Introduction to Honduras

Honduras is a coastal nation located in Central America, with a population of 10.4 million,1 of which 40% is rural.2  The country's climate zones vary by geography, with coastal regions characterized by tropical monsoon and rainforest climates, while mountainous areas exhibit a tropical savanna climate.3 With an extensive coastline along the Caribbean Sea to the North and the Pacific Ocean to the South, Honduras faces severe threats from hurricanes and floods. The agriculture sector, employing 25% of the working population4 and contributing 12.6% to the country's GDP,5 is at risk due to the worsening impacts of climate change. Honduras is one of the largest coffee producers in Central America, and the industry is a significant contributor to the country’s economy, accounting for 14.6% of its export revenue.6 With almost 60% of its territory covered by forests, Honduras faces the highest deforestation rate in Latin America, averaging a 2.2% annual loss between 2000 and 2015.7 Illegal logging, agricultural expansion, oil palm plantations, mining, cattle ranching, and fuelwood collection is driving deforestation in the country. Honduras is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for environmental human rights defenders, with 14 activists killed in 2019 and the indigenous communities disproportionately bearing the devastating toll of violent resource extraction.8

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Honduras is moderately vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 79 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.9 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are flood, strom, and drought, which account for over 75% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.10 Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 3 years of storms with the number increasing to 7 between 2001 and 2020.11 Rising sea levels, increased frequency of hurricanes, and food insecurity caused by shifting weather patterns have forced many Hondurans to migrate internally to seek safer and more stable living conditions. Between 2008 and 2022, 56 disaster events were reported in Honduras, amongst which storms and floods combined displaced about 1.1 million people.12 In November 2020, hurricanes Eta and Iota devastated large swathes of Honduras, affecting about 4.7 million people, almost half of the population.13 Numerous communities across Honduras are confronted with the compounded challenges arising from climate change, mining activities, the construction of hydro-electric dams, widespread deforestation, and the expansive influence of large-scale agro-industries. This convergence of factors is amplifying the hardships faced by the most vulnerable Honduran populations, pushing them to migrate in search of more sustainable and secure living conditions.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Honduras is US$ 31.72 billion,14 with more than 48 percent of its population living below the national poverty line and 32% of the urban population residing in congested, informal settlements. The projected rise in both the frequency and severity of storms in Honduras poses a significant threat to these vulnerable communities, lacking the resources to enhance their adaptive capacity. The rural poor in the southern and western regions, known as the Dry Corridor, heavily rely on rainfed agriculture as their primary livelihood, leading to recurring issues of food insecurity.10 In 2020, the hurricanes Eta and Iota resulted in an estimated impact of US$2.1 billion, with damages comprising 44%, losses at 52%, and additional costs making up 4%.15 Amidst the nation's recovery, Honduras faced another blow from the destructive hurricane Julia in 2022, leaving numerous communities stranded for days. Without climate change measures, the country's economy could face significant adverse impacts, with floods, windstorms, and earthquakes potentially causing an annual GDP loss of 5.4 percent by 2050.16 As a consequence, the number of poor individuals will increase from 3.9 million in 2019 to 5.3 million by 2050, consequently exposing more people to climate change risks.17

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Honduras, constituting 0.13 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.02 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.18 Honduras pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 16 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.19 These outlined initiatives encompass advancements across diverse sectors, spanning biodiversity, water resources, and energy, with the goal of creating employment opportunities in the green sector. Identified areas for adaptation and resilience efforts include agriculture, biodiversity and ecosystem, infrastructure, and water. In 2022, Honduras committed to no longer grant environmental permits for open-pit mining, effectively banning the extractive activity, and citing threats to natural resources, public health, and the right to water.20 This decision aims to prevent the disastrous consequences associated with open-pit mining, including the destruction of the ecosystem through vegetation clearance and soil displacement.

Necessary Changes

Honduras is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. It is now critical for the global community to support Honduras in a just transition that is inclusive of its underserved, low-income, and at-risk communities. Considering the extreme and imminent threats confronting indigenous communities and environmental human rights defenders in Honduras, it is imperative to bolster existing legal frameworks and establish comprehensive initiatives. These measures should be designed to provide robust protection for the lives and fundamental rights of environmental human rights defenders, as well as the well-being of the country's indigenous populations. In crafting adaptation and mitigation policies, it is essential to recognize and address the varied impacts of climate change on Honduras’ marginalized groups. With a significant number of the population working in the agriculture sector, which is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, there is a pressing need to promote agricultural resilience and productivity. This involves integrating sustainable landscape practices to simultaneously enhance environmental sustainability and bolster the livelihoods of vulnerable populations. To achieve this, it becomes essential to explore opportunities for locally-led climate action, ensuring that the distinctive needs and perspectives of excluded communities are considered and integrated into the planning and implementation of climate action.