Introduction to Guinea

Guinea is a coastal country located in West Africa. Its population is 13.8 million1 and about 62% rural.2 As of 2020, 43.7% of the population lives below the national poverty line,3 21.8% of the population experiences some form of food insecurity,4 and life expectancy has declined to 59 years.5 Overall, Guinea has a tropical savanna climate with a monsoonal-like season of heavier rainfall from June to November and a drier season from December to May.6 The country is rich in natural resources, and the mining sector accounts for 80% of the exports. However, it only contributes to 20% of GDP and 2-3% of government revenue.7 The agricultural sector acts as the main employer as it provides 57% of income for rural households and accounts for 52% of the labor force.8 Moreover, 85% of agricultural productivity is accounted for by subsistence agriculture.9 Its staple food crops include rice, maize, groundnuts, and cassava.10  Guinea has experienced a history of political instability that most recently consisted of a 2021 coup d’état and political clashes between current governmental forces and demonstrators in September of 2023.8 Guinea is therefore an economy based on agricultural production and extraction of its natural resources, and a country that experiences continual political strife. As a result,  the country faces increasing vulnerability to climate-related impacts.

Mapping Climate Events & Climate-Induced Displacement

Guinea currently ranks 50 out of 191 countries in the 2024 Inform Risk Index and other notable rankings include 19 out of 191 countries in terms of Lack of Coping Capacity. In recent decades, climate-related disasters have increased in severity and frequency. For example, between 2008 to 2014, only 2 disaster events were reported that resulted in 4,800 internal displacements while between 2015 to 2022, over 15 disaster events and 44,000 internal displacements were reported.11 In 2015, severe flooding led to at least 25,599 individuals affected, 4,925 left houseless, and increased risk to the cholera epidemic. This is especially true as hospitals had already been highly burdened from the March 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak.12 More recently, in August of 2022, flooding affected more than 24,135 individuals, displaced at least 335 individuals, destroyed 93 houses, ruined 320 water points.13  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Guinea is $21.23 billion USD.14 Guinea’s agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate-impacts, especially as 97% of farming is rain-fed dependent.15 Short term impacts on the sector include rainfall variability and increasing temperatures.One of the country’s main food crops, a 5-25% decrease in maize production is expected by 2050 due to climate change, and a decrease of greater than 25% in production of maize is expected in the southern regions of N’Zérékoré and Kankan.16 Within the fishery industry, its estimated 40% of animal protein for the country is provided by this sector.16 However, alongside the impacts of  illegal fishing, petroleum pollution, and waste, the fishing industry is vulnerable to rising temperatures expected to affect the biology, distribution, and reproduction capabilities of many marine species, and thus key sources of food for the country.16 One of the countries in the West Africa region with the most rainfall, Guinea has an extensive water network extending 23 river basins with many hydropower facilities, yet these too are at risk. There are expected to be decreases in Fouta Djallon highland’s rainfall by 26% by 2100, the Konkouré River’s flow by 30-50% by 2100, and the Milo river’s flow by 70% by 2100.16 Expected decreases in rainfall and river flow will lead to extensive effects on Guinea’s hydropower facilities and therefore Guinea’s electrical grid. Overall, Under the RCP6.0 pathway, estimating an increase of global warming by 3 °C, Guinea will approximately experience a 4.99% decrease in GDP by 2067.17  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Overall, Guinea makes up 0.09% of global emissions.18 Under the Business as Usual Agreement, Guinea has committed to a 17% reduction in emissions by 2030 and 49% conditional decrease if reductions in land-use and forestry are accomplished. To do this, Guinea is improving upon its hydroelectric capacity through the commissioning of the Kaléta dam in 2015 and the more recent commission of Souapiti dam.19 Within the forestry sector, the country has taken the initiative to take the entire inventory of its forestry coverage, to reduce its per capita usage of fuelwood by 50% by 2030, and strengthen preservation efforts of 1,882,000 ha of forest land and protected land. In Guinea’s mining industry, as part of its ​​Mining Sector Development Program, the country will invest in clean technologies, prioritize biodiversity with the expansion of the mining sector, and develop risk management strategies. Currently, within migration, Guinea lacks comprehensive systems to track migration data. Moreover, a majority of Guinea’s policy supports foreign migration into Guinea for employment, but there is little to no national policies supporting immigrants, internally displaced persons, and refugee rights.20 However, the UNDP is currently supporting a four-year project (2019-2023) to improve upon Guinea’s climate monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems to support vulnerable populations at risk for climate-related disasters and potential displacement.21

Necessary Changes

Guinea has made significant commitments to reduce its emissions, target combating deforestation, improving upon its hydroelectric power infrastructure, implementing strategies to reduce emissions within its mining sector. However, Guinea remains a country with severe poverty and public debt of 35.5% of GDP (2022), making people and their government cash-strapped to prevent and overcome climate-related impacts.7 This is highly necessary as in order to accomplish Guinea’s NDC commitments, it needs $14.8 billion USD of funding. Therefore, it is important for the international community to support Guinea through further expansion of funding initiatives to support Guinea in their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Moreover, the international community must commit to an alleviation of external pressures to extract Guinea's natural resources, especially minerals, that have produced low economic benefit to the nation and inhibited its government’s abilities to support vulnerable populations in the climate crisis. This is especially true as foreign investment in bauxite extraction within Guinea, especially as China becomes Guinea’s top trading partner for bauxite, has been linked with severe human rights violations, devastation of ancestral farmland, pollution of water sources, and other environmental impacts.22 On a national level, Guinea must commit to more comprehensive policies to support migrant rights and data distribution as it has been cited for lacking the necessary infrastructure for migration policy. At the same time, Guinea must work to ensure its government becomes more inclusive and bolsters frontline communities participation in terms of a democratic economy. This is especially true as recent efforts to further electrify the country’s grid in terms of the Souapiti dam has come at the cost of an estimated 16,000 individuals displaced from 101 villages.23 With international support and intentional efforts by the Republic of Guinea, the country will be able to accomplish a sustainable and just transition.