Introduction to Guatemala

Guatemala, situated in Central America’s Northern Triangle, has a population of nearly 17 million people.1 The country’s climate varies according to its diverse landscape, ranging from humid coastal areas to cool highlands, tropical semi-dry savannah, and jungles.2 Currently and historically, Guatemala’s economy relies on an extractive agro-export model that prioritizes large-scale production over small-scale farmers.3 The agriculture sector employs more than 30 percent of Guatemalan workers, and frequent droughts linked to the climate crisis have significantly affected the sector and food security, which the COVID-19 pandemic has amplified.4 In addition to high poverty and food insecurity rates, violence and anthropogenic climate threats have created significant social instability, forcing many people to leave their homes.

Mapping Major Climate Events & Climate-Induced Displacement

Converging climatic events ranging from slow-onset increasing temperatures, decreased rainfall, and prolonged droughts are exacerbated by rapid-onset events such as hurricanes. In 2020, Tropical storm Amanda and hurricanes Eta and Iota pummeled most of Guatemala with heavy rains that caused flooding and dozens of catastrophic landslides and mudflows, which displaced 339,000 people, devastated crops, and destroyed local infrastructure.5 Like Storm Stan in 2005, Eta and Iota mainly affected rural areas with high poverty levels, and indigenous Maya Q’eqchí communities were the most impacted.6  Many families from the hard-hit areas migrated to the United States, pointing to the lack of recovery after the hurricanes that forced them to leave.7 Intertwined with climate-induced migration, many Guatemalans face significant displacement because of conflict and violence, though official estimates on the number of displaced people have not been updated since 1997 due to data constraints.8 Like the climate crisis, the United States has a special responsibility for this violence because it is a partial legacy of armed conflicts supported by the U.S. government9 and the U.S. deportation of gang members to the country in the 1990s and 2000s, laying the groundwork for the gangs that currently threaten the country.10

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The losses and damages associated with the 2020 Hurricanes Eta and Iota total around $775.5 million, according to the Guatemalan Secretariat for Planning and Programming of the Presidency.11 Eta and Iota resulted in significant losses in the country’s agricultural sector, decimating staple crops including beans, coffee, rice, and more, affecting around 280,000 farmers, many of whom were smallholders.12 Moreover, hurricane-related crop losses, volatile commodity prices, and the pandemic contributed to a doubling in the rate of acute malnutrition in children under five since 201913 and chronic food insecurity for 3.5 million Guatemalans.14 In addition to chronic malnutrition and food insecurity, the climate crisis will increase health risks for the poorest Guatemalans by exacerbating climate-sensitive infectious diseases such as respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, vector- and waterborne diseases, and chronic kidney diseases.15

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

The Government of Guatemala has made significant progress in mobilizing institutional leadership around climate-related challenges—particularly through its 2013 Climate Change Framework Law16 and subsequent 2016 National Climate Change Action Plan (PANCC),17 which outlines broad guidelines on climate action in the country. In its updated Nationally Determined Contribution, the government commits to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 11.2 - 22.6 percent relative to a business-as-usual scenario by 2030 and intends to implement sectoral climate adaptation measures focused on agriculture and food security, marine-coastal area, forestry, water resources management, human health, and infrastructure.11 At the community level, local organizations such as Tikonel work with communities like San Martín Jilotepeque to diversify agricultural practices to improve climate resiliency by combatting climate-related livelihood losses.18

Necessary Changes

Guatemala’s climate policies demonstrate its commitment to strengthening climate resilience; however, barriers prevent effective climate action. While the government is finalizing the total climate financing required, it will need significant financial resources from the international community to implement the adaptation and mitigation measures in its latest NDC.11 Guatemala faces several challenges in executing its climate policies, including inadequate collaboration across national and local levels, insufficient science-based climate information adaptation plans, and a lack of standardized climate modeling procedures.19 In partnership with the Rainforest Alliance, the Guatemalan government aims to increase adaptive capacity at the national and departmental levels and build climate resiliency in Guatemala’s most vulnerable regions.20 They are facilitating enhanced access to localized climate information and improved adaptation response plans constructed collaboratively with subnational actors, including vulnerable communities.20

At the same time, the United States must enable safe pathways for migration. While the Biden Administration is on the right track in acknowledging the “root causes” of migration in Central America,21 in contrast to the Trump Administrations’ dehumanizing zero-tolerance policy,22 the plan ignores that U.S. domination, foreign investment, and military force are the “root causes” of the conditions on the ground that the policy alleges to overcome. Because of these interventions that increased poverty and inequality in Guatemala and its disproportionate contribution to the climate crisis, the United States has an obligation to provide adaptation assistance to Guatemala and provide reparations to climate-displaced people, including the equitable sharing of responsibility for relocation and resettlement.9