Introduction to The Gambia

The Gambia, a coastal nation located in Western Africa, has a population of 2.7 million people1 , of which 36% is rural.2 Ranked 174 out of 190 countries in UN’s Human Development Index3 , the Gambia exhibits a significantly low GDP per capita of US$840, along with a low life expectancy of 62 years4 and a high infant mortality rate of 34 per 1000 live births.5 Moreover, an alarming 53.4% of the population resides below the national poverty line, with poverty rates in rural areas being as high as 70%.6 The Gambia’s climate zones vary by geography, with a hot semi-arid climate in the South, and a tropical savanna climate in the North.7 In recent decades, the West African country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly storms, floods, heat waves, and droughts. These events have had large impacts on the country’s main economic sectors, including the agriculture sector, which employs 49% of the working population8 and contributes about 22.6% of the country's GDP.9 The enduring cycle of poverty coupled with climate-vulnerable economic sectors and legacies of British colonialism compound the country’s  vulnerability to the climate crisis.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

The Gambia is vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranking 144 out of 180 countries in the Notre Dame Global Index which considers a nation's susceptibility to climate change and other global issues, along with its preparedness to enhance resilience.10 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are storms, droughts,  floods and epidemics, which account for over 95% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.11 Between 2001 and 2020, the country experienced 7 separate years of floods, and 2 separate years of drought. Between 2008 and 2022, 13 disaster events were reported with floods internally displacing 57,000 Gambians and storms displacing 13,000.12 In July of 2021, severe overnight windstorms, heavy rain, and floods led to the death of 10 people in Gambia’s western districts and displaced more than 1,500 people, in addition to damaging houses and utility infrastructure.13 In 2022, the country recorded the most severe levels of rainfall seen in over three decades with floods affecting an estimated 13,000 households.14 Beyond climate related disasters, violence and conflict in the Gambia and neighboring Senegal has displaced 171,000 people in Gambia,15 and climate impacts in the form of drought, floods, and storms threaten to exacerbate existing conflicts and instigate new ones.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Gambia is US$ 2.27 billion16 and the country is classified by the United Nation as one of the Least Developed Countries (LDC). The climate crisis is anticipated to exacerbate existing economic hardships and compromise key ecosystems. A 1 meter rise in sea level could flood more than 8% of the country's land area, including 61% of existing mangroves, 33% of swamps, and over 20% of lowland rice cultivation zones.17 Furthermore, it could submerge Banjul, the capital of the Gambia, resulting in an estimated cost of approximately $217 million and greatly affecting the country’s critical tourism industry.18 With over 99% of the country’s crops being rain-fed and one third of the population, predominantly residing in the rural regions, dependent on agriculture for livelihood, the Gambia’s underserved populations are at high-risk due to the increasingly severe and frequent droughts.  The yields of the country’s staple crops, such as millets, sorghums, and maize are expected to significantly decrease by 2050.19 By 2085, crop production in the country is expected to fall by 35%, decreasing exports and increasing dependence on imported goods.20 One in four households in the country is food insecure and over half the population live below the national poverty line. Therefore, the fall in crop yields would exacerbate an already critical situation. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Gambia, constituting 0.03 percent of the world's population, is responsible for less than 0.01 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.21 The West African nation pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 49.7 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario.22 The second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Gambia has an overall rating of “1.5 degree celsius compatible” when compared to the country’s fair-share contribution.23 The Gambia is implementing an extensive ecosystem-based adaptation project aimed at enhancing climate resilience over vast regions and promoting sustainable development in the country. The initiative has two major components: restoration of degraded ecosystems, and fostering the creation of businesses and management committees centered around natural resources.24 Keeping in line with the country’s commitments, the Gambia formulated an ambitious roadmap titled “Long-Term Climate-Neutral Development Strategy 2050” to attain a state of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.25 The emphasis of the plan is on 5 major sectors: Energy, Agriculture, Waste Management, Transport, and Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF).26

Necessary Changes

The Gambia is bearing a disproportionate share of the devastation caused by climate change even though the country has an insignificant contribution towards causing it. Despite that, the West African nation is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. It is now imperative for the international community to support Gambia in a transition that is inclusive of its unserved and underserved communities. In order to address the challenges of rising sea level and widespread inundation, the country needs to develop comprehensive and proactive adaptation strategies such as constructing protective infrastructure, implementing coastal zone management plans, and protecting key ecosystems such as mangroves and swamps. Building the climate and economic resilience of Gambia's vulnerable farming communities is of high importance, and can be advanced by promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, fostering sustainable farming practices and adopting nature-based solutions. As Gambia navigates the intricate web of challenges in the region with both intensifying climate disasters and escalating violence, comprehensive strategies that incorporate conflict resolution, resource management, and sustainable development must be pursued holistically in the region to mitigate the impending risks and foster a more resilient future.