Guinea-Bissau: A Brief Introduction

Guinea-Bissau is a coastal country in Western Africa and located in the intertropical convergence climate zone. To the west, the country borders the Atlantic Ocean and has an adjacent insular part known as Bijagós archipelago with 88 small islands. Its population is 2.1 million1 and is about 55% rural.2 Around 65%3 of the population lives below the poverty line, the life expectancy is 60 years old,4 42% of the population is below 15 years old,5 and chronic malnutrition exists at a rate of 28%3 of the population. In terms of its climate, Guinea-Bissau consists of a primarily tropical savanna climate as it lies in between the Tropic of Cancer and the equator and a primarily humid region in the coastal and southern areas of the country. From May to November, Guinea-Bissau experiences a significant rainy, hot season and between the months November to April, a hot, arid season.6 Based on most recent data, 50% of Guinea-Bissau’s GDP is composed of agriculture, 13.1% by industry, and 36.9% by the services sector.7 In terms of the agricultural industry, 85% of the population is reliant on agriculture as a source of income and 98% of exported goods are accounted for by agricultural products.8 The backbone of Guinea-Bissau’s exports is the production of cashews which represents 90% of Guinea-Bissau’s exports9 and rice remains Guinea-Bissau’s main staple crop.10 Since its independence from Portugal in 1974, Guinea-Bissau has experienced a fragile political atmosphere with 4 successful coups and 17 attempted coups.11 As  a result of its colonial past, narrow exports, and political instability, Guinea-Bisseau is extremely vulnerable to factors including price shocks, climate-related disasters, and inflation.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Guinea-Bissau currently ranks 76 out of 191 countries in the 2024 Risk Inform Index and has a notable ranking of 6 out of 191 countries in terms of Lack of Coping Capacity.12 Currently, a majority of Guinea-Bissau’s population lives on the coast13 and among those who live on the coast, 70% of this population is vulnerable to sea level rise.14 Moreover, Guinea-Bissau has a high ratio of shoreline to land area and remains one of the most vulnerable countries in Africa to flooding.15 Flooding has remained Guinea-Bissau’s main climate-related disaster that has increased in intensity over the past two decades. For example, between 2008 to 2014, two reported flooding disaster events led to 2,800 internally displaced people. This increased between 2015 to 2022 as two more flooding disaster events led to over 4,100 internal displacements.16 A recent example of climate-related disasters include June 2018 where a storm and strong winds of 80 km to 120 km/h led to 11,541 people affected, 420 houses in the capital city Bissau destroyed, and 800 displacements.17

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Guinea-Bissau is $1.63 billion USD.18 As the largest and most fragile sector of Guinea-Bissau’s economy, the agricultural sector has experienced significant short term climate impacts. This includes rainfall variability that has affected crop production as well as rising temperatures that have threatened crucial water resources.19 For example, reports from 2003, 2004, and 2005 from the World Bank estimated severe flooding in the Eastern regions of Guinea-Bissau had affected bridges, destroyed housing, led to displacement, and damaged more than 63 hectares of land related to food production.20 Within Guinea-Bissau’s community of Djobel, remote sensing data over 7 decades revealed a loss of crucial swamp rice field land at an annual loss of 2.4%, mangrove restoration at a rate of 0.8% yearly, and an overall increase in flooded land or mud by 2.9% yearly.21 Guinea-Bissau’s agricultural industry is also susceptible to long term impacts such as sea level rise and resulting high tides.19 In 2005, as a result of salt-water intrusion and subsequent damage to built water infrastructure, 5 communities within the regions of Bedanda/Cubucaré experienced damage to their paddy rice fields estimated to be around 3,015 ha.22 Another impacted industry is the fisheries sector which contributes 3.3% of GDP.23 While not extensively studied, its expected ocean acidification is likely to affect marine life and availability of fish.5 In West Africa, under the RCP8.5 warming pathway, it is estimated that this region will experience a median GDP per capita loss of 10% or greater by 2050.24

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

At the moment, Guinea-Bissau contributes only 0.09% of emissions, but has made significant commitments to reduce its emissions by 10% under the Business as Usual scenario of the Paris Agreement with a potential for a 30% reduction with international support.25 Moreover, Guinea-Bissau is working on transitioning its electricity grid to renewable energy from 5% to 58% by 2030 with the main investments put into hydroelectricity. Guinea-Bissau has also taken large steps to protect natural ecosystems as it now has 26% of its land protected by the country. Guinea-Bissau is also taking steps to create a reforestation program and strengthen technology on monitoring of forestry within the country. Within the agricultural sector, Guinea-Bissau is working to increase dairy productivity of cows by 10% to reduce methane emissions and improve rice production in terms of water management strategies.5 Regarding migration, Guinea-Bissau has taken steps to implement government employment programs for returnees of migration to reintegrate into the economy. For example, a 2019 program led to the employment of 125 returned migrants and 76 community residents in reforestation and sanitation programs.26 However, Guinea-Bissau lacks specific laws relating to migrant rights, infrastructure for entry and staying in the country, and general processes on applications for asylum seekers.27 In general, in order to meet Guinea-Bissau’s climate mitigation and adaptation goals, it will require $1.2 billion USD in financial support.5

Necessary Changes

Guinea-Bissau has already taken significant steps to reduce its emissions and invest in a just transition. However, due to Guinea-Bissau’s lack of coping capacity, high poverty levels, political instability, and high public debt of over 80%28 in 2022, this negates Guinea-Bissau’s ability to effectively adapt to climate impacts. Therefore, it is necessary for the international community to assist in terms of monetary programs, resources, and debt forgiveness to support Guinea-Bissau. On the national level, it remains imperative for Guinea-Bissau to take urgent action to implement strong migrant policies in terms of protections, rights, and infrastructure to support migrants especially exposed to climate impacts. This is especially urgent as, due to fragile government institutions as well as light border management, Guinea-Bissau remains a hub for sex trafficking and ranks Tier 3 within the 2021 Trafficking in Persons Report.26 Additionally, Guinea-Bissau’s economy is extremely narrow which has placed Guinea-Bissau in a vulnerable position to not only climate-related disasters, but general price shocks. In 2013, Guinea-Bissau experienced a price drop of 63% from 2012 which led to severe food insecurity and higher burden on those in poverty reliant on the cashew industry for their income.29 As a result, it is important for Guinea-Bissau to take adequate measures to diversify its economic output and sectors to decrease the reliance on cashew production. In general, with adequate international support and a just transition involving a democratic economy bolstering frontline laborer voices’, Guinea-Bissau can make more progress in its efforts of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.