Introduction to Iraq

Iraq is a country situated in Southeast Asia with a population of approximately 40 million,1 of which 29% reside in rural areas.2 Over 40% of the landmass is desert, with the rest split between regions of mountains, rivers, and plains. The Iraqi economy is primarily dependent on fossil fuels as they provide 87% of government revenue meaning its economic health is closely tied to the price of oil. The impacts of the Climate Crisis are severe in Iraq with the United Nations Global Environment Outlook 6 (GEO-6) identifying Iraq as the world’s fifth most vulnerable country to decreasing water and food availability, extreme temperatures, and environmental degradation.3 Additionally, years of internal and external conflicts, particularly since the US-led invasion of Iraq, have damaged irrigation infrastructure, reduced economic resilience, and prevented the adoption of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.4  

Mapping Climate Events & Climate-Induced Displacement

Iraq is facing a multitude of crises including dust storms, soaring temperatures, flooding, and devastating droughts. Decreased rainfall and a shortage of water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers combined with increased temperatures threaten to upend the economic livelihoods of many rural Iraqis. In the 2019-2020 harvest alone roughly 37% of Iraqi wheat farmers and 30% of barely farmers, the two most important crops in Iraq, reported crop failure of at least 90 percent of expected harvest.5 In one report the number of climate displaced persons between 2018-2023 in southern Iraq alone surpassed 73,000 people.6 Continued crop failure and food insecurity threatens to displace thousands more in Iraq and increase instability in the socio-political system.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

According to the World Bank the current GDP of Iraq is $207.9 billion with a GDP per capita of $4775.7 The government is attempting to transition away from their oil dependent economic system as the world economy transitions away from fossil fuels but political deadlock and cyclical violence make progress difficult.8 Drought, land degradation, and increased salinity of water resources due to the climate crisis threaten the vital agriculture, livestock herding, and fishing industries. Without any climate adaptation efforts the decreases in rainfall could lead to a 3.9 percent reduction in GDP and further displacement across Iraq.9 Additionally, climate stress tends to amplify existing social and political divisions and could lead to conflicts within Iraq that devastate civilians and their livelihoods.  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Iraq’s Nationally Determined Contribution set targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15% below business-as-usual (BAU) emissions by 2035. Out of the 15%, 2% will be conditional and an additional 13% will be achieved through the unconditional target. The country’s mitigation strategies consist of tackling gas flaring, introducing low carbon technologies in industries, and reducing agricultural degradation and waste. In 2020, Iraq began developing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) with the assistance of the UN Environment Program and funded by the Green Climate Fund to develop a strategy for adapting to the climate crisis.10

Necessary Changes

Iraq already has a pathway to identify and act upon mitigation and adaptation strategies with international partners such as the UN Environment Program. Now, it is necessary for the country and international community to mobilize the necessary political support and transparency on the implementation, efficacy, and funding of planned projects and future strategies. Iraq’s political inefficiencies, geopolitical environment, and legacy of contemporary conflict threaten to prevent meaningful climate mitigation and adaptation measures. The country  must develop the necessary political tools to ensure climate initiatives receive adequate funding while providing assistance to those displaced or rendered economically insecure by the climate crisis. The international community must assist Iraq by strengthening human security that has eroded in the wake of multiple conflicts over the past decades. UN bodies, international organizations, neighboring states, and major nations need to invest in Iraq through a human needs lens rather than a geopolitical one, financial, political, and technical support. Internationally-backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground to ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition, and also help bolster the participation of directly impacted local communities in decision-making. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, Iraq and its mitigation and adaptation policies can also be sustained and expanded.