Introduction to Jamaica

Jamaica, a small Caribbean island nation, has a population of 2.84 million,1 of which 43% is rural.2 Jamaica experiences a split climate zone, with the western portion having a tropical monsoon climate while the eastern portion has a tropical rainforest climate.3 The country regularly experiences extreme weather events like hurricanes, flooding, storm surges, and rising sea levels.4 This proves extremely consequential to Jamaica’s population distribution and economic abilities, as nearly 70% of the population and 50% of financial assets and infrastructure are concentrated in coastal areas most vulnerable to the climate crisis.5 With little innovation and capital movement, Jamaica ranks among the slowest-growing economies in Latin America and the Caribbean due to its limited economic diversification and low job quality,6 as well as high rates of corruption and public debt.7 The service and industry sectors comprise 60.1% and 18.6% of GDP, while the agriculture sector accounts for 9%.8 The country also has high rates of food insecurity, with 33% of households not having access to sufficient food and 67% of households reporting some form of hunger.9 Jamaica’s population is predominantly of African descent, at 76.3%, followed by 15.1% Afro-European, 3.4% Indian, and 3.2% White.10

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Jamaica is extremely vulnerable to the climate crisis, ranking 47th on the 2023 Inform Risk Index11 and being identified as the third most exposed country to multiple hazards.12 With a large proportion of the country’s population and infrastructure located near the limited coastal plain areas, 96.3% of the national population and 94.9% of domestic territory are at risk for two or more hazards.13 Further, the capital, Kingston, houses 26% of the total population and has high levels of unplanned settlements, squatter communities, and poor waste management practices—resulting in the national hub being especially susceptible to any climate shocks that occur.14 The climate crisis has already had significant impacts on the country, as between 2008 and 2023, such extreme weather events have resulted in over 11,000 internal displacements.15 As a small island developing state, Jamaica is also particularly affected by the threat of rising sea levels, where it has experienced an annual increase of 3.3 millimeters, which is slightly higher than the rise in global mean sea level (GMSL).16 These repercussions are only expected to worsen as climate models predict an increased frequency of heat, droughts, and intensity of storms and hurricanes.17 By the end of the century, Jamaica is expected to be 21% drier than current numbers, experiencing up to an 11% increase in wind speeds, up to a 30% increase in rainfall rates, and an 80% increase in the frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes.18  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Jamaica is $19.42 billion,19 while the GDP per capita is $6,839.20 Although Jamaica’s economy has recently seen positive growth, it is extremely vulnerable to the shocks of the climate crisis, as nearly 96.3% of GDP is exposed to two or more hazards—ranking second globally.21 Further, there is a 1% probability that in any given year, fiscal losses would exceed $1.729 billion due to climate events.17 As of 2017, there was a loss of 7% of Jamaican GDP due to natural disasters.22 The largest source of these economic impacts comes from hurricanes and storms, as seen with Hurricanes Ivan and Dean, which caused nearly $580 million and $329 million worth of damage, respectively.17 In 2010, tropical storm Nicole caused $239 million in damages, while Hurricane Beryl caused nearly $67 million in damages in 2024.23 These events result in a snowball effect, where inflation spikes due to the impact on food and utilities,24 tourism is heavily affected, and agricultural productivity halts.25 Tourism comprises nearly 20% of Jamaica’s GDP, where negative consequences of the climate crisis result in less viability of tourism-related assets and unplanned expenses for visitors, decreasing potential tourism revenue.26 Additionally, high-yield crops like coffee, citrus, and sugar cane become extremely vulnerable with the coming of the climate crisis, as there are less sustainable water resources and more seawater intrusion.27 This led to nearly $14.5 million in losses between 1994 and 201028 and has the potential to cause widespread job loss for the 18% of the labor workforce that works in the agriculture sector.29 With Jamaica’s large fishing and tourism industry, the climate crisis is also expected to significantly impact seaports and airports, as many are located on wetlands and other low-lying areas; this can cause massive implications for trade and supply chain operations.30

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Despite being responsible for less than 0.02% of global GHG emissions, Jamaica continues to face extreme vulnerability to the climate crisis.31 Towards domestic mitigation, Jamaica has unconditionally pledged to reduce its emissions by 25.4% by 2030, which is a significant increase from its initial goal of 7.8%.32 If the country receives international support and assistance, this emissions reduction target rises to 28.5%.33 Although renewable sources only make up 11% of energy consumption currently, Jamaica targets to have 30% of its energy production become renewable by 2030.34 Further, the country has successfully decoupled its economic growth with resource use; while the national GDP grew by 300% between 1990 and 2015, the material footprint only subsequently rose by 40%.35 The island has also created its Vision 2030 Jamaica, which is a strategic, sustainable development plan based on social, economic, and environmental factors.17 It provides support tools and guidance, road maps for achieving climate objectives, and outlines where most emission reductions will come from—80% of cuts are expected to come from transitioning to renewable energy sources.36 Under its Long-Term Emissions Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS), by 2050, Jamaica aims to make EV shares account for 67% of all automobiles, increase mangrove cover by 4,000 hectares, and annually increase forest cover by 150 hectares.37

Necessary Changes

Although Jamaica is on a positive track for its sustainability goals, it must continue to identify and implement new adaptations for its future as the climate crisis continues to impact the country. The most crucial change should be implemented in the energy sector, as over 85% of current electric production is from fossil fuels, and the island continues to import high levels of oil from foreign countries.17 Deforestation is another pressing issue, as over 75% of the island’s original forest cover has been lost through primarily bauxite mining; just between 2002 and 2023, over 19% of the island’s tree cover was lost.38 This reduces carbon sinks, exacerbates soil erosion, and makes the land more susceptible to natural disasters, highlighting the immediate need to restrain deforestation.39 Agricultural adaptation is also key for agriculture-reliant countries as rising sea levels, uneven precipitation, and droughts become more common. These issues can be addressed through diversifying crop production systems, value-chain development, and more efficient irrigation techniques.40 Jamaica must also address its weak national sanitation and general pollution levels, as nearly 80% of sewage treatment facilities fall under non-compliant levels, with an estimated per capita waste generation increase of 1.2 to 1.5 kg/day.17 Furthermore, the Jamaican central government, local governments, and the public sector are not coordinated in their strategies, which further leads to delays in mitigation tactics, as seen with the differences between spatial planning for public infrastructure and what is actually implemented.41 Most importantly, although Jamaica has successfully halved its debt obligations from 144 percent of GDP to 72 percent of GDP, cancellation of its current debt levels and opening up more fiscal space are key for the strategic expansion of its current climate adaptation abilities.42