Introduction to Fiji

Fiji is a multi-island country located in the South Pacific Ocean, comprising of  332 islands, around 110 of which are inhabited.1 Its population of over 930,000 (2023)2 people is about 41% rural.3 Fiji’s climate is tropical marine, its geographic location and size making the islands highly susceptible to cyclones, flooding, and rising sea levels. This vulnerability is further exacerbated by Fiji’s political economic structure, largely influenced by its relationship with international actors including the United States, Australia, and Singapore.4 Fijian continues to rely on agriculture and tourism as its main economic sectors,5 with tourism alone accounting for nearly 40%6 its GDP of $5.49 billion USD (2023).7 Fiji’s heavy reliance on natural resources and its exposure to extreme weather events underscore the intense climate impacts that threaten its economic stability and ability to respond to climate disasters. The British colonization of Fiji in 1874 introduced a centralized administration and a system of land tenure that divided land into native reserves and crown land.8 This colonial legacy has left lasting challenges in land ownership and governance, complicating Fiji's ability to effectively protect and manage its land in the face of the climate crisis. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

As ranked by the  ND-GAIN Index, Fiji is considered the 72nd most vulnerable country and the 68th most prepared to address climate change.9 Long-term warming in Fiji is projected to be below the global average, with temperatures expected to increase by 0.6°C to 2.6°C by the 2090s compared to the 1986–2005 baseline.9 Despite this, Fiji’s low-lying coastal regions and small outer islands are particularly at risk from rising sea levels, increased frequency of cyclones, and coastal erosion. Over recent decades, Fiji has experienced a growing number of climate-related disasters, enduring approximately 15 tropical cyclones each decade since 1970.10 Thousands of people have been internally displaced due to such climate events, compounded by the challenges of limited safe relocation sites and the cultural and social ties of communities to their land. Between 2008 and 2023, Fiji experienced 33 major climate displacement events that included  wet landmass movements, floods, storms, and wave action. Between 2008 and 2015, there were 58,800 reported displacements attributed to such events, and between 2016 and 2023, displacements rose to 154,440.11  One of the most recent and severe climate events was Tropical Cyclone Harold in 2020, which led to widespread destruction across Fiji, displacing over 10,000  people and exacerbating the vulnerability of already at-risk communities during the COVID-19 pandemic.12 This came only four years after Tropical Cyclone Winston, a highly destructive Category 5 cyclone that hit Fiji in February 2016, taking the lives of nearly 50 people and affecting over 540,000, approximately 60 percent of the islands’ total population.13

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Climate disasters, particularly tropical cyclones, pose serious challenges to Fiji's development objectives. These events not only disrupt economic growth but also strain the nation's limited resources, hindering the long-term progress and stability the islands need to achieve lasting resilience. The Fijian government estimates that the impact of Tropical Cyclone Winston amounted to $900 million USD, more than 20%of the country's GDP. This includes $ 600 million USD in damages to physical assets and $300 million USD in economic losses from disruptions to the production of goods and services.13 The cost of climate change-related disasters in Fiji is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating that floods and cyclones could cause asset losses up to 30 percent higher than current levels. The financial losses specifically attributed to climate-related disasters are projected to increase by 50 percent by 2050, with storms, floods, and cyclones currently resulting in annual losses of approximately US$245 million.14 Reducing Fiji’s climate vulnerability through measures like strengthening urban areas, improving infrastructure, and enhancing agriculture and fisheries is estimated to cost approximately $4.5 billion USD over the next decade under business-as-usual projections.15 Non-economic loss in Fiji includes the loss of sense of place, identity, and social cohesion, deeply tied to Indigenous Fijians' connection to their ancestral land. This was poignantly illustrated by the displacement of the Tukuraki community after a 2012 landslide, which left villagers in makeshift homes for nearly five years. These temporary homes were also destroyed in the following years by cyclones like Evan and Winston, underscoring the intricate web of vulnerabilities faced by Fijians.16

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Among the Pacific islands, Fiji leads in its adaptation and mitigation efforts in response to the climate crisis, including pioneering large-scale community relocation projects to safeguard its populations from rising sea levels.17 Currently, nearly 50 Fijian villages have been identified for possible relocation within the next 5 to 10 years due to the impacts of the climate crisis, with six villages already relocated.18 The Fijian government has also updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement in 2020, reaffirming its commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Additionally, in 2021, Fiji took a significant step towards sustainability by implementing a nationwide ban on single-use plastics.19 The country is also a vocal advocate for climate action on the global stage, often representing the interests of small island developing states (SIDS) in international forums. Fiji’s leadership also includes a shift from traditional "gray" infrastructure to nature-based solutions (NbS) for disaster risk reduction. These NbS, such as the restoration of mangrove swamps and marshes, not only protect coastal communities but also enhance biodiversity, fisheries, and carbon sequestration. An example is the government’s plan to construct over a dozen nature-based seawalls, including a community-led project in Dakuinuku village, where natural boulders are used with the consent and involvement of local residents, including women and Indigenous elders.20

Necessary Changes

Fiji demonstrates a high propensity for resilience and mitigation, supported by robust political will and efforts aligned with the needs of the islands’ most vulnerable populations. However, it is necessary for Fiji to center a transparent approach to governance in order to maintain such progress. Fiji's lack of a fully functioning democracy, ranking 94th globally,21 compounded by the concentration of power under former Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, has hampered the country’s ability to effectively address the climate crisis. Bainimarama, who was ousted in 2022 after 15 years in power and later jailed for ties to corruption, exemplifies the governance challenges that Fiji must confront.22 Without tackling corruption and fostering a more democratic and inclusive governance structure, Fiji’s climate efforts will remain insufficient, as the islands’ most vulnerable communities will be easily siloed for private interests. Fiji’s main industry, tourism, presents a substantial environmental challenge. The challenge of over-tourism in the Pacific Islands increases the strain on local resources and communities, and while a key economic contributor, tourism is attributed to significant environmental degradation, including pollution, resource depletion, and damage to vulnerable ecosystems like coral reefs.23

Building true climate resilience in Fiji and across the region requires dismantling corruption and fostering inclusive, democratic governance that continues to center the traditional stewardship of the islands, which has been key to effective adaptation thus far, ensuring that these efforts are both culturally rooted and regionally unified in the face of the climate crisis.