Introduction to Eritrea

Eritrea, a coastal nation located by the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa, has a population of 3.62 million1 , of which 58% is rural.2 Ranked 172 out of 190 countries in UN’s Human Development Index3 , the country is one of the poorest in the world with a low GDP per capita of $643.8 and a low life expectancy of 67 years.4 Eritrea’s climate is mostly hot desert with some hot semi-arid regions in the south5 , and over the past 15 years, the country experienced five6 major droughts. The agricultural sector of Eritrea, which is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture, employing 62% of the population7 and contributing 14.1% to its GDP8 , is at great risk due to climate change which threatens to increase prolonged drought and uncertainty in rainfall patterns. Other key sectors include mining, which plays a substantial role in contributing to the country's GDP, with a primary focus on extracting natural gas, oil, gold, zinc, and potash.9 Eritrea has a complex history of colonization, conflict, and independence, having gained sovereignty in 1993 after a 30-year war with Ethiopia, but ongoing conflict and persistent human rights crisis continue to drive out Ertirean’s into exile.10 By increasing the competition over scarce resources, climate change is functioning as a threat multiplier and aggravating the traditional causes of conflict in the region.11

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Eritrea is extremely vulnerable to climate events, ranking 178 out of 182 countries in the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, which evaluates a country's vulnerability and capacity to address climate change.12 The country has a moderate ranking on the Global Climate Risk Index 2021 which only assesses the impact of extreme weather events.13 Eritrea is frequently subjected to occurrences of both natural and human-induced climate disasters, particularly droughts and floods.14 In 2008, floods affected over 1.7 million people in the coastal nation.15 Between 2015 and 2016, the climatic conditions in Eritrea worsened due to an El Nino-induced drought, which severely threatened the lives and livelihoods of smallholder farmers residing in the Anseba region in northern Eritrea.16 Between 2008 and 2021, Eritrea experienced five significant droughts which affected more than 3.3 million people. As of Spring 2023, the Horn of Africa is experiencing one of the most severe climate-induced emergencies of the past forty years, as the region grapples with the devastating effects of a prolonged drought following years of below average rainfall.17 Such climate change impacts act as catalysts for the ongoing conflict in Eritrea as they amplify the strain on limited resources.  The influx of Eritrean refugees entering Ethiopia exhibited a sharp rise, with the monthly average of arrivals, which was as low as 250 to 300 in 2009, increasing to an average of 2000 per month in 2014.18

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Despite Eritrea's insignificant emission and role in causing climate change, the country is disproportionately bearing the brunt of the climate devastation, particularly in the form of severe and prolonged drought. During the period 2006 to 2018, there were 6 droughts and 5 flood events recorded, with an estimated damage of over US $495 million and 1.2 million households affected.19 Data from 1912 to 2005 indicates a decline in rainfall for the central and southern highlands, where rain-fed agriculture is a dominant economic activity.20 A routine screening of nutrition levels in 2021 showed an increase in acute malnutrition in most of the country’s regions compared to 2020 levels.21 The impacts of the climate crisis are afflicting Eritrea’s water resources, agriculture yield, sanitation and health, and particularly child and maternal health.22 Along with degrading water quality and decreasing groundwater levels in Eritrea, the climate crisis is also depleting base flows, which are crucial water sources for urban areas, rural communities, livestock, and various industries.23

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Eritrea is responsible for less than 0.01% of the global cumulative greenhouse gas emission, but the country has started implementing mitigation measures with the view that addressing the impacts of climate change on a global scale necessitates a collective commitment from all involved entities.24 Eritrea’s NDC is oriented around a carbon-neutral sustainable development pathway.25 The country pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 12.6% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario or 38.5% with substantial international support.26 Eritrea is taking initiatives for safeguarding and improving biodiversity, encompassing activities such as the conservation of soil and water, the establishment of afforestation and reforestation projects, and the creation and enlargement of terrestrial and marine protected areas.27 The country is advancing these efforts through increased community involvement, enhanced financial investments, and addressing gaps in regulatory frameworks and enforcement capacities

Necessary Changes

The escalating impacts of the climate crisis in Eritrea, in the form of severe droughts and intense floods, highlight the pressing need for a just transition that is inclusive of at-risk communities. Building the climate and economic resilience of Eritrea's vulnerable farming communities is of utmost importance, and can be advanced by promoting a diversified economy, implementing climate-smart agriculture practices, and adopting nature-based solutions. Eritrea's susceptibility to climate variability, extreme weather events, and long-term climate change is greatly amplified by its limited adaptive capacity resulting from weak governance structures and inadequate infrastructures. Eritrea did not have any national elections since its independence in 199328 , and in spite of its membership in the UN Human Rights Council, Eritrea has consistently refrained from engagement29 with international human rights mechanisms. It is vital to enhance transparency, strengthen accountability mechanisms, and foster citizen participation in the governance structure of Eritrea to ensure that adaptation measures are benefitting the most underserved and unserved populations in the northeast African nation.