by renewable energy and the Zaatari refugee camp having the largest solar plant ever built on a refugee camp,14
saving the UNHCR almost $12.5 million per year and reducing total carbon emissions by 12,000 tons.32
Due to its favorable tax and consumption policies, Jordan was among the first countries in the region to have widespread implementation of hybrid and electric vehicles, making up 18.5% of all vehicles.33
The country has also developed new strategies to rapidly expand green infrastructure in urban centers, increase the planting of native trees, implement community-based farming in refugee camps, and shift behaviors in water usage.34
Although water management remains a significant problem, in 2020, over 9,000 Jordanian water sector personnel were trained to help promote behavioral change in water usage.35
In 2022, a national long-term plan was introduced to try and reduce overall water losses to less than 25% by 2040 through new water usage, protection, and treatment strategies.36
Necessary Changes
Although Jordan has already taken several preemptive measures to address the climate crisis, there are still several areas in which its efforts can be further enhanced to adapt to the future. Water management lies at the top of this list, as despite being a highly water-stressed country, water use is still heavily subsidized, with 47% of water prices being covered by the government.24 These subsidies need to be gradually removed with the intention of ultimate elimination to encourage more efficient water practices among Jordanians. Water infrastructure must also be improved, as almost half of all water is lost through leaky pipes, theft, under-billing, and inaccurate metering, causing high financial losses and threatening water sustainability.37 Some alternative sources to expand the water supply and reduce water stress include mass rainwater harvesting and more efficient wastewater treatment.33 In reference to agriculture and food security, the country must develop and implement an agriculture resilience plan that aligns with their NDCs, fostering a sustainable environment for economic development. A more efficient disaster response framework must also be developed and implemented for potential heat waves and future flooding. However, to embark on a journey to alleviate the severity of these climate-related impacts, Jordan requires at least $7.5 billion, highlighting the need for international support and swift domestic efforts that take into account the country’s most marginalized communities.38
Citations
- 1 “Population, total – Jordan,” The World Bank, November 15, 2024,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=JO. - 2“Rural Population, total – Jordan,” The World Bank, accessed November 15, 2024,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=JO. - 3“Climate Change Knowledge Portal – Jordan,” The World Bank, accessed November 16, 2024,
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/jordan/climate-dat…; - 4“Jordan,” Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, accessed November 16, 2024,
https://www.climatecentre.org/wp-content/uploads/RCCC-Country-profiles-…. - 5Ibid (i): 3
- 6“Climate Risk Profile Jordan,” Weathering Risk, accessed November 16, 2024,
https://weatheringrisk.org/sites/default/files/document/Climate_Risk_Pr…. - 7“The World Bank In Jordan,” The World Bank, accessed November 15, 2024,
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/jordan/publication/jordan-economic…. - 8 a b Ibid (ii): 6
- 9“Jordan - Country Commercial Guide,” ITA, accessed November 16, 2024, https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/jordan-market-overview.
- 10 “Jordan,” UNHCR, accessed November 16, 2024,
https://www.unhcr.org/us/countries/jordan. - 11 “Jordan,” ILO, accessed November 16, 2024.
https://www.ilo.org/projects-and-partnerships/projects/partnership-impr…. - 12“Where We Work - Jordan,” UNRWA, accessed November 16, 2024,
https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/jordan. - 13 “Jordan - Climate Promise,” UNDP, accessed November 18, 2024,
https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/jordan#:~:text…. - 14 a b c d e f Ibid (iii): 4
- 15“Water Stress in Jordan - Executive Summary,” UNICEF, accessed November 16, 2024,
https://www.unicef.org/jordan/water-stress-jordan-executive-summary. - 16“Jordan - Water Resources & Environment,” USAID, accessed November 16, 2024,
https://www.usaid.gov/jordan/water-resources-environment#:~:text=Jordan…. - 17“Estimated 1.6 million People in Jordan to Benefit from New Project to Tackle Jordan’s Water Crisis and Build Climate Resilience,” The World Bank, accessed November 17, 2024,
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/06/18/estimated-1-…. - 18“Jordan - Country Commercial Guide,” ITA,
- 19 “Jordan rains and floods kill 12, force tourists to flee Petra,” Al Jazeera, accessed November 17, 2024,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/10/jordan-rains-and-floods-kill-…. - 20 “Flash flood in Jordan sweeps away school bus, killing at least 18,” The Guardian, accessed November 17, 2024,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/25/flash-flood-in-jordan-swe…. - 21“Climate Change Vulnerability Among Refugees in Jordan,” ISDC, accessed November 17, 2024,
https://isdc.org/projects/climate-change-vulnerability-among-refugees-i…. - 22“GDP (current US$) - Jordan,” The World Bank, accessed November 17, 2024,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=JO. - 23“GDP per capita (current US$) - Jordan,” The World Bank, accessed November 17, 2024
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=JO. - 24 a b c d Ibid (iiii): 16
- 25“Vulnerability and Governance in the Context of Climate Change in Jordan,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, accessed November 18, 2024,
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/05/jordan-climate-change-ad…. - 26“Water Stress in Jordan - Executive Summary,” UNICEF.
- 27 “Water Stress in Jordan - Executive Summary,” UNICEF.
- 28“EIB Climate Survey: 81% of Jordanian respondents say climate change is already affecting their everyday life,” European Investment Bank, accessed November 17, 2024,
https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2023-008-81-of-jordanian-respondents-s…. - 29 a b “Constructing climate change rentierism in Jordan,” Environmental Politics Journal.
- 30“Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Jordan,” Emissions Index, accessed November 18, 2024,
https://www.emission-index.com/countries/jordan#:~:text=What%20percenta…. - 31“IGES NDC Database,” Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, accessed November 18, 2024,
https://www.iges.or.jp/en/pub/iges-indc-ndc-database/en. - 32"Harnessing the Power of Renewables in Refugee Camps,” IRENA, accessed November 18, 2024,
https://www.irena.org/News/articles/2018/Aug/Harnessing-the-power-of-re…. - 33 a b Ibid (V): 30
- 34 Ibid
- 35“Jordan - Water Resources & Environment,” USAID.
- 36“Jordan - Environment and Water Sector,” ITA, accessed November 18, 2024,
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/jordan-environment-and-…. - 37“Jordan - Environment and Water Sector,” ITA.
- 38Ibid.