Introduction to Indonesia

Indonesia, an archipelagic state with a population of more than 273 million, is the fourth most populous country in the world.1 Currently 60% of the country’s population live in vulnerable coastal zones, including low elevation urban settlements.2 With a GDP per capita of $4,332.73 , Indonesia's economy is the largest in Southeast Asia and diversified across manufacturing, agriculture, wholesale trade, construction and mining. Indonesia has a predominantly tropical rainforest climate, with some of the southern islands experiencing tropical monsoon and savanna weather patterns.4 Home to the third largest tropical rainforest in the world, 49.1%5 of the country’s land area is forest and responsible for the livelihood of 50-60 million6 citizens. Indonesia is the world's largest palm oil producer, which contributes 4.5% to its GDP and employs 3 million people but is a major driver of deforestation in the nation. A heavily natural resource dependent economy, Indonesia is one of the world’s top five producers7 and exporters8 of coal, and the hydrocarbon is used for generating 60%9 of the country’s electricity. The extractive industries shaping the Indonesian economy today, and particularly the coal-dependent centralized energy systems as well as Indonesia’s current occupation of resource-rich West Papua New Guinea, are rooted in the colonial period, during which European powers concentrated their influence to rule, own and manage the natural resources in the archipelago.10

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Indonesia is extremely vulnerable to the climate crisis, with high risks of floods, landslides, droughts, and forest fires, as well as inundation due to sea level rise. The eastern and western regions of the most densely populated island, Java, are hotspots for multiple extreme weather events. Between 2008 and 2021, 4.2 million people have been internally displaced in Indonesia as a result of flooding.11 In 2019 alone, 928,887 Indonesians were affected by flood, while in 2020, the number stood at 887,964.12 Millions of Indonesians are concentrated in highly vulnerable areas due to rapid urbanization and population growth. When unprecedented intense rain, the highest levels since record keeping started, came down in a relentless onslaught on Jakarta in 2020, the resulting floods displaced 397,000 people in the capital city.13 In an impact assessment of 2021 flood-related displacement in the same region, it was found that 41% of the people affected were displaced twice, while 14% were displaced thrice, with displaced respondents earning on average one third less than the non-displaced respondents’ income.14 These climate hazards are only expected to intensify and continue devastating the most economically vulnerable communities across the Southeast Asian archipelago.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Indonesia is $1.186 trillion and the country has observed a decline3 in poverty headcount ratio at $2.15 a day from 43.6% in 2000 to 3.5% in 2021. However, the increasingly severe climate hazards threaten to drastically reverse the socio-economic progress made in recent decades. Sea level rise is of grave concern for the archipelagic nation as 42 million Indonesians live within 10 m above the sea level.12 Coastal flood hazards as well as fluvial flood risks, due to overflowing rivers and poor drainage capacity, disproportionately affect Indonesia’s low-income and vulnerable population living in dense urban settlements along risky riverbanks. The agriculture sector of the country, which is the largest field of employment in Indonesia supporting the livelihood of 29%15 of its working population, is confronting a severe crisis due to extreme weather events aggravated by climate change. Between 2015 and 2019, drought and flood conditions damaged 9.61% of the total cropland area in Indonesia resulting in the loss of 3,923,588 tons per year of rainfed crops, and affecting 19.62 million people.16 Moreover, the sector is expected to undergo IDR 19.94 trillion17 of potential economic losses in 2024 from climate change impacts.

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

As the fourth most populous country in the world, Indonesia makes up for 3.47%3 of the global population and is responsible for 0.86%18 of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry make up 63% of the country’s total GHG emission.19 Vestiges of the colonial legacy of the Cultivation System, established by the Dutch government for its Dutch East Indies colony, now Indonesia, persist in the region through plantation expansion practices that are contingent on forest depletion and exploitation of natural resources.20 By employing a multi-sectoral, landscape approach combining terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems,21 Indonesia is now attempting to cut down extractive practices that are harmful for both nature and its people. In 2022, Indonesia’s Environment and Forestry Ministry launched the Net Sink 2030 Operation Plan to achieve net zero deforestation by 203022 , and made strides towards scaling down deforestation23 by governing palm oil supply chains through zero-deforestation commitments. As part of the Paris Agreement, the country has made a commitment to bring down its greenhouse gas emissions between 2020 and 2030, setting an unconditional emission reduction target of 29% and a conditional target of 41% relative to the 2030 business as usual scenario.24 The priority adaptation programs identified in Indonesia's National Adaptation Plan include protection of vulnerable coastal areas, management of crop production in affected areas, and development of drought resilience.25

Necessary Changes

For Indonesia, adaptation is not an option but the only way forward. Due to sea level rise, a quarter of the capital of Jakarta is in danger of being submerged and as such, the Indonesian government is planning to relocate to a new capital.26 With the capital of the Southeast Asian nation gradually sinking, it is a jarring reminder of the extreme climatically-changed reality that developing economies are enduring and having to adapt to. At the same time, the colonial legacy of environmental destruction and resource extraction left behind by European powers only exacerbates the destructive impacts of climate change. It is now necessary for Indonesia to revoke authorizations for new coal power plant development27 and scale down the country’s reliance on oil. This approach may subsequently alleviate the pressure of natural resource extraction that shaped Indonesia’s occupation of oil and mineral-rich West Papua New Guinea. There is also a critical need to decrease Indonesia's dependency on palm oil, which is a major driver of deforestation, and ensure the economic and climate resilience of smallholder farmers through crop diversification. The exacerbating impacts of climate change on the archipelago, with rising sea level threatening the lives and livelihood of Indonesia’s most vulnerable population, highlight the pressing need for a just transition.